PolyBackTest

Backtesting your trading strategies for free is now possible with the polybacktest.com API. - sub second snapshots - entire orderbook depth and liquidity - btc spot price - and much more Over a month of BTC Up/Down markets already recorded No costs. Try it at polybacktest.com

@lucas_hby Good strategy, let's see

Messi se situe à 5,9 écarts-types (σ) au-dessus de la moyenne des attaquants des 5 grands championnats européens, en buts + passes décisives / 90 minutes. Explications En statistiques, la courbe normale dit que : 99,7% des individus sont dans les ±3σ À 5,9σ, la probabilité d’exister est inférieure à 1 sur 500 millions Imagine que tu prends tous les attaquants des 5 grands championnats européens, on a des des centaines de joueurs. Tu les ranges du moins bon au meilleur en buts + passes par match. La grande majorité des joueurs se retrouvent au milieu, c’est la bosse de la courbe sur le graphique Les très bons (Haaland, Lewandowski) sont déjà loin à droite de cette bosse. Messi n’apparaît même plus sur le graphique. Il est tellement loin que la courbe ne le représente plus. Si tu mesures la taille de tous les hommes français, la moyenne est environs 1m75. Quelqu’un à 5,9σ au-dessus ferait plus de 2m30. Ça n’existe pas. C’est ça Messi dans le football. C’est une anomalie Ça veut dire que statistiquement, un joueur comme lui apparaît une fois toutes les centaines de millions de carrières de footballeurs. Ô ne reverras probablement jamais ça de notre vivant, et c’est les maths qui le disent, pas juste une opinion. Messi est une anomalie mathématique

@armouredme What's the cause of this?

Claude is breaking down more often as June ends polymarket.com/event/will-cla… 7 down days in 23 days, and the pace is accelerating First three weeks averaged 1-2 incidents each Last three days alone already gave 2 more That shifts the daily rate from 0.3 to 0.67 Six days left at that pace adds roughly 4 incidents Final count lands around 11 9-11 at 65% looks fairly priced given the trend 12+ at 20% is quietly interesting Easy money on Polymarket?

@Kropanchik @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @poly_data @PolymarketSport Good write up

One World Cup team could finish this entire tournament without ever finding the net Board: [polymarket.com/event/fifwc-ma…] Zero goals across two matches already, shut out both times, and they are eliminated before this one even kicks off Their only real scoring threat is sidelined, so whatever they try tonight runs through players who have not scored all tournament The team on the other side has conceded almost nothing the whole competition, the kind of defense that turns a desperate attack into a long night The board already has a combo built for exactly how this ends, the favorite wins, the total stays low, neither side finds the net, three picks stacked into one ticket paying 1.7x Kickoff is in 12 hours After that the price stops being a question and starts being a result

@dobioprer @PolymarketSport I like your prediction

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar. Matchday prediction. Not the strongest start in the tournament, but still a team with more structure and quality compared to Qatar. Bosnia creates chances – the main issue was finishing. Qatar looked shaky defensively in their previous games and struggled against pressure. This feels like a good spot for Bosnia to finally convert chances into a result. My prediction: Bosnia & Herzegovina win. All picks are placed on @Polymarket.

@0xbobaaa What's his plan?

$3.6m wallet just went no on every favorite on the board swisstony, 129,312 predictions on record his profile: @swisstony/?r=bobaonee" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@swisstony/?r=… six matches, six no's on the chalk biggest two: $100k on japan not winning, $99k on the usa not winning both coinflips the market priced at ~50c he doesn't fade teams, he fades the name on the shirt 129k predictions deep and he's against every side the casuals are buying pull his live book on @TycheTerminal: t.me/Tyche_Polymark… so who's wrong, the $3.6m wallet or the favorites market?

@ol_onX I will take that combo

Found a combo for 2.6x profit on Polymarket These picks sounds pretty simple Scotland vs Brazil over 2.5 Switzerland vs Canada over 1.5 Brazil should score enough themselves. In the second match both teams are already thinking about the next round, so 2+ goals looks very realistic. Looks safe, isn't?

@Gustafssonkotte Backtest them with us 💪

I PULLED 5,562 BITCOIN MARKETS OFF-CHAIN. THE PRICE IS PERFECT Five thousand five hundred sixty-two 5-minute BTC windows on Polymarket, every one with its true resolved outcome. I wanted to know if the market's price is honest or if there's a crack to exploit. Here is the answer in one curve. Probability the window closes UP, by where the price sits versus the strike: - 50+ points below strike: closes up 7% - 20 to 50 below: 21% - 5 to 20 below: 29% - right at the strike: 51% (a pure coin flip) - 5 to 20 above: 77% - 20 to 50 above: 81% - 50+ above: 93% Look at that middle row. At the strike it is 51%. Exactly a coin flip. And the further price has already moved, the more certain the outcome, in a perfectly smooth line. This is what an efficient market looks like. The price isn't lagging reality, it IS reality. There's no gap between where the price sits and what actually happens. I spent months looking for a crack in this curve. Next posts: where I looked, and why a 65% win rate still loses money. Repost if you've ever assumed a prediction market was dumber than it is.

