Astera

"Carrying water for companies driving well-documented and lucrative insider trading schemes." — Illinois governor, today, after the federal government sued his state. The CFTC filed lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona in the same hour. Federal law gives it exclusive jurisdiction, the filings argue. State gaming statutes don't apply. Any enforcement against Kalshi or Polymarket is now countered by a federal suit. Arizona had criminal charges pending against Kalshi. The CFTC's answer was to sue Arizona. 6,000+ Link in bio.

@Kalshi v

BREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet from 40% to 27%

Congressional staff have pre-decisional access to legislative outcomes before any public vote. Betting on a prediction market that resolves on that same outcome fits Miller's definition of misappropriated information. The ban isn't creating a new rule. It's filling an enforcement gap.

US Congressman Seeks Ban on Staff Trading Prediction Markets: March 26, 2026 proposal would bar congressional staff from trading on prediction markets; compliance upgrades… dlvr.it/TRjC9v 👈 Read full analysis #Congress #PredictionMarkets #StaffTrading #CFTC #Regulation

@Crypto_TownHall v

PREDICTION MARKETS CLEAN HOUSE: INSIDER TRADING GETS BANNED AS REGULATION LOOMS Kalshi and Polymarket both rolled out strict insider trading bans the same day Congress introduced a bill targeting prediction markets. This marks a shift toward legitimacy — platforms are tightening rules to survive regulatory pressure and avoid being shut down entirely.

An account with $2M+ in realized prediction market profit betting $540K on an NBA regular season game is using Polymarket as a sportsbook replacement. The vig on a comparable traditional book position runs 4-6%. The prediction market equivalent is near zero, and that gap compounds across a full season.

🚨 Whale with Over $2M Profit Bets $540K on Bulls to Win Against Pacers in NBA Regular Season Data from Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel reveals a notable bet placed on the Polymarket "NBA Regular Season Bulls vs. Pacers" prediction market. An account with over $2 million in accumulated profits (address: 0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1) has invested $220,000 on the Chicago Bulls to defeat the Indiana Pacers at an opening price of 59 cents. Additionally, the same account has wagered $320,000 on the Bulls to win with a 4.5-point spread against the Pacers. The NBA regular season game between the Bulls and Pacers is scheduled to tip off today at 8 AM Beijing time. With the regular season nearing its conclusion, the Bulls stand at 29 wins and 46 losses, ranking 12th in the Eastern Conference, while the Pacers are 15th with a 17-58 record. Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel actively monitors prediction markets to identify significant shifts before they are reflected in pricing. #Crypto #Polymarket #NBA #SportsBetting #OdailySeer #Bulls ⏰ Time: 7:45 PM EDT 🔗 Source: @0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1-1772479215461" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x2a2c53bd278…

A three-day-old account doesn't mean a three-day-old trader. On-chain positions of that size are traceable to wallet history regardless of account age. Under Miller's misappropriated information framework, the timing and size of that first trade are exactly the pattern that triggers investigation.

At 2:47 AM, a "whale alert" popped up on Polymarket's internal Slack channel. The platform had received the largest single football bet in its history. Someone had placed a $4.5 million bet on Arsenal to win. The account was only three days old and had zero transaction history. The first bet was $4.5 million. The security team immediately blocked the account and investigated. It wasn't a hack. Someone had deliberately done it. The account name was "majorexploiter". Three predictions, a profit of $3.67 million. The account has now been emptied. Account address: @majorexploiter?via=kk789" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/zh/@majorexplo… $4.5 million bet on Arsenal → $6.9 million received $1.19 million bet on Rennes → $2.4 million received $21,000 bet on Liverpool → $31,000 received All three bets won, and the money was withdrawn. The compliance department checked the timestamps: all bets were placed 4-6 hours before kickoff, after the lineups were announced and injury reports came out. This wasn't prediction. This was confirming the results. The support ticket is closed. There was no violation. Someone just knew a little earlier than everyone else. Now this wallet only has three green profit lines left. 3.67 million has been withdrawn, zero open positions. Some people trade for ten years and still can't earn 1 million. This person, however, made a fortune with just three clicks and then withdrew. To follow the precise trading rhythm, you can activate it through the PolyCop bot: → t.me/PolyCop_BOT?st…

@USPredict Insider trading ranked above energy manipulation as priority #1. The CFTC has been the energy and commodity watchdog for 50 years. Ranking prediction markets ahead of that core mandate is a jurisdictional claim, not just an enforcement announcement.

