PolyBackTest

Backtesting your trading strategies for free is now possible with the polybacktest.com API. - sub second snapshots - entire orderbook depth and liquidity - btc spot price - and much more Over a month of BTC Up/Down markets already recorded No costs. Try it at polybacktest.com

Thank you to everyone who applied. We received over 70 applications and have hired someone who will start very soon. Sorry we couldn't reply to everyone personally.

@HopeAlpha_ @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney congrats

Earned ~$13 in LP rewards today using just $1,000 in capital. Not huge, but steady. Looking to scale up once I rotate out of a few positions and things feel safer. LP competition is definitely getting tougher now… but we keep grinding. How are you guys doing on LP rewards lately?

@holy_moses7 wonder how relevant LP earnings will be for the airdrop

Huge market making rewards in Polymarket during March Madness. One new trader secured $20,000 in daily rewards while providing liquidity for live sports with roughly $800,000, all while remaining profitable. Other traders have also successfully captured 4-5 figure daily reward.

@Kropanchik @Polymarket @PolymarketMoney @PolymarketTrade really impressive profile, going to read your article

I just found a wallet making $60,300 profit on Bitcoin Up/Down markets with only a 28% win rate I'm copy trading it via t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… starting today. Here's the full breakdown: This guy loses 7 out of every 10 trades Still up +$60,300 How? He doesn't need to be right often. He just needs to be right big Here's the edge: > BTC Up/Down markets on Polymarket price "Down" at 2-4¢ per share > If it hits -> each share pays $1. > That's 25x-50x on a single 5-minute candle. His biggest trades this month: > $28,363 > $14,597 > $10,726 > $5,343 All Bitcoin. All Up/Down. All 5–15 min windows The math is simple: > Market misprices "Down" at 3¢ > You buy heavy > BTC dips for 5 minutes > 33x return Doesn't matter if BTC is pumping or dumping Up/Down markets work in BOTH directions That's the 1000x path nobody talks about - not leverage, not futures, not altcoins Pure mispricing. Pure asymmetry Wallet: polymarket.com/profile/0x30af… I'm copy trading this exact wallet through Kreo right now

@WhaleInsider Does this mean Polymarket could be valued at even higher then 22b?

JUST IN: Kalshi prediction market raises over $1 billion at valuation of $22 billion in new financing round.

@Abombination81 what's the liquidity

Free money right now. If you're not following me you hate money. Buy equal shares, pair costs 77.4c, guaranteed to win 1$ You're welcome

@itskkoma @Polymarket yo nice earnings

I’m starting to understand the @Polymarket LP game

@Abombination81 would have thought opportunities like this would be arbitraged very quickly

More free money. Not sure how many I should post... you just buy one of each token, You guarantee a win when the sum of all options is under 1$. Literally a money printer

We backtested a new strategy for guessing the direction of Polymarket up/down markets: The strategy rules (dead simple): - Check the Binance 8h perpetual funding rate just before a new market opens - If positive (longs paying shorts) and above threshold → bet YES/Up on the next Polymarket market at $0.50 - If negative → bet NO/Down at $0.50 - Exit: Hold until the Polymarket resolves - Double your bet after every win - Requires >50% win rate to be profitable 3,000 markets tested. 2,097 signals fired, 9 million+ snapshots analyzed, 4 thresholds tested: 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.1%. Best configuration? 0.01% - SOL: 56.7% win rate - BTC: 53.2% win rate - ETH: 50.6% win rate The thesis: Perpetual funding rates provide the purest real-time read on leveraged trader sentiment. When longs pay shorts, that momentum often spills into the next few minutes. We also tested this on 1hr markets. Surprisingly, it was negative at all thresholds. The strategy needs fine-tuning, but there definitely could be an edge here. If you want to run your own backtests, Polybacktest offers subsecond historical data going back a month. We used it to perform this backtest.

