PolyBackTest

2.1K posts

PolyBackTest

PolyBackTest

@polybacktest

API for backtesting strategies on Polymarket's Up/Down markets. 5-min markets available.

Katılım Ağustos 2025
42 Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
ascetic
ascetic@ascetic0x·
BREAKING: Senior @Polymarket intern @mustafap0ly mentioned we’ll be able to stake $POLY very soon. Biggest airdrop in crypto history loading?
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Boring_Business
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
This news feels overblown because it is actually the standard across most competitive markets According to recent study, percentage of trader who lose money in > Options: 90% > Futures: 95% > Day trading: 80% > Sports books: 90% People underestimate just how win-lose most market structures are, especially if you are taking directional views with binary outcomes Compared to most of these, prediction markets are surprisingly still less concentrated
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ

A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money. on.wsj.com/4td9UPy

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The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ·
A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money. on.wsj.com/4td9UPy
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cristal
cristal@0xCristal·
THE MOST EXPENSIVE THING I EVER DID WAS NOT USING CLAUDE 8 months of polymarket trading 340 trades 71% win rate claude analyzed the full history in 6 minutes "67 instances of correlated entries structured as separate positions. estimated value left uncaptured: $31,400" $31,400 not bad trades not wrong predictions correct predictions structured incorrectly every time i was right about a geopolitical narrative, i entered 3-4 related markets separately instead of as one parlay every time a token launched, i spread across FDV thresholds one by one every time a sports slate aligned, i copied positions individually 67 times $31,400 sitting there i walked past it every single week without knowing it existed parlay bot i've been using since: t.me/poly_parlay_bo… a parlay captures what separate trades leave behind when positions share the same underlying driver, entering them together multiplies the payout instead of fragmenting it across isolated returns $31,400 is what fragmented structure cost me in 8 months just because i was trading markets separately instead of combining them into one parlay hope this will help you too
self.dll@seelffff

x.com/i/article/2049…

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Mustafa
Mustafa@mustafap0ly·
ghost fill issues were finally solved today. you should see an order of magnitude better execution on all your orders. if you've been impacted by these issues for the past couple of weeks, dm me and I will personally onboard you 🙂
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vijn
vijn@vijn_crypto·
I made $37 today in just a couple of minutes with almost no risk And I can show you exactly how - so you can repeat it too Here’s what happened: Right before the US stock market opened (9:00-9:30 AM ET), we saw a local dip in BTC I expected institutions to start buying back, so I was watching the 15-min markets closely BTC started dropping and touched the lower VWAP level Then we got a strong reaction - long wick + buying pressure At that moment, the Up share was trading around 18¢ I entered and took profit at 60¢ The entire trade took less than 2 minutes This kind of quick, high-probability setup happens almost every day during high-liquidity hours I hope this was helpful to someone
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Route 2 FI
Route 2 FI@Route2FI·
Think Pentoshi's BTC analysis is spot on. Will $BTC hit $85k during May? Yes.
Route 2 FI tweet media
🐧@Pentosh1

Let's start with $BTC. Sorry for the delay. Let’s do some simple math around $BTC, saylor and $STRC . Total purchased bitcoin so far for $MSTR is 88,568. Total holdings have reached 818,334 with a goal of hitting at least 1m by eoy. The average is around 730 BTC per da. It’s a rough average and varies slightly.. There are 450 BTC mined per day. So in the same period of purchases 40,500. Strategy is currently on pact to buy 1.6x the supply mined. So one single corporate buyer of BTC has bought more than DOUBLE the btc created in this period. Obviously, at some point something has to give. In the past year I’ve not taken many BTC trades and have been more focused on stocks. Only trading 85k to 92k. 68k to 76k. However. I think once BTC clears the mid 80’s and holds the chances of seeing new highs are quite high. And thus I’ve made new purchases and plan to hold that for the foreseeable future. I’ll do a little weekly update around this. Any increased buying from ETF’s from here will have an outsized impact imo. In terms of probabilities, I think the lows are in and we could see BTC trade as high as $180k between this year and next. The confirmation for that imo is likely holding the mid 80k's short term as the signal for momentum to begin.

