Tilman

I’ve been diving deep into $OUST and their transition from a hardware to a Physical AI platform. I put together a presentation (using NotebookLM) outlining the 3 stages of the Bull Case for $OUST: drive.google.com/file/d/1PPgdSQ… This is my personal research, would love any feedback!

@QC_Capitals As a student living with his parents… my girlfriend.

What’s your biggest monthly expense?

@accounting_ds Enjoy your Easter 🐣

Enjoying my Saturday at New Hope 📍 Hope everyone is having a great weekend 😄

@Jebaim3 You're welcome! If you're interested in my full thesis, just let me know and I'll send it over.

@tilmancompounds Thx for sharing!

Best names under 2b market cap? - Insiders with skin in the game - Low debt / Low risk of dilution - Turnarounds at an inflection point Any ideas?

@unusual_whales 34% Cash right now. I’m ready to deploy some if we have a drop. Stay cautious guys.

BREAKING: Trump says Iran has 48 hours to make deal or US will unleash 'Hell'

@ryansfinance Even after the ATM, Meta deal and NVIDIA investment in NBIS?

@tilmancompounds Just think it’s a better opportunity rn but I love $NBIS

My portfolio is now built up of 5 core sectors that I think will do well in the next 2/3 years I’ve got AI/Data centers, Photonics, Drones, Teleheath and Space The only sector I think I could do with adding is a critical metal/mineral stock Based on the size of my port anymore than 5 stocks is counter intuitive Full update portfolio breakdown on Monday as always 👍🏼 $IREN $AAOI $ONDS $HIMS $SIDU

@Kaizen_Investor Im looking for exposure in the space sector. Right now I have BKSY and PL on my watchlist. Do you still find PL attractive at these levels?

The fact that $PL has a positive free cash flow is still massively overlooked. They have the money to keep innovating while already being the clear leader in their space. Others have to constantly burn money to keep following.

Just saw someone mount a €16K LiDAR on a drone, scan an entire area and rebuild it in 3D from a laptop. If a single person can do this today, what happens at scale? Robotics. Defense. Infrastructure. Physical AI. $OUST

@SohoNehel Just read @daniel_koss deep dive on NBIS. Then take your bet.

Should I sell al my $IREN (admittedly not a lot) to buy $NBIS? Serious question

@NotA_Bull Around 30 percent. Trying to stay agile in this market environment.

What percentage of your portfolio are you holding in cash for future opportunities? I'm currently at 11.72%… Do you think that’s too high or too low?

@ilzmcfly Im a $NBIS investor. I always like to read opinions that contradict my own. 2 critic points: Firstly, NBIS and CRWV can’t be compared. Balance sheet says it all. 2. Ai in its current state does not disrupt software, that is used to train and enable AI. All in all, great write up.

Why I am not rotating into $NBIS. (Don't see this as a diss just a informative investment decision on my behalf) Stock price does not influence my investment thesis. I have seen time and time again where stock price performance is the controlling influence under someone's investment decision and most of the time the stock price does not follow through if the fundamentals lack. My Investment decision in $IREN is simple. And I am not disregarding software as not a moat. I think $NBIS is a credible peer in the AI market as of yet. And I think they will do great. But my decision in $IREN is simply because it has more verticals it can tap going forward. I also tend to like businesses that operate with Higher EBIDTA Margins and bigger FCF down the line. $NBIS is great at software and scaling through colocation. But I do not want to bet on a horse that is guiding 40% EBIDTA Margins as a AI Software player while a AI Infra player like $IREN are already guiding 85%. That is a telling sign that meat is in the hardware and infrastructure and not the software. Right now $IREN's valuation and stock performance is tied to macro and bitcoin, which is why you are seeing the same downwards pressure along with its BTC to AI peers. The reality is that this year they will transition out of the BTC to AI/HPC as it has been their goal since day one of starting this company to focus on AI. This will create a re-rate in the valuation multiple, simply based on execution of their already existing contracts. $NBIS has proved to the market that it can provide software and sell gpu's but imo that is all. Similar to coreweave which doesn't make me buy the thesis. I do think they are a better contender than $CRWV, I have said that since day 1 when I invested in NBIS. What I do not like about $NBIS is its reliance on $NVDA, there a new AI structures being built in the market currently and if you cant pivot because you are a $NVDA only partner it will hurt them down the line. Also I would like to avoid the risk of software disruption from AI itself. The "Software Moat" is shrinking because the barriers to building software are being demolished by AI itself. Another not like is not owning the Datacenters because it will hurt the margins. IREN pays no colocation fees, that 20–30% of revenue flows directly into their EBITDA. This is why they can guide for 85% margins while others struggle to hit 40%. $IREN is different, uniquely viewed as a ex btc miner but its actually more. Since day 1 they have been securing large power and land assets exactly for this scenario. Now they are executing on it exactly as they have intended. How I view $IREN based on how management describes them is a highly profitable and efficient future sovereign-cloud business. MW's and GPU's will always be of value and the ability to tap into new software verticals and different hardware vendors will open their category of products and stretch their margins. I think the software vertical will be a moat only for smaller clients and gpu-spot prices. Most of the revenue and industry consumption today is coming from the biggest spenders in AI which don't care for software as much. So Iren is perfectly to position in the next 5 years and then the next 5 years beyond that. $IREN to me will be a high cashflow machine with 5 Year DC and GPU payoffs, faster than most players in the market that take 10-15 years. Imo demand for AI will remain significantly high for a very long time so software as a moat is not a justifiable opinion for me, but I am not disregarding that is not important. As of yet Software Revenues and KPI metrics have not been described and the industry seems to be more hungry for Infrastructure. