@MonkehPutler The only shipping impacted by the US blockade is Iranian, everyone keeps telling me no one else is sailing - is that not right?
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@shieldwall
1.3K posts
@shieldwall4 People just don't get the genius of blockading Dubai and Qatari ports
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@Danjsalt Still lower energy prices than those that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now that was a proper price shock. America somehow managed to survive, must have been a miracle…
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Higher energy prices at home baby
These people are so dumb
@XTexasGirlX@XtexasgirlX
🚨 REAL-TIME ENERGY TAKEOVER, BABY! 🔥🛢️ This ain’t the Straits of Hormuz… THIS IS THE GULF OF AMERICA 🌊🇺🇸 Hundreds of supertankers from EVERY corner of the planet are racing to Texas & Louisiana to fill up on the sweetest, cheapest, most American oil on Earth! While the world panics over Hormuz, President Trump just made the USA the #1 energy superpower again! Record exports. Record tankers. Record WINNING. The globalists’ chokehold is BROKEN. America is the new gas station for the planet! 💪 God bless TRUMP. God bless our oil patch. God bless the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!
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@adolph_malan @_HenryBolton Yes, I’m a bit surprised that ships that won’t sail because insurance / fears of the crew because of the Iranian drone threat are apparently all gung ho about taking on the USN and SEAL boarding parties
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@_HenryBolton Perhaps their (China maritimes) insurance costs will make passing the strait impossible, similar to the rest of the world currently?
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I’d be interested to know how President Trump or Pete Hegseth intend to blockade Chinese or Indian tankers. We’ll see.
I’d also be interested to know what the aim of this is? Is it to deny toll revenue to Iran? Is it to enforce freedom of navigation? What is the end state?
Also, after Hegseth said they are prosecuting this conflict without any concern for Rules of Engagement, is it open season - it all appears terribly ad-hoc.
If I’m l generous, perhaps it’s meant to look that way. But it doesn’t feel deliberate - it feels as though the political level is overruling, by-passing or interfering with much of the operational planning process.
Henry Bolton OBE 🇬🇧@_HenryBolton
🚨The US is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and directly or indirectly all Iranian ports. President Trump has said: “No one who pays an illegal toll [to Iran] will have safe passage on the high seas,” adding that the blockade – which will involve so far unspecified other countries – will “begin shortly”. The two questions about this are: 1) How will the US know who has or has not paid Iran a toll? 2) How will this blockade work if Chinese, Russian or Indian ships, for example, are involved, or if it results in disruption to Chinese or Indian energy supplies? Every decision made appears to have failed to consider broader implications beyond those directly impacting the Iranian regime.
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@EpsilonTheory The US government and the International Energy Agency both have the USA as a net oil exporter, a threshold it crossed in 2018 and has maintained since
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The US is a net importer of oil, and expanding exports + blockading the Persian Gulf is hilariously catastrophic for the US consumer.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Trump on the phone with Maria Bartiromo: "We don't get our oil from there. We have so much oil. We have boats pouring up to the United States. They'll be filling 'em up, and they'll be leaving and they'll be packed with the best oil you can get. Light, sweet, crude. We don't need the strait."
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@Kingbingo_ @AndreasSteno Boarded by SEALs is more likely. I’m assuming the crews who are refusing to sail through Iranian drones are not going to be gung ho about a shoot out with US Special Forces
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@AndreasSteno And a French or Chinese ship is going to get fired on by the US navy if they don't agree to be blockaded?
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Trump just flipped the Strait narrative from open it to block it, turning it into an Iran versus the rest of world pressure test while oil flows still hold around 80% of normal.
But the real constraint is structural: Iran cannot push Hormuz too far without hitting China’s red lines, since Beijing is the dominant buyer and can either enforce discipline or accelerate bypass routes like pipelines and overland corridors. That creates leverage, but it is asymmetric. If Iran overuses it, it loses it.
Clever move by Trump, in my opinion!
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@Danjsalt @Rory_Johnston The other thing about “the worst is yet to come” narrative is that it should be showing up in oil future prices. The price on 6 and 12 month contracts is falling after the initial spike. Oil traders may be wrong (often are) but at least for now they aren’t pricing in Armageddon
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@shieldwall4 @Rory_Johnston I'll let you chat with the experts
I don't claim to be one
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It's incredibly dumb when you consider that the oil shock is Iran's greatest ally and Trump is apparently putting it on steroids
Eylon Levy@EylonALevy
This is incredible. The United States is responding to Iran’s partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with a FULL blockade, interdicting ships that bribed Iran to sail through.
