Caoloc

@aj_inapi Why not accelerate away from oil. Find a suitable alternative and thus tender the Middle East to irrelevance

I’m going to say something that some people in the MAGA movement and Republican circles are not going to like. You can support President Trump and still question things - that’s fine. But some of the opposition to Operation Epic Fury is completely missing the bigger picture. I keep hearing: “No more wars.” “Focus only on America.” “Not our problem.” That sounds good emotionally, but geopolitics does not work like that. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, this is no longer a Middle East problem. That becomes a global power problem overnight. Shipping lanes, oil, the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices, terrorism, regional nuclear arms race - all of that hits the United States economically and strategically whether people like it or not. Then there’s something most people don’t even think about: the Petro Dollar. If the U.S. loses control of global oil trade influence and the dollar stops being the world’s reserve currency tied to energy markets, America doesn’t just have a foreign policy problem - you now have an economic survival problem. Inflation, debt, interest rates, cost of living - everything changes. Some people are acting like President Trump just woke up and wanted a war. Presidents don’t approve major military operations for fun. They do it because they believe the long-term threat is bigger than the short-term political damage. You don’t have to like war. Nobody should. But pretending the world is not dangerous and that America can just ignore nuclear ambitions, global trade routes, and energy markets is not how superpowers survive. Sometimes the decision isn’t between war and peace. Sometimes the decision is between acting now or dealing with something much worse later. You're an American, act and talk like one who understands this important aspect of your country's survival as a super power or become like the UK.

@LisaDaftari If they want, they need to pay the price. It is not a bloodless task. They may be willing but not at any costs

I have been researching and reporting on Iran for over two decades. The question I keep hearing from Western media is whether anyone can say with confidence what Iranians want. I can. Despite Internet blackouts, isolation, and the very real threat of death for speaking out, the Iranian people have told their story clearly and repeatedly, at enormous personal cost. What is striking is how confidently those who have never spoken to a single Iranian are now speaking for them: that Iranians don’t want this war, that they are content to live under this regime, that they have no capacity to reclaim their country. The evidence across multiple cycles of protest, from the Green Movement through Woman Life Freedom through the deadly January protests, tells a different story. Iranians want the end of the Islamic Republic, not its reform. They have said so clearly and repeatedly. Read more: nypost.com/2026/03/31/opi…

@GrindeOptions It was open in the first place

The strait of Hormuz remaining closed after the U.S. eventually leaves will only cause Iran to go deeper into trouble. The rest of the world will likely band together and open it back up. The U.S. doesn’t need the strait open for our personal use and consumption needs, the rest of does. In the coming weeks and months, we will have the opportunity to see how the rest of the world reacts to this as the U.S. has said it will not help keep the strait open. Things are getting interesting. POTUS is playing a game a chess that’s for sure. People doubted him and he’s getting it done. ✅

@ianmiles The lack of civilian uprising in Iran to topple this regime is a key weakness. The regime was soften by US and Israel but where are the people? Don't they want this?

The world is now waking up to the fact that Iran was, and is, a paper tiger. Their weapons are trash. Their threats are empty. The IRGC is an unfunny joke and their propagandists are cheap prostitutes. Prior to the war, we were told that they had a "peer-level" fighting force to the United States. They can't even hurt the UAE, and Israel reduced their leadership to ash and cinder. They are not Americans, Russians, or Chinese, that's for sure. They are not even Ukrainians (whom I respect despite my personal dislike of Zelensky).

@Osint613 You do not own it. You did not build it. If you did, it is your right to charge toll for the services. Now it is just like a street thug extorting money

Iran Revolutionary Guard senior official Mohsen Rezaee: “We, Iran, can close the Strait of Hormuz. But even if the whole world gathers, they cannot reopen it… It takes seven to eight hours for a ship to enter, turn, pass the narrowest part, and exit.”

@HayekAndKeynes We need proof that those have been really achieved. Past strikes have shown it missed the mark and Trump declared as a resounding success

For the life of me I do not understand the people who want to define victory as an unwinnable ground war yet keep calling Trump the moron. He ended Afghanistan, he’s not going to kick off a similar operation next door. The dude literally erased the leadership (twice), the military, and the US has come out completely unscathed. They have already killed all the staff involved with the nuclear program. Iran’s only response has been to take hostage global oil flows and bomb innocent third parties - even then Trump has not taken the bait. He did as much as he could without causing WWIII and is now leaving without a scratch. If that is not victory, I do not know what is.

@shanaka86 I don't think Trump planned it. Maybe you could sell the idea to him, so that you can get something

In January 2026, the United States overthrew Nicolás Maduro and seized operational control of Venezuela’s oil exports. In February 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz. These are not separate events. They are the same strategy executed in sequence. Before the first bomb fell on Tehran, the US had already redirected 900,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude away from China and toward American, European, and Indian refiners. Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura now market PDVSA oil under General License 52, with all proceeds flowing to a US Treasury account. China’s share of Venezuelan exports collapsed from over 600,000 barrels per day to 48,000 in February, a 67 percent drop in weeks. The US did not announce this as war preparation. It announced it as democracy promotion. But the barrel does not care what you call it. Now connect the second move. China buys 80 to 91 percent of Iran’s oil exports, approximately 1.38 million barrels per day transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is now closed. Iran’s export infrastructure is under sustained bombardment. Kharg Island, which handles 90 percent of Iranian crude, is on the Pentagon’s contingency list. In two months, the United States has cut China off from its two largest non-traditional crude suppliers simultaneously: Venezuela by regime change, Iran by war. Combined, China has lost access to roughly two million barrels per day of supply it was receiving 60 days ago. This is why Dar is in Beijing today. China is not mediating the Iran war out of altruism or diplomatic ambition. China is mediating because it is running out of affordable oil. The country that controls 90 percent of the world’s rare earth processing, that supplies BeiDou navigation to Iranian missiles and neodymium magnets to American interceptors, that holds the leverage to end or extend this war, is sitting at the negotiating table because the United States methodically cut its energy supply lines before the first missile was fired. The grand bargain is not a theory. It is a pressure system. The US needs Chinese rare earths to rebuild 2,400 depleted Patriot interceptors. China needs Hormuz open and Venezuelan barrels restored. The US controls the Venezuelan spigot. China controls the rare earth pipeline. Each side holds a chokepoint the other cannot survive without. The deal writes itself: rare earth guarantees for oil access, semiconductor export relief for Hormuz security, Taiwan status-quo assurance for NPT compliance. Every variable has a price. Every price has a counterparty. And both counterparties are now desperate enough to pay. Venezuela was the opening move. Iran is the middle game. Beijing is the endgame. The molecule that connects all three is crude oil, and the country that controls where it flows controls the terms of the peace. The US did not stumble into this war. It secured alternative supply, redirected barrels away from its principal competitor, launched the campaign that closed the competitor’s primary import route, and is now negotiating from a position where the competitor must choose between its rare earth leverage and its energy security. That is not improvisation. That is the most sophisticated energy weapon deployed since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, except this time, America is not the victim. It is the architect. The arithmetic leads to Beijing. It always did. The only question was whether Beijing would arrive at the table voluntarily or be starved into it. The answer, as of March 31, is the latter. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@NewsBFM There's something wrong with the businesses that the country gets into. Low end, low margin - of course cannot afford to pay good wages

Malaysia needs reforms beyond periodic minimum wage hikes, as weak income growth threatens consumer spending, warns Bank Negara. While past increases have boosted earnings for lower-income workers, they have also caused wage compression, distorting the broader labour market. 🧵1

@ryangrim Does Iran really have a legitimate claim on the Straits to levy a toll? Did they build it, enhanced or did some value add changes? No, it's just strong arm bullying no different from the street thug asking for protection money

If this ends with European and Asian and African countries paying Iran to get oil through the strait, that is actually a fairly stable arrangement because all parties will have an incentive to keep it stable (except of course Israel and the U.S., the real source of global instability)

@academic_la It's preparation, intelligence and tactics. All these were lacking or overridden by the pseudo military experts aka politicians

The US military has not fought a real enemy in decades. Now that it has been faced with one, it is doing badly. That is no coincidence. The military was built to make money for arms companies, not to win wars. Read my latest for free.

@TheEconomist Trump needed to study The Art of War with better teachers.

Realising that Donald Trump is scared of economic disruption, and that cheap drone attacks and even cheaper threats can cause a lot of it, Iran has kept these up economist.com/united-states/…

@RyanRozbiani Iran doesn't own the straits. Doing this toll is akin to thuggery like getting protection money

JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: The toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran refers to, could generate an annual income of around $100 Billion dollars via NYT Trump will allow this as it will be the “reparations" part of the peace deal that Iran has asked for. Like it or not, all wars end with a deal. The U.S. might have the military upper hand, but Iran put a chokehold on the global energy economy and the world can not afford for this war to keep going.

@Arrogance_0024 You know how Trump treats friends/allies. No one will go the extra mile for him, it's simply not worth it or even appreciated

Why did NATO allies follow Bush in Iraq but refuse to follow Trump in Iran? What exactly has changed? What is the "problem" now? Or should I rather say: WHO is the problem??

@academic_la Trust Trump with his judgement and this is what you get

The US is on the verge of stopping the war with Iran without any achievements. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is because the political bleeding and the price of oil are too much for Trump to continue to withstand. What this means: 1) Trump and his aides concluded that forcing the strait open would take longer than his 4–6 week timeline, so the plan is to wind down hostilities after degrading Iran's navy and missile capabilities. 2) The plan is then to push diplomatically for free passage and if that fails, lean on European and Gulf allies to lead the reopening effort. 3) Iran would then likely demand that Israel stop bombing before they agree to open. That shouldn't be a massive problem, since Israel is running out of targets there anyway. 4) Iran received a lot of money from oil and a lot of new weapons and technology. They will use that to rebuild their regional power. 5) It appears very likely that Iran is going to pursue a nuclear weapons seriously for the first time, instead of pursuing the goal of being a threshold state. 6) The United States will lose a lot of its influence in the Gulf and the Middle East due to this disaster. That will pave the path to Chinese domination in the region. The US appears ready to conceded a historic defeat in the Gulf. American power will never be the same.

@NewsBFM Politicians should be the ones actively curbing the rise. Yet they are the main perpetrators. Society has not matured enough to condemn such politicians whenever they step out of line. Is there hope for the country?

The Malaysia Racism Report recorded a record high of 107 racism-related incidents last year, the highest since its inception. Most cases were linked to public discourse and policy, parliamentary debates, and social settings, reflecting the growing influence of political rhetoric. 🧵1

@TheEconomist The world needs to move away from oil consumption sooner than later. Added benefit is the Middle East will become a no interest zone, making Iran irrelevant. That's a better way to win a war

America has no easy way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran may not be able to force Donald Trump to end the war by keeping it shut economist.com/middle-east-an…

@_0xghost_ There are plenty of smart people to choose from. But Trump surrounds himself with the yes men

Here’s the entire set of unfortunate circumstances of how we found ourselves on the verge of another GFC: 1. Trump was misinformed, he thought Iran was another Venezuela, he would blow up the regime & ppl would overthrow the rest of the govt 2. As a result, he never thought through the rest of it 3. He never game theoried the possibility of Iran taking over the Strait of Hormuz 4. Iran is in control now bc they have a stranglehold on huge percentage of global energy shipping & are destabilizing the region & petrodollar 5. TRUMP thought he could TACO himself out of the situation like he did with the tariff talks & other business deals 6. This is not a business deal, Iran is dug in, has been betrayed countless times, sees this as an existential war, their final stand & now that they have the upper hand, they aren’t negotiating anything 7. Only way to resolve this is through force, which will be the 2020s version of Vietnam 8. Iran is fighting a different kind of war, they don’t care how many casualties they have, this is do or die for them. Their mentality is more like kamikazes or those Japanese solders who were still in the jungles 30 years after the war was over. Point being this war isn’t judged by casualties or damage- Iran is willing to take more pain. 9. In summation, this is a global financial crisis, end of American empire kind of war, which America has gotten itself into unnecessarily by a leader who thought it would be over in 3 days, didn’t think it all through and thought he could manage it like a real estate deal.

@PhillipsPOBrien The US may have the most advanced weaponry but it's military tactics are second grade. I don't think it's the lack of talent, its politicians interfering

If the US war on Iran ends up with the Iranian regime still in power and Iran able to charge tolls in the Straits of Hormuz, it will be the quickest and most comprehensive defeat that the US has ever suffered—and alarms bells should start ringing loudly about the future of US power.

@malaymail It's an absolute necessity, not only for Malaysia but the world to reduce if not eliminate the dependency on oil. This time, the war with Iran shows how vulnerable it is. What will be the next?

The Malaysian government is exploring the potential of nuclear power as a strategic response to the global energy crisis sparked by the US-Israel war against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Amar Fadillah Yusof said the move, which is part of the 13th Malaysia Plan, is a crucial step towards strengthening the nation’s long-term energy security and supporting its clean energy goals. “The need to assess the potential and feasibility of nuclear energy is increasingly relevant in the context of a changing global energy landscape, influenced by geopolitical uncertainty as well as instability in fuel supply and prices,” Fadillah, who is also the minister of energy transition and water transformation, said in a statement today. Several Asean countries are experiencing energy crises due to the US-Iran war and Hormuz Strait closure, which disrupted oil and LNG flows critical to the region

@orrdavid I'm astounded at the amount of grovelling to Trump, defending something completely incorrect just to please the master deal maker

The Hormuz blockade strategy is from 40 years ago. It only made sense back when it actually hurt the USA. Now that we have cheap shale oil, the strategy is obsolete because Iran blockading the rest of the world's oil doesn't actually hurt the USA.