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Kate
Kate@_kate_lv·
so i don't think they will make hyperliquid look like pennies, cause its already very huge in our industry i believe polymarket is one of the biggest now too those two will probably be a competitors to each other and we all will see how it goes live, when $poly drops and where users will move and how the token will do after tge that's a thought part too imo really interesting to see what's polymarket got in their heads since they can study the good case from hyperliquid right now also everyone calls out the "big" airdrop for hyperliquid but tbh the huge part was that they did a 10x ish after tge if you hold, your "airdrop" got even bigger - even better marketing move then the airdrop itself have to think about this part too to me polymarket has all the cards in their hands to make it real and even better but for now we all study hyperliquid case
bogdanooo@bogdikery

I’ve been saying this for ages: Hyperliquid’s massive airdrop didn’t just drop tokens - it forged a super-loyal community that will walk through fire to protect HYPE’s name. Look at how hard they’re going after @MatthewModabber over this nothingburger clip 😂 That’s exactly why @polymarket should do the funniest thing possible and drop an even bigger airdrop… so HYPE’s will look like pennies in comparison.

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Caneleo
Caneleo@Caneleo55·
Calling it now 👇🧐 May/June: $POLY details. World Cup 2026: TGE + listings. @Polymarket as a major sponsor during the biggest global prediction event on earth. Billions watching. Every match, every headline, every odds swing. $POLY everywhere. World Cup x Polymarket makes too much sense.
Mustafa@mustafap0ly

@harrysew @Payne_1337 @Polymarket very soon too

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Said
Said@said116dao·
Polymarket airdrop soon? I've been trading since 2024, have a trading volume of 160k, and am in the top 1.5% of LP farmers. Will I receive the maximum allocation?
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Bumblebee
Bumblebee@0xBumblebee·
two hours since @mustafap0ly said that and i’ve already seen 20+ tweets that $POLY is coming in Q2 i know you all want $POLY but don’t forget that before it’ll come live these shall be done: > taker tier rebates > 1-minute markets > Polymarket L2 chain and that’s not all but what i remember to launch perfectly you need to be prepared perfectly are you patient enough?
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Didi
Didi@DidiTrading·
Day 501: $POLY is coming sooner than most people think. This will likely be one of the biggest airdrops ever, and it’s honestly not that hard to become a top wallet. > $3000+ profit → TOP 1.23% > $300K all-time volume → TOP 1.73% > $100 in LP rewards → TOP 0.29% If you haven’t yet, I would focus on reaching $100 in LP rewards. Takes a few days and some skill, but it’s still one of the best R/R plays in crypto right now.
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
Insane stat: 0.1% of the accounts on Polymarket have earned 67% of the profits.
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ZER
ZER@zerqfer·
HERMES AI AGENT HAS $600,000 IN PROFIT ON POLYMARKET ONLY 15-MIN BTC MARKETS profile: @bonereaper?via=zer" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@bonereaper?vi… it doesn't predict direction it hunts the 490ms gap between binance and polymarket binance updates every 10ms polymarket oracle: every 500ms hermes lives inside that window > polls binance tick data every 50ms > detects when YES + NO drops below $1 > executes both sides before pricing corrects > locks profit no matter which way BTC moves 9,341 trades executed 81% win rate biggest single win: $18,400 no prediction. no opinion. just physics. the insane part? most of these trades resolve in under 15 minutes it runs 24/7 and never misses a window is 600k from one bot on one market normal now?
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nairolf
nairolf@0xNairolf·
shoudnt be an unpopular opinion but: both hyperliquid and polymarket will succeed in prediction markets they will simply win different audiences hyperliquid → stocks / crypto markets polymarket → normie / real world markets it is really that easy
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Keşfet

@ascetic0x @Polymarket @mustafap0ly @BoringBiz_ @WSJ @holy_moses7 @shayne_coplan @0xCristal