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@Danjsalt @Rory_Johnston The world is less dependent on Gulf oil than at any time in our lifetimes, with a greater geographic range of supply than has ever existed. So it is unclear to me how this shock is meant to exceed all those that went before (including, checks 1980s notes) a blockade of Hormuz
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@shieldwall4 That's because the oil shock hasn't fully hit most places yet
As @Rory_Johnston has said it's a wave that's traveling outward and it is now going to bite as seaborne inventories were exhausted
Now you'll shortly see genuine shortages and supply chains breakdown
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@Danjsalt Reminder that Dan believes an oil price shock that barely gets into the Top 10 largest rises of all time will, on this one occasion, end civilisation
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The world economy and people's lives haven't got months to run
Will Chamberlain@willchamberlain
The Emiratis and the Saudis can bypass the Straits of Hormuz to sell their oil The Iranians can’t.
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@Danjsalt Like the one that didn’t materialise on the 8 or so occasions when the oil price rose by a greater amount? Those imaginary famines you must remember…
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Yes you have moved a traffic from an IF logic to an AND one
The end outcome is even less exports and even more pressure on the US as the world starts running out of oil, gas and actually more importantly fertiliser
This goes on much longer and the US will be responsible for a global famine
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That's why tankers are sailing in and out
Oh no they aren't
Guess the US Navy doesn't 🤷
Will Chamberlain@willchamberlain
Iran doesn’t control the Straits of Hormuz. The United States Navy does.
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@Osint613 Exactly this. The narrative that America is the one that needs a quick resolution on Hormuz is wrong. Iran is the one that needs a quick resolution as every month that passes the cost it imposes from a blockade diminishes. In a year or 18 months that cost may be close to zero
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BIGGER PICTURE: HORMUZ
Iran’s main leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 20% of global oil flows passing through it. By flexing control, the regime is playing its strongest card.
But that move comes with MASSIVE consequences.
Since the Hormuz is weaponized, the world will now accelerate its workarounds:
•Saudi Arabia will most definitely expand its East-West pipeline capacity
•Gulf states will begin invest heavily in alternative export routes
•Israel will emerge as a potential corridor for energy transit
These shifts won’t happen overnight, but they are now inevitable.
What this means:
The more Iran leans on Hormuz, the faster global energy flows reroute around it. Over time, that erodes Tehran’s leverage and cuts into its long-term power.
Bottom line, we will see some short-term pressure as the regime plays its strongest hand. Long term, this is a massive strategic failure of historic scale that will come back to bite them very hard.
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@thejbullmarket @SAVISHKUMARKAN1 And in real terms this isn’t even in the Top 5 of all time oil price shocks
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@SAVISHKUMARKAN1 High prices are due to the March shortfall before the rerouting.
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The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
80% (16.25M bpd) of the 20M barrels per day supply of the Strait of Hormuz has already been replaced or been rerouted.
🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute
📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus
🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage
🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute
🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass
🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage
Deficit? Only 3.8M bpd and even just 2 more tankers per day would reduce the deficit to 0.
With 1.3B and 500 millions barrels in combined reserves for China & India respectively, they have a 3-4 month reserves before they run into a deficit.
This is why stocks are back at nearly ATH again. Opening the Strait of Hormuz has now merely turned into an afterthought.
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@BCResource @M46726805 @thejbullmarket ROE was to defend shipping, large scale offensive action against Houthi sites was off the table. It wouldn’t be in this scenario. Also, Houthi missiles are supplied from Iran and Hezbollah sources, capacity limited. More likely is the Houthi Saudi peace negotiation pays off
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@OilPaul @Danjsalt Yes. 2 things needed for tankers to transit - a government insurance back up (say from Saudi or Qatar) and the oil price needs to go higher. In the 80s Tanker War the tankers sailed because the cost benefit justified it. Currently it doesn’t, not with safe alternatives available
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If Iran has no leverage then you'd see tankers pouring through Hormuz
Not so much
Jake Novak@jakejakeny
The reason the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed is because even as the 2 sides were talking, the U.S. Navy sent those destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz without incident. That took Iran's last bit of leverage off the deck.
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@Danjsalt And it is interesting that, despite all that, the increase in the cost of oil isn’t even making the Top 5 all time oil price shocks
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@Danjsalt Given Saudi domestic gasoline prices were a fraction of international prices after the 1973 OPEC intervention, I am guessing other net exporters have figured out ways of dealing with this problem
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Yep
Bang go the midterms
I wonder how this interact with the private credit crisis?
Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕@KingKong9888
The U.S. doesn’t have enough spare oil production capacity. This will push U.S. domestic gas prices A LOT higher.
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