Big day for Bitcoin & other risk assets.
If we have hot PPI inflation in the morning and a Hawkish Powell in the afternoon, it could take us lower.
PPI breaks at 8:30am EEST with forecasts at 0.3% MoM. Powell speaks at 2pm.
Take note.
@gnarleyjs Thank you for a sensible post. There are so many dumb retail seeking to borrow conviction. Now all the dumb retail expect the bear to end in October from following day counting influencers. I have no sympathy for these sheep
Last year, I expected a $140k Bitcoin top.
Others were calling for $200k plus.
We were all looking the same way.
That is usually the signal.
The market was extremely overbought in 2025.
📈People wanted higher.
Then it became extremely oversold in February.
Many alts printed new all time lows.
📉People wanted lower.
Metals were running, while crypto sold off harder than everything.
And here is the key part:
🚨 Literally zero major top indicators fired. Not one.
The top was front run.
Why would the bottom not be the same?
Now it is quiet.
You can feel people have checked out.
This is how cycles reset.
Even from here with $BTC at $74K, there is still huge upside.
If you still have capital, you did not lose.
You are still in the game.
⏳ Just time and patience now.
This is the CNBC clip today where Tom Lee says he sees $SPX hitting 7,300 in March. Yes +7.7% rise in 15 trading days.
He then says a -20% bear market may show itself later this year.
AI economies will run on microtransactions. Traditional banks can’t handle them.
Agents paying fractions of a cent for data, compute, APIs, and services.
Crypto was literally built for that.
Was that Bitcoin's bottom?
This long-term BTC vs. Gold chart could give a clue.
In the 3 previous cycles, it's taken about 14 months to go from peak to bottom. These also coincided with bear market bottoms.
It's been 13 months since the BTC / Gold high last year...
🚨FEAR-DRIVEN SELL-OFF MAY HAVE MARKED THE BOTTOM
“Markets are taking bad news in stride… this looks like the makings of a bottom,” says Tom Lee.
He says the recent fear-driven drop reset positioning and could set the stage for opportunities ahead.
US investors bullish on Bitcoin.
The Coinbase Premium Index is at its highest level in almost 3 months.
This shows US users on Coinbase are paying a premium on BTC vs. international exchanges.
We've also had 3 consecutive days of ETF inflows.
Odds of Clarity Act passing have surged because Trump posted about it.
There was also the news that Brian Armstrong has met privately with Trump.
It comes down to stablecoin yield, and the banks aren't going to give up their monopoly without a fight.
Let's also not forget that it needs Dem support to pass & they aren't going to support a bill without some Defi provisions and ethics controls.
Its still going to be an uphill battle.
The #Altcoins have been destroyed.
Most of them are down 60-80% since October.
$TAO is one of them, it's down 75%.
I've been accumulating this one over the past weeks, additionally, for the altcoin portfolio.
The reason is that I think that we're close to a low on the altcoins as we're seeing wicks everywhere.
Really keen to be seeing this market unfold during the coming week.
@krugermacro Sensible post Alex. I suspect 3 was much bigger than the market thinks. I look at this list and there are few I would have got with foresight.
What went wrong with crypto
1. 10/10 slaughter (will I get sued if I mention Binance?).
2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) hangover.
3. Reversed flows from crime syndicates: major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October.
4. Quantum fears (real).
5. Enormous AI opportunities (opportunity cost):
- capital pivoting to AI
- talent pivoting to AI
- miners pivoting to AI
6. Perception of Bitcoin as American: few Chinese buyers, who had been behind the metals uptrend in large numbers.
7. The Swamp & Institutions taking over, overcrowding OGs and retail
- Pivot from Cypherpunk/Rebel tech to ETF tech.
- Crypto used to be for misfits & geniuses, now it's a line item in a 401k.
8. Trump association and political risks: what happens once Democrats are back?
9. Minimal innovation (since Hyperliquid).
10. Solana casino massacre (thank Pump Fun & the Memecoin Supercycle).
11. Oversupply of coins: there are 29.91 million cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap.
12. Almost every coin in the top 200 is grossly overvalued and has had a broken chart for a while.
13. Never ending array of token launches that pump then dump to oblivion where only insiders profit.
14. Dead digital gold narrative.
15. Several categories of equities imploding (e.g. Software).
That killed momentum. With sellers dumping more aggressively than usual on every pump, and buyers not showing up to buy the dips as much any longer.
And then came the Warsh nomination (beating Hassett and Rieder), and the market suddenly became deeply aware that Warsh is a strong advocate of a small balance sheet: goodbye Queantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) dreams, hello Quantitative Tightening (QT) fears.
That is what happened.
Please note this post is strictly descriptive, it tells you what happened, in the past. Prices have already crashed. Several metrics such as volume, liquidations, implied volatility and options skew indicate that a local bottom is likely in.
Some personal news: I’ll be stepping down as Director of Growth at the Monad Foundation.
I've been working on Monad over the last 3 years.
I’ve spent the last 9 years in crypto and been full time in the industry since joining the VC team at CMS in 2020.
After fielding 1,000+ startup pitches, I came across Monad and knew it was the opportunity of a lifetime. I went all in to help bring it to market.
Building Monad from the ground up alongside Keone, James, Eunice, and the broader team has been the most rewarding experience of my career.
We set out to build a decentralized, EVM-compatible L1 that truly scales. After years of work, it’s incredible to see that vision come to life. The tech is best-in-class and the ecosystem has 100+ teams full of builders ready for the next wave of users.
I’m proud we built this with integrity, no shortcuts, and a long-term mindset. Monad is now in a position to succeed and in great hands, with exciting initiatives coming in 2026 from both the Monad Foundation and Category Labs.
I’ll be transitioning into an advisor role and will remain actively involved in supporting Monad and the broader ecosystem.
Excited for what's ahead - updates to come.