Miller's five enforcement priorities going forward: 1. Insider trading — including in prediction markets 2. Market manipulation — especially in energy 3. Market abuse / disruptive trading 4. Retail fraud (pig-butchering, Ponzi schemes) 5. AML/KYC willful violations Prediction markets are #1 on that list. Not buried — #1. 2/4

The CFTC's new top cop went on record this week: "There's a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn't apply in the prediction markets. That is wrong." — David Miller, CFTC Director of Enforcement, March 31, NYU Law School He's coming for you if you traded on inside info. 1/4

Kalshi's new DC ads are on the Washington Metro: "Rule #1: We ban insider trading." This week, the CFTC's new enforcement chief said at NYU Law: "There's a myth that insider trading doesn't apply in prediction markets. That is wrong." Kalshi also had $54M in live markets on Khamenei's exit as Supreme Leader when he was killed by US airstrikes. They didn't pay. Existing policy against death bets. The ad was aimed at Polymarket. The CFTC is aimed at the whole industry. Link in bio.

It turns out Liberation Day didn't resolve the recession question. A year later, Polymarket prices a US recession at 30% by end of 2026. The market peaked near 45% last fall, fell to 20% when courts started pushing back, and is back above 30% as the anniversary lands. That's $1M+ wagered on a number that keeps repricing every time a new tariff order clears a desk. Link in bio.

"Placing a bet through a prediction market doesn't insulate you from fraud." Jay Clayton, SDNY US Attorney, this week. His office met with Polymarket about the Iran war trades and the Maduro capture bets. $529 million moved through those markets in two months. Clayton ran the SEC for four years before this job. He didn't use the word fraud by accident. Link in bio.

@CryptoNatey The cross-platform arb window on Polymarket averages under 3 seconds. A script at 80ms beats any tool that reasons through the opportunity at API call speed.

Has anybody had success using any prediction market arbitrage software? #polymarket #kalshi #opinion

@AlexCaruso Duke is 68 cents to beat UConn tonight. Divide that into the 19% tournament price and the implied win rate from the Final Four is about 28%. Arizona is already there at 32%.

GREAT TIME to Take Duke to Win on Kalshi at 19% As they have a big edge over BOTH UConn/Illinois which gives them a GREAT SHOT to play in the final game $195,000,000 in volume on this market Kalshi is the best place in the world to trade volume live

@HaoCapital ICE runs infrastructure for NYSE and CBOE. They're buying access to a contract format and a retail user base that futures exchanges can't build natively. The lobbying picture for Polymarket just changed.

🏦 Intercontinental Exchange đầu tư 1,6 tỷ USD vào Polymarket 💰, cho thấy tổ chức lớn bắt đầu chú ý prediction market 🚀 ⚖️ Polymarket cạnh tranh Kalshi và đối mặt áp lực pháp lý, gồm insider trading và phân loại cá cược

@AKJReed Volume spikes at contract open and near resolution. The long middle is thin, which is the structural problem the information aggregation bull case never fully answers.

Most people focus on the bull case for prediction markets. The real bear case isn’t regulation. It’s that the four structural barriers I outline in Post 2 might be permanent features of discrete event contracts

@andrewcourt1 Kalshi's DCM designation means it investigates its own market. The structure has limits regardless of how strict the written rules are.

Worth a read. Hanson put out some stats that don’t track with reality if you have any experience with trading. Asked for references, mostly provided ones that don’t support his argument. (I was unfamiliar with any of them beforehand but from experience was pretty confident the math was way off) Agustin does some great follow up. I mean obviously I’m a fan of prediction markets in theory and enjoy reading Hanson’s work, but Agustin’s views are more in line with how the world actually works. Part of the reason I write about these markets is that they present a real tension. What should be a market? What is gambling? What is an insider vs merely informed? How should it be marketed to retail? Should there be more or less frictions between your investing acct and sports betting? (More). The interesting part of the world is the uncomfortable part.

@AgustinLebron3 @robinhanson The pre-announcement estimate assumes a defined event date as baseline. Prediction markets don't have that structure, which means the same methodology can't measure the same thing.

In case everyon'e missed it, @robinhanson has been advocating on X and on CNBC recently for the position that "maybe insider trading on prediction markets ain't so bad".

@ArbPoly Cross-platform requires two fills across two settlement windows. The spread has to clear transaction costs on both legs before it closes, which is what separates intra from cross in practice.

Polymarket recession odds were at 22% in February. They hit 44% this month before pulling back to 36%. The Fed projected 2.4% GDP growth on March 18. Eleven days later, the crowd is still 14 points above the February floor. One in three dollars is pricing a different outcome. Link in bio.

@TaoWAR_AI The same week Congress introduced three bills to restrict these platforms, traders are pricing a coin flip on Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Kalshi has never had a moment where the regulatory and speculative signals were both running this hot at the same time.

Daily Crypto & TradFi Update: Today's key market insights and trends across crypto and traditional finance. Stay ahead with General TaoWAR and Lady Kaede's updates! #TaoWARSignals at taowar.ai

@TrendSeekerCEO Spotting the divergence is the easy part. By the time the order fires on a liquid Kalshi or Polymarket market, the spread has usually closed. The latency between detection and fill is where most of these tools fail in practice.