@joostienXD Always read the rules folks

Everyone calls Polymarket a scam when they lose money, but I will bet that you didn’t even read the rules The US x Iran permanent peace deal rules are extremely YES friendly It says that ANY agreement qualifies if it explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have ended or will permanently cease ...and MOU literally says “immediate and permanent termination of military operations.” Trump quite literally could've co-hosted a livestream with Iran saying "we permanently stop shooting" and it would've resolved YES

@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport Let's run it back

Yesterday’s predictions: 4-. Overall Polymarket World Cup record: 23+ and 25-. Honestly, there’s not much to say. A complete disaster in terms of analysis from me. The record speaks for itself, and my job now is to turn it back in the right direction. That’s exactly what I’ll be focusing on over the next few matchdays. Quick recap from the day: > Cristiano Ronaldo became the first player in history to score at 6 different World Cups. > Didier Deschamps’ mother has passed away. The France manager will leave the team’s camp and miss the match against Norway to attend the funeral. > Atlético Madrid are reportedly filing a complaint against Barcelona with FIFA. > Palestra is a Chelsea player. The London club beat Inter to his signature and will pay more than €55 million. Last season, the Italian defender was named Serie A Defender of the Year.

@bckfv_eth This was crazy

finally won my first combo on Polymarket it was a 7-leg combo at 6.7x odds that turned $41 into $268 funny enough, I tried a bunch of much safer combos before this and none of them hit 😭 a lot of combos got ruined today because England failed to beat Ghana luckily I took Ghana not to win instead of backing England outright sometimes that’s all the difference between a winning ticket and a losing one now I’ve got a bit more ammo for future combos

@santiroy_28 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport Nice stimmy rewards by Polymarket

Update: @Polymarket has finally distributed the June 20 LP rewards. Check your accounts if you haven't already. For me: • ~$78 in total LP rewards from yesterday + June 20 distribution • Additional profit from football trades • Yield earned Current stats: • $2,305 total LP rewards • Rank #1128 / 155,373 • Top 0.72% Slowly climbing the leaderboard, one day at a time.

@0xSurferX You have to test out all the times

🚨 THE CLOCK IS WHY YOUR BOT BLEEDING And you can't even see it for now... Spoiler: your strategy is fine. It's just trading at the WRONG times. There are specific time windows where bots get chopped to pieces. Most devs never map them. I logged every single session and was shocked. On 5 and 15 min markets, certain times of day are pure chaos. Price flips direction over and over inside one window. Your bot enters on a clean signal, the market flips, flips back, flips again, and you're stopped out on noise that meant nothing. These aren't random bad days. They're the same clock slots, again and again. My bot was red before I realised what the real problem was. Now it's over $24k clean profit: [@l5zn1bwom8etsk?via=surfer" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@l5zn1bwom8ets…] Here's where the damage actually clusters: > NYSE open is the worst by far The cluster around the opening bell is carnage. One window logged 16 direction flips on average. Another single 9:30 slot took a $537 loss off 3 flips. The whole 8:45 to 9:45 stretch is a meat grinder. > NYSE close Late afternoon spikes again. One slot averaged 6 flips with 11 at its worst. Another logged 10 flips in a single window. > London / Europe open Around midnight a fresh wave of money hits and chops everything up. 6 flips, real losses, every time that session opens. > Asia transition and late evening The 10:15 to 11:00 stretch is brutal. One window averaged 9.5 flips and peaked at 16. Another logged 16 flips outright, then a later slot ate a $354 loss. See the pattern? Every one of these is a session handover - one region's traders logging off, another's logging on. That's when conviction dies and price just whips back and forth. Your trend bot has nothing to grip during a handover. The fix is NOT a better signal. It's a skip list. Pull your own logs, split your results by the clock, and find your personal flip-heavy windows. Then gate the bot to simply not trade them. A single "skip this slot" check saves more money than any indicator you'll ever add. Unless your bot is built to feed on volatility, stay out of the handovers. The market doesn't pay you to fight a coin flip.

