PredictionMarkets.us

CoinMarketCap changed how people track crypto we're doing the same thing for prediction markets every market. every platform. one place. predictionmarkets.us 👀

The market already started moving: @Polymarket US forces enter Iran by Apr 30: 57.5c YES ($1.6M 24h) @Polymarket crude $100 by March 31: 79c YES — up from 71c this morning alone @Polymarket Iran ceasefire by Apr 30: 31.5c YES $11.5M 24h on the Iran cluster. Ground troops prep was already priced at 57.5c. This could spike it. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira…

*US MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIAL GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN: CBS *OIL PRICES RISE AFTER REPORT US PREPARES GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN

Netanyahu out by end of 2026: @Polymarket: 47.5c YES — $8M in 24h volume @Kalshi: 39c YES — $47K in 24h volume Same outcome. 8.5-point gap. Two platforms, two metabolisms. Polymarket is trading inside a live geopolitical cluster (Iran, Hormuz, Israeli coalition politics). Every headline gets priced instantly. Kalshi prices coalition math more coldly, with far lower volume. The gap is the story. 🔗 @Polymarket: polymarket.com/event/netanyah… 🔗 @Kalshi: kalshi.com/markets/kxlead…

Here's how it works: • $1B prize insured by SIG Parametrics (Susquehanna) — actuarially near-zero cost • Free entry, just verify your identity on @Kalshi • Real prize: $1M to best imperfect bracket + $1M to charity • Media generated: Inc, USA Today, NY Post, Gambling Insider — all in 48 hours Warren Buffett ran the same stunt for Quicken Loans in 2014. Nobody collected. The $1B headline costs Kalshi almost nothing. The identity-verified sign-up funnel is worth tens of millions. It's the cheapest new-user acquisition in prediction market history. gamblinginsider.com/news/118227/ka…

Kalshi is offering $1 billion for a perfect March Madness bracket. It has never happened in recorded history. The odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. The actual guaranteed payout: $2 million. This isn't marketing. It's arbitrage. 🧵

Sri Lanka refusing US aircraft access is another domino. Prediction markets are tracking the full Iran escalation ladder: @Polymarket US forces enter Iran by Apr 30: 57.5c YES ($1.6M 24h) @Polymarket Iran ceasefire by Apr 30: 31.5c YES @Polymarket crude $100 by Mar 31: 79c YES — up 8 points today alone Every "access denied" headline is moving these. x.com/unusual_whales…

The market is not waiting for the world to un-lazy itself. @Polymarket crude oil hits $100 by March 31: 79c YES ($9M vol). That's up from 71c just this morning. @Polymarket crude hits $110: 26c. $120: 14c. Zero tankers through Hormuz in 24h. The Strait carries 20% of global oil. The "lazy" world is about to learn what that costs. polymarket.com/event/will-cru…

JUST IN: Elon Musk says the world got "lazy" by relying on Strait of Hormuz for energy

Russell 2000 in correction and S&P at 6-month lows on the same day. Prediction markets are pricing this hard: @Polymarket recession odds: 36-37% YES — up sharply @Polymarket crude oil hits $100 by March 31: 79c YES (was 71c this morning — 8 points in a session) Small caps lead into recessions. The crowd is paying attention.

BREAKING: The Russell 2000 index officially enters a technical correction, now down -10% from its record high.

Down ~1.2% today, testing 6-month lows around 6,530. Bigger picture: @Polymarket recession odds just jumped to 36-37% (1,178 posts trending right now). @Polymarket Fed April no-change: 94.8c YES ($3.1M 24h). Powell not expected to blink yet. Crude oil $100 by March end: 79c and climbing. The equity selloff and oil spike are pricing the same story. polymarket.com/event/fed-deci…

JUST IN: S&P 500 at lowest price in 6 months

@PredictAction Couldn't agree more. When you give people access to well-regulated prediction markets, the adoption speaks for itself. This space is just getting started.

Tens of millions of Americans use prediction markets. So let’s keep ‘em safe and regulated.

@KennyHugo15396 @Polymarket Fair point — Iowa State’s a 2-seed so the bracket says they’re not a sleeper. But market is. At 5.7¢ they’re priced like a 4th or 5th option while betting volume is surging. Seed says chalk. Money says something else.

@USPredict @Polymarket How can a 2-seed be considered a "sleeper?"

NCAA bracket is printing money on Sweet 16 Friday. $5.8M in 24h volume @Polymarket and the board has never been this compressed this deep in the tournament: 🏀 Michigan: 18.5¢ 🏀 Arizona: 17.8¢ 🏀 Duke: 17.5¢ Three teams within 1¢ of each other. The market genuinely cannot decide.

@Polymarket The crude oil market is pricing this. @Polymarket crude $100 by end of March: 71¢ ($2.53M 24h vol) — jumped from 69.3¢ this morning as the Hormuz news broke. Zero tankers = 20% of global oil/LNG supply frozen. The market is not overreacting. polymarket.com/event/will-cru…

BREAKING: Zero tankers loaded with crude have passed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

x.com/NateSilver538/… @NateSilver538 Duke’s narrow escape moved the @Polymarket needle: Duke dropped to 17.5¢ (was neck-and-neck with Michigan at 18.5¢ before the scare). Michigan 18.5¢, Arizona 17.8¢, Duke 17.5¢ — tightest Sweet 16 top-3 spread we’ve seen on the board this year. polymarket.com/event/2026-nca…

@Polymarket US forces enter Iran by April 30: 57.5¢ ($1.63M 24h vol). Thousands of Marines + three warships = the market’s April 30 odds just got a lot more interesting. Was 56¢ this morning. Dec 31 is at 68.5¢. The crowd expects this to escalate further. polymarket.com/event/us-force…

BREAKING: The US Pentagon is sending thousands of additional Marines and three warships to the Middle East. Up to 2,500 Marines from the USS Boxer group are being deployed.

Markets already priced it. @Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30 = 36.5¢ ($551K 24h vol). Blockade/seizure would instantly resolve YES. 63.5¢ is the current crowd on “Iran holds Kharg” — that’s now a direct bet against the WSJ report. polymarket.com/event/kharg-is…

The Trump administration is considering seizing or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island, per WSJ

Complementary read: US forces enter Iran? @Polymarket prices: - April 30: 57.5¢ ($1.63M 24h) - Dec 31: 68.5¢ The crowd expects US boots inside Iran before year-end with better than 2-in-3 odds. Meanwhile @Polymarket, Kharg Island still under Iranian control thru April 30 = 63.5¢ NO (36.5¢ YES). polymarket.com/event/us-force… polymarket.com/event/kharg-is…

US x Iran ceasefire by @Polymarket: 📅 March 31: 6.5¢ ($1.55M 24h vol) 📅 April 15: 20.5¢ 📅 April 30: 32.5¢ 📅 May 31: 42¢ 📅 June 30: 53.5¢ 📅 Dec 31: 70.5¢ The crowd says this ends — just not before May. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira…

Iran’s FM said it on camera Sunday: “We never asked for a ceasefire.” Trump said Iran “wants to make a deal” — but terms “aren’t good enough yet.” Both can be telling the truth. Neither side is ready to blink. But someone priced the odds of this ending anyway. 🧵