PredictionMarkets.us

The PredictionMarkets.us beta is live. Live pricing across @Kalshi, @Polymarket, and @PredictIt — same event, different prices, side by side. More platforms coming soon. We built it because nobody else made sense of this market. predictionmarkets.us What's inside: • 86 articles and 170+ guides — regulatory, platform, troubleshooting • Arbitrage finder + whale trade tracker • Live event pages built before the news cycle catches up • Glossary, leaderboard, alerts, watchlists One search. One place to compare.

The KY-04 market is no longer shrugging off the polling shock. A May 11–12 Quantas poll had Ed Gallrein ahead of Thomas Massie 48.3%–43.1% before leaners, and 53%–45% after leaners: linknky.com/news/2026/05/1… But traders still make Massie the favorite — just a weaker one than this morning: @Kalshi: Massie 61¢, down from 67¢ at 8am ET — kalshi.com/markets/kxky4r… @Polymarket: Massie 64.5¢ — polymarket.com/market/will-th… That is the useful signal: markets are fading the poll, but not ignoring it.

Finland at 54¢. Australia surging at 16¢. Israel at 31% to win the TELEVOTE. Eurovision Grand Final is TONIGHT — and $167M in prediction market volume is saying it's Finland's to lose. The jury vs. televote split is the real story. 📷 *predictionmarkets.us/articles/eurov…* Live: predictionmarkets.us/articles/eurov… predictionmarkets.us

Trump leaves Beijing with no binding Iran deal. Iran seized another ship near UAE as talks wrapped. @KobeissiLetter — @Polymarket Hormuz markets had priced Xi-as-mediator optimism in. Summit produced joint language but zero Chinese commitment to pressure Tehran. Watch those prices.

President Donald Trump departed Beijing without any immediate sign that the US and China have resolved thorny challenges dogging their fractious relationship, but with a freshly stabilized relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping – for now. cnn.it/49QZNZE

@OfficialNBARefs @DetroitPistons @cavs @spurs @Timberwolves @Polymarket has Cleveland at 75¢ to close tonight. @Kalshi puts CLE at 61% to win Game 6. Detroit came back from 3-1 down against Orlando last round. The 25% left in the market isn't noise. 7 PM ET. polymarket.com/event/nba-play…

Tonight’s NBA Playoff Referee Assignments 🏀🏆 EAST SEMIFINALS – GAME 6 ⏰ 7PM ET 🏀 @DetroitPistons at @cavs 🏀 15 Zarba, 60 Williams, 3 Buchert Alternate Official: Ray Acosta WEST SEMIFINALS – GAME 6 ⏰ 930PM ET 🏀 @spurs at @Timberwolves 🏀 19 Capers, 58 Tiven, 64 Van Duyne Alternate Official: Brian Forte Replay Center Referees: Curtis Blair

Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair. His first FOMC meeting is June 16-17. The crowd is not pricing a soft landing OR a hard one. They're pricing both roads open. @Kalshi: 19c chance of a recession this year (NBER definition). @Polymarket: 33c chance of a rate HIKE somewhere in 2026. @Polymarket: 60c chance rates end the year at 3.75%. Cut if the economy breaks. Hike if inflation re-accelerates under a more hawkish chair. The spread is unusually wide. That's what "Warsh uncertainty" looks like priced in real money. @ForecastEx -- the only CFTC-regulated platform with both DCM and DCO status -- covers Fed decisions as a primary asset class. kalshi.com/markets/kxrecs… polymarket.com/market/fed-rat…

Running order slot 17 dropped last night. Lordi won from slot 17 in Athens 2006 -- Finland's only Eurovision victory. @Kalshi: Finland 55c. @Polymarket: Finland 54.3c. Bookmakers: 37%. Prediction markets are 18 points more bullish on Finland than traditional books. The crowd is pricing the Lordi narrative and the slot advantage. Bookmakers aren't moving as fast. $167M total volume. Grand Final: Saturday May 16. Vienna. kalshi.com/markets/kxeuro… bbc.com/news/live/cx21…

Two days in Beijing. Xi said "if I can be of any help." Trump said "we did discuss Iran." @Polymarket priced the Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 at 9.5c. The crowd called it. Three price tiers. Three different answers: - May 31: 9.5c -- Xi's offer moved this zero points - June 30: 33.5c -- down 20c from a week ago - Dec 31: 66.5c -- the crowd still sees a year-end path The summit produced warm words and no mechanism. Prediction markets were never fooled. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira… bbc.com/news/live/cvgz…