@Kropanchik @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @poly_data He was cooking up a strategy

This wallet sat untouched since February Four days ago it woke up and has not stopped clicking since Profile: [@Aurora148?via=gorynich" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@Aurora148?via…] Joined in February, first trade in four months came June 20 More than two thousand trades since, 538,188 dollars moved, 21,308 dollars ahead Every single one of those trades is the same five minute Bitcoin question, up or down That is roughly one decision every three minutes, day and night, since the day it woke up Want to watch wallets like this and practice the same five minute calls yourself before risking anything Tyche Terminal: [t.me/Tyche_Polymark…] What do you think happened four days ago

@Crypto_Pranjal @Polymarket You are trading the best markets

Decent win after many days on @Polymarket. 6X ROI. Turned $100 into $683. Tbh, I've been enjoying the 5-minute Up/Down markets lately. They're definitely riskier than most markets, but the ROI can be pretty crazy when you catch a good move. Of course, the market can humble you very quickly too. One thing I try to do: if I take 2-3 losses in a row, I just close everything and take a break. I'll come back in a new session later. Chasing losses has never ended well for me. Btw, not financial advice. Just sharing what's been working for me lately.

@dobioprer @PolymarketSport Who do u think wins

Colombia vs DR Congo – World Cup. Prediction. Colombia scored 3 in their opener… but also conceded. They looked strong going forward, not so perfect at the back. DR Congo just scored against Portugal. Not a weak side – and they created real chances all game. This isn’t a lock for Colombia to keep a clean sheet. If they push again, space will be there. Placed on @Polymarket My prediction: DR Congo to score (Over 0.5)

@0x_Punisher He is really fast

The entire edge of this dev's bot lives in one place. Reading the real number before the market does. And the mistake that kills everyone else is shockingly simple: A huge share of Polymarket resolves on official data. Inflation prints or jobs reports. Rate decisions also. Every one of them comes from an official source that releases on a fixed schedule, down to the exact minute. Most people build their bot to read a news API. That feels fast but it's not. A news feed is a mirror. It's repeating the number a second or two after the origin already published it. And on this strategy, two seconds is the whole game. His bot reads the primary source directly. The agency that actually drops the number, not the echo reporting on it. It also never polls. Polling is asking "is it out yet" over and over, like a human refreshing a page. By the time your poll lands, the fast money already traded. His setup streams. The number gets pushed to it the instant it exists. His wallet: <@shamrockc?via=punisher" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@shamrockc?via…> When a source only shows a slow public page, he digs for the real-time feed running underneath it. That's the unglamorous core of the whole thing. Read the origin. Be early by the two seconds that decide everything. Good luck.

@BimbaCrypto Whales keep printing

🧠ANON WHALE JUST PRINTED $526K ON PORTUGAL - $1M POSITION, 105% GAIN Meet Anon. Only 7 predictions total. Barely active. his massive win: > Spread: Portugal (-2.5) > Bought 1,121,209 shares at 44.6¢ → cost ~$500k. > Resolved at 100¢ → +$525,988 profit (+105%). his profile: polymarket.com/profile/0xe22a… > He turned ~$500k into over $1M in a single match. WHY THIS IS A WHALE MOVE > 7 predictions total. One massive bet on Portugal -2.5. > He bought at 44.6¢ (near‑fair odds) and cashed 100¢. > No 5‑minute chaos. No 1¢ lottery tickets. Just a clean read on Portugal covering the spread. THE STRATEGY > #3 - The Mid‑Range Doubler (30-55¢) > Buys at 44.6¢, holds through the match, cashes 105%. > Pure mid‑range double at whale scale. 7 trades. $1M+ profit. One Portugal spread bet. He's barely active, but when he swings, he prints.

@Kropanchik So much money in a small amount of time

Someone turned eleven minutes into two million dollars and nobody on the timeline noticed Profile: [@BAREFLUX?via=gorynich" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@BAREFLUX?via=…] Eight trades back to back this morning $3.9M in $5,999,071 out One match most people had already closed the tab on Profit $2,086,071 before anyone refreshed their feed Rank 2 on the entire platform today What would you do with eleven minutes and three million dollars

@heychamp_ @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade LP are the best

after winning my 0th combo on @Polymarket i went hard on LP again today +$81.58 in LP rewards before breakfast time to get some sleep💤

@MotivacionesF Things always change

🚨 INSÓLITO EN EL MUNDIAL 🌍🔮 Antes del partido entre Ghana 🇬🇭 e Inglaterra 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, Nana Kwaku Bonsam, uno de los brujos más famosos de Ghana, lanzó una advertencia que dio la vuelta al mundo: 🗣️ “Estoy trabajando en Harry Kane. Ya he demostrado de lo que soy capaz y sé qué debo hacer para detenerlo. No será una lesión grave, pero sí lo suficiente para ayudar a mi país”. Y lo más llamativo fue lo que ocurrió después… 👀 ⚽ Harry Kane pasó prácticamente desapercibido. 📉 Apenas tuvo una ocasión clara de gol. 🚀 Y cuando la tuvo, envió el balón por encima del arco. ¿Casualidad? ¿Coincidencia? ¿O el brujo cumplió su promesa? 😳🔮🇬🇭 El Mundial nunca deja de sorprender 🌎