We tested whether ETH and SOL prediction markets are less efficient than BTC on Polymarket. They are. And one side is exploitable. Results: 5m and 15m timeframes, 3,000 markets, 10 million snapshots analyzed. Core thesis: Buy the side that's already winning. Set symmetric TP/SL. Let time decay and momentum do the work. Core strategy: When one side hits 85¢, buy it. TP at 95¢. SL at 75¢. BTC: 54.5% win rate, +1.0¢ per dollar, 752 trades. ETH: 60.6% win rate, +2.5¢ per dollar, 752 trades. SOL: 63.3% win rate, +2.9¢ per dollar, 776 trades. Inverse (buying dips, hoping for reversals): When one side drops to 10¢, buy it. TP at 20¢. BTC: 39.4% win rate, –21¢ per dollar. ETH: 35.5% win rate, –29¢ per dollar. SOL: 37.4% win rate, –25¢ per dollar. Only buying the winning side is profitable. We then tested more profitable configurations: ETH: 85¢ entry, TP +10¢, SL –5¢ → +3.4¢/dollar (752 trades) SOL: 85¢ entry, TP +10¢, SL –5¢ → +3.3¢/dollar (776 trades) SOL: 75¢ entry, TP +10¢, SL –10¢ → +2.9¢/dollar (810 trades) Next, to increase profitability, I want to test letting positions run past the TP then setting a sell limit at the TP level. E.g., buy at 85¢, hold past 95¢, take profit if price falls back to 95¢, otherwise hold to resolution. Why favorite buying works: ETH and SOL markets have fewer participants. The favorite at 85¢+ is underpriced and continues to 95¢ more often than implied. The SL caps downside at 1:1 or better, while the market delivers >54% hit rate. Dumb money isn't buying the wrong side, it's selling the right side too early. If you want to backtest your own strategies, polybacktest has sub second historical market data going back a month.

@V7musyo @Polymarket @PolymarketSport What’s the window to buy to after the event has ended

On @Polymarket you can find NO RISK predictions on the NBA. (There are plenty of opportunities here, you don’t have to stick to the NBA) Here is what I did yesterday during the games: 1⃣I opened ESPN and waited for the game to end (the score updates almost instantly there, there might be faster sources, but I haven't found them yet). 2⃣When it became clear on ESPN that the total would exceed 233.5, but the market on Polymarket hadn’t closed yet, I bought the position at ~0.98 and sold it about 10 seconds later. Profit: $6.37 3⃣I used the same strategy on the Cavaliers vs. Bucks game and made $2.74 I liked it and went for the next market, but missed the entry - happens sometimes. Balance: $368.58 Total profit: $9.11

@BenCrypt_ Yes

@polybacktest Is this real?👀

We're hiring a casual social media manager! The role: - Create 14 posts per week in a similar style to our current posts - Weekly KPI: 150k impressions (bonuses if you exceed KPIs) - Pay: $30–50 per post, depending on experience - Support and guidance provided - Weekly payments via crypto or PayPal - You'll receive PolyBacktest and AntiGravity subscriptions plus any other tools needed To apply, send us a message explaining why we should choose you and any relevant experience you have.

I'll check all requests in 24 hours, we'll respond to those we think are good applicants.

@cifangyiquan It’s on our website for anyone :)

@polybacktest Good job! I'm just wanting your data.

We backtested an Opening Range Breakout strategy adapted for Polymarket's BTC 5-minute markets. Across 4,389 trades, here's what we found. The strategy: When BTC moves past the price targets and the price is below the accuracy %, buy. - BTC moves $10 in first minute: 57% accuracy that side wins - BTC moves $10–25: 68% accuracy - BTC moves $50–100: 76% accuracy - BTC moves $100+: 99% accuracy The first 60 seconds of BTC price action predicts the 5-minute resolution quite accurately. If BTC moves up from the strike in the first minute → buy UP If BTC moves down → buy DOWN Hold to resolution. That's it. No indicators. No ML. Just momentum. When the market shows its hand early, it usually plays through. If you want to backtest your own strategies, PolyBackTest has subsecond historical data going back a month.

@dextrabot Can’t wait to see how it goes

Challenge Day 4 Update: The tiny-bet automation bot is now +$105. $500 in 30 days → I release it. If I fail → it gets deleted. Everything is fully transparent. Profile Below

@itskkoma @Polymarket Well done 💪

Not a bad day on @Polymarket 😚

@signalpilotlabs Sol already up

@polybacktest Sol and Xrp yet?