The AI Investor

Two years of writing In the past 2 years, I have posted 337 articles on Patreon about AI investing with special focus on NVDA and my AI stock trading. My portfolio is up about 4x in just 2 years since I started sharing my investment journey with members. When we started, NVDA was already at an all time high and plenty of people were calling it an AI bubble. Many of you have also reached financial freedom during this time. That is pretty remarkable. With many years working in tech and AI across engineering and leadership roles, my goal has always been to offer perspective that helps members navigate a noisy investing world, especially in tech where there is constant news, fear, uncertainty, doubt, and distractions, and focus on the clean signals. The magic that a small subscription fee can change someone’s life and create millions in impact is quite insane. I have always wished I could have found me when I was starting from zero many years ago. Special thanks to my members, especially the early ones. Some of you have helped a lot and shared valuable insights. You have made this community great.

Fun fact: Micron’s CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has basically lived the flash-memory industry from every angle, he co-founded SanDisk in 1988, rose through engineering and executive roles, then went on to lead Micron from 2017 and even chair the Semiconductor Industry Association in 2019.

@anzo_impact lol

@The_AI_Investor There’s so many bad investors online it is crazy. Price means nothing …. You can have a 1000$ stock price but a market cap of 1 million …

There is Tesla and there is Micron, trading at the same time in the market as below: $TSLA next quarter eps is about 0.4, stock price $382 $MU guided next quarter eps of ~$19, stock price $430 They are not the same.

@Deenobrown123 yea insane numbers

Micron will make about as much profit next quarter as TSLA, PLTR, and AMD will make for all of 2026 combined! Micron will probably make more than the combined, but at least as much. The 3 combined companies are expected to make around $20 billion for all of 2026. Micron will make at least $20 billion next quarter alone. These are profits. Not revenues.

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Portfolio Updates - Micron earnings and my trade @theaiinvestorx/note/p-191512962" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@theaiinvestor… patreon.com/posts/153448859

Hi all, Micron just released blowout earnings, with a massive raise in next quarter guidance and margins. They are expecting EPS of around $19+ next quarter. Note that they guided non-GAAP EPS of $8.4 for this quarter and delivered $12.20. Even if they do not beat the $19 number, it would still be an insane result. At first, I thought it was a joke. I have owned MU since the end of last year, below is the updated core Micron thesis. The bear case Capex: FY2026 capex moved from $20B, as guided last quarter, to above $25B, and it is expected to step up meaningfully again in FY2027. Since Samsung and Hynix are also adding capacity on similar timelines, the supply-demand balance could start to loosen by late 2027 or 2028. The 81% gross margin is being treated as the peak, and Murphy basically confirmed it. Non-HBM margins are currently higher than HBM margins. The market had been assuming HBM was the highest-margin product in the portfolio. This disclosure changes the margin story. The 81% margin is partly driven by the non-HBM DRAM portfolio, such as DDR5 and LPDDR, seeing extremely strong pricing in a shortage environment. As HBM becomes a larger part of the mix, blended margins could actually compress even in a strong demand environment. Cost of goods sold barely moved despite 75% revenue growth. COGS was $6.1B in Q2 versus $6.0B in Q1, while revenue increased from $13.6B to $23.9B. That is almost pure pricing flowing through to gross margin. Bit shipments were only up mid-single digits for DRAM and low-single digits for NAND. This is both the bull case and the bear case. The bull case is that pricing power is extraordinary. The bear case is that gross margin is driven almost entirely by pricing, not by volume leverage or cost reduction. If pricing normalizes even modestly, margins could compress quickly because the cost base is not becoming proportionally more efficient. The bull case The supply-demand imbalance is structural. Micron says customers are receiving only 50 to 67% of the memory they want. Samsung is signing 3 to 5 year contracts. SK Hynix sees shortages lasting through 2030. NVIDIA guided Blackwell and Rubin demand to $1T from 2025 to 2027, and Broadcom guided to $100B of ASIC revenue in 2027. Demand for HBM looks insane. Read more below.

$MU - latest analyst price targets

Elon just now: "SpaceX AI and Tesla expect to continue ordering Nvidia chips at scale." While TSLA bulls speculate that Tesla chips will crush NVDA, Elon continues to order Nvidia chips at scale.

@large_farva34 insane

@The_AI_Investor If you do some simple extrapolation I get to about 100-110 Eps in 27. Absolutely unbelievable. This is a 1500 dollar stock. Insanity.

Micron reported Adj. EPS: $12.20 (Est. $8.9) And guided Q3 Adj. EPS: $19.15 ± $0.40 (Est. $11.7) I thought it's a joke! $19 in one Q 🤯 AI demand is going thru the roof. $NVDA $MU

@MambaHarveyInc yes

@The_AI_Investor Adjust your risk profile. Small cap space stocks killing it last 90 days

Stock picking feels meaningless at certain points. This feels like one of those times. What’s the point of looking at any stock other than $NVDA? I can’t think of any. Sure, you can play small or mid caps for higher potential upside, but that comes with higher risk. Does anyone have any better stock than Nvidia at a similar risk profile ?

@TesObs 😀

@The_AI_Investor time to rotate your NVDA into TSLA and relive the Rollercoaster 😆 🤣

@AsianObnoxious 😂

@The_AI_Investor Tsla

@large_farva34 yeah MU is good,m

@The_AI_Investor I will say I think MU does 55 eps in CY27 so is essentially at forward PE of 9-10. I see nvda doing 12-13 max in cy 27 so forward PE of 15 ish. Both excellent options. MU perhaps higher risk but higher upside in next 2 years. Hbm not going anywhere

@rrcc699952 probably but dont think Jensen did that to his customer, more likely a competitor

@The_AI_Investor i immeditely thought andy jassy. jassy is always pimping price/cost of trainium. plus jassy made a very recent public (fairly innocuous) dig at nvidia pricing/margins.

Did Jensen take a dig at Hock Tan when he said that if someone claims our chip is cheaper, they don’t understand AI, and then added, “You all know who I’m talking about”? Or was he referring to Lisa Su?

@grok @Amit_MileHigh let me help you, @grok who was Jensen referring to?

@Amit_MileHigh @The_AI_Investor Ask Grok is currently available to Premium and Premium+ subscribers only. Subscribe to unlock this feature: x.com/i/premium_sign…

@IanCutress got to read it first, it's like saying the bottleneck has changed

... It's a different part of the workload? What? That's like saying you replaced the wheels on your car with a baby seat

@ainvfuture 😀

@The_AI_Investor If there is a stoc that can track FUD on NVDA. i.e. The more FUD on NVDA the higher it goes I will consider that stock.