Scottie T1

PGA Championship — Round 1 movers (or lack thereof) Scheffler shot 67. Co-leads at -3. First time in his career leading a major after R1. The market reaction? Barely moved. • Kalshi outright: 17¢ → still 17¢ • Polymarket: 16¢ → 16¢ • Polymarket implied: 33.5% Translation: traders already had Scheffler priced as the favorite. A 67 was the expected outcome. The real action is in the sell-off: • Rory McIlroy (+4): 4 straight closing bogeys. Outright dropped 10¢ → 9¢ • Bryson DeChambeau (+6): 39 on his front 9. Drifting toward 4¢ • Cameron Young (E): The "hottest player in golf" coming in. Stuck at 7¢ Quiet riser: Min Woo Lee — co-leader at -3, surged from 2.3¢ pre-tournament to 4.9¢ on Polymarket overnight. Best %-gainer on the board. Best Kalshi vs Polymarket divergence: Round 2 leader market — Kalshi has Scheffler at 7.5%, Polymarket has Jon Rahm at 18.2%. Same player tomorrow, two very different reads. R2 tees off 6:45a ET on ESPN+. Aronimink is playing tougher than anyone expected. kalshi.com/markets/kxpga polymarket.com/event/pga-cham…

Scottie Scheffler's position after Round 1 ➡️ tournament result in 2026: • @TheAmExGolf T3 ➡️ Win • @WMPhoenixOpen T89 ➡️ T3 • @ATTProAm T62 ➡️ T4 • @TheGenesisInv T63 ➡️ T12 • @APInv T24 ➡️ T24 • @THEPLAYERS T40 ➡️ T22 • @TheMasters T6 ➡️ 2nd • @RBC_Heritage T20 ➡️ 2nd • @Cadillac_Champ T27 ➡️ 2nd He's T1 after Round 1 @PGAChampionship.

Round 2 at Aronimink. Scottie Scheffler opens 67, T-lead. Markets agree: • Kalshi outright: Scheffler 15.5–17% • Polymarket: 16% ($110M+ in PGA volume) • Make the cut: 92.5% Donald Ross design, two par-5s. Precision course. The bombers don't get an edge here. Kalshi: kalshi.com/markets/kxpga Polymarket: polymarket.com/event/pga-cham…

Eurovision is turning into a clean cross-platform calibration test. Finland is almost exactly aligned: @Kalshi: 47¢, $11K 24h volume — kalshi.com/markets/kxeuro… @Polymarket: 47.9¢, $6.1M 24h volume — polymarket.com/market/will-fi… Same probability, very different liquidity profile. That is the story: when the market agrees on the favorite, platform distribution still decides where most of the action lives.

@Kalshi is running two Scottie Scheffler bets at the same time: 75c -- wins at least one golf major in 2026 34c -- wins the PGA Championship (starts TOMORROW at Quail Hollow) 41-point "scope premium": four shots at a title vs. one specific tournament. @Polymarket has the PGA Championship price at 30.5c -- 3.5 points more bearish than @Kalshi. The implied math: if Scheffler has 75% odds to win any major this year and 34% on the PGA specifically, the remaining three majors carry a combined ~62% chance of delivering his title. That number does not appear on any single market line. @Kalshi: kalshi.com/markets/kxgolf…

@IBKR just turned prediction market fragmentation into a routing problem. One screen. One account. Three exchanges. @Kalshi, CME Group, and @ForecastEx -- all unified under IBKR's order routing, which automatically finds the best net price across all three venues. No more hopping between accounts. No more guessing which exchange has the better fill. "Prediction markets are reshaping how investors think about risk and uncertainty." -- Milan Galik, IBKR CEO Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour: "IBKR is the gold standard in the global financial broker industry." Initial focus: climate events, economic indicators. tradersmagazine.com/news/interacti… Source: BusinessWire / Traders Magazine May 14, 2026

Interactive Brokers just pushed prediction markets another step toward normal brokerage infrastructure. IBKR announced a unified interface that lets clients access Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx prediction-market contracts from one platform, with cross-venue liquidity, fee-aware net-price comparison, and routing to the best available venue. That matters because the next phase of prediction markets may not be "which venue wins?" It may be "which broker routes the event contract best?" Source: markets.ft.com/data/announce/…

Round 1 underway at Aronimink and @Kalshi is already repricing. Scheffler 16¢ (was 17¢ pre-tournament). McIlroy 8.6¢ (was 9.3¢). Young 6.8¢ climbing. Grand Slam vs. title repeat: market giving edge to neither on Day 1.

House Oversight just opened a prediction market investigation. Chairman Comer confirmed subpoenas are on the table for platform records. 7 House Democrats cited one trader who made ~$1M with a 93% win rate on Iran military operations. This is what the shift from scrutiny to enforcement looks like. predictionmarkets.us/articles/house… predictionmarkets.us

Colorado eliminated Minnesota in OT last night. Kulak goal at 3:52. Now the markets say: 71c chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final. But the real number is what happens after that: @Polymarket: 40.2c Cup / 71.5c West = 56.2% implied win rate in the Final @Kalshi: 41c Cup / 71c West = 57.7% implied win rate Consensus: Colorado gets there. Whether they win -- that's still a coin flip. $3.2M on Polymarket's Cup market says this matters. @Polymarket Cup: polymarket.com/market/will-th… @Kalshi Cup: kalshi.com/markets/kxnhl/…