Luimoreg

I built this thing called Clicky. It's an AI teacher that lives as a buddy next to your cursor. It can see your screen, talk to you, and even point at stuff, kinda like having a real teacher next to you. I've been using it the past few days to learn Davinci Resolve, 10/10.

I’m starting to think this is the way

BREAKING: 85% chance Democrats win the House this year, an all-time high.

The “Magnificent 7” are all down YTD… But the story underneath is very different. $MSFT -25% $META -19% $TSLA -17% $GOOGL -13% $AMZN -12% $NVDA -11% $AAPL -8% At first glance… looks bearish. But look deeper: Growth is still strong. $META 25% revenue growth $NVDA 65% revenue growth $GOOGL ~18% revenue growth $MSFT ~17% revenue growth These are NOT slow businesses. Now look at valuations: $META 17x forward earnings $MSFT 21x forward earnings $GOOGL 23x forward earnings $AMZN 25x forward earnings For companies growing double digits… That’s starting to look very reasonable. Then there’s the outlier: $TSLA 173x forward P/E - priced for perfection - lowest growth of the group That gap tells you how the market is thinking right now. Here’s the reality: Prices are down Growth is still there Multiples are compressing That’s how opportunities are created. Everyone wants to buy these names at ATHs… But THIS is where long-term positions are built. The real question: Which Mag 7 name are you most bullish on right now?

$META is being sued because its products are too addictive. Think about that for a second. The bear case is user engagement collapses. The legal case is user engagement is so high it's a public health concern. $115–135B in capex this year. $9T target by 2031. Being sued for being too good at what it does. Weird time to be bearish.

Thoughts on $META $META is one of the cleanest setups in the so called “mega caps” right now, but the reason it looks obvious is because the market is already giving you a lot of credit for what could go right. First, at ~17x forward earnings, you’re not paying a premium multiple for a business growing revenue ~20–30% with very high margins and massive free cash flow. That combination is rare at this scale. Most companies are either cheaper with less growth, or growing fast but burning capital. Second, the distribution advantage is probably the most underappreciated part of $META. When people talk about AI, they focus on models. $META edge isn’t the model, it’s that they can launch any product into Instagram, WhatsApp, or Facebook and instantly reach billions of users. That shortens the time between building something and monetizing it more than almost any company in the world. On the core business, this is still an advertising company at heart. And it’s a very good one. AI is improving ad targeting, conversion, and pricing. That’s driving a lot of the growth you’re seeing. So even without “new” AI products, $META is already monetizing AI well inside its existing business. IMHO what the market is still underestimating is how much of $META growth is coming from improving economics on the same user base, not just adding new users. This is not a user growth story anymore, it’s a monetization story, and those tend to be more durable and more profitable over time. WhatsApp is probably the biggest opportunity. If they get business messaging right, that’s a completely new revenue stream on top of a product that already has massive engagement. That’s high margin incremental revenue, and the market still doesn’t fully price it. On efficiency, this part is very important. $META showed it can cut costs, flatten the org, and still grow. If AI helps them maintain growth with a leaner cost base, margins expand meaningfully. That’s where a lot of upside can come from without needing heroic assumptions. So stepping back, $META today is a high quality, high margin business that’s growing faster than most mega caps and trading at a reasonable multiple. If they can grow revenue ~15–20% over the next few years and expand margins even slightly, you’re looking at a business that could be doing materially higher earnings without needing multiple expansion. The upside doesn’t require perfection. At the same time, they’re not sitting still. $META is investing aggressively into AI and infrastructure, with roughly ~$125b expected this year after spending ~$80b last year, and they even added ~$30b of debt to help fund it. They’re clearly not optimizing for short term margins. It will pressure free cash flow in the near term, but if they get the returns right, this kind of spend is what builds the next decade of growth rather than just protecting the current one. The risk is simple. ~$200b+ of investment has to earn a reasonable return. If it doesn’t, margins compress and free cash flow gets dragged down for years. At this scale, being slightly wrong matters. And since this is still an advertising business, it’s exposed to cycles and platform shifts. So while the upside is clear, the margin for error isn’t huge. 🌹

CLAUDE SONNET 4.5 JUST SAID THE THESIS ON $META IS BROKEN We gave a bunch of AIs $100K in the stock market starting in late November to see how they would do ... the Rallies AI Stock Market Arena Claude is tired of taking a loss in $META and just sold its entire position taking a $2.6K L The $100K Claude Sonnet 4.5 started with is now worth $89.8K while the $100K the S&P 500 started with is now worth $94.4K This is what Claude Sonnet 4.5 said about the move: Selling META – thesis is broken, not just the chart I’m out of META here, taking a ~$2.6K loss on ~26% drawdown to free up about $7.4K. - The “Big Tobacco moment” verdicts (New Mexico $375M, LA $4.2M) explicitly sidestepped Section 230 and opened the door to thousands of similar cases. - Stock is already wrecked (RSI ~21, down ~16% YTD, heavy negative momentum), but this isn’t a buy-the-dip when the business model itself is in the legal crosshairs. - Analyst targets like $853 were set pre-verdict and feel stale now. I’d rather redeploy into GOOGL, AMD, ANET, UBER, IWM with catalysts, not existential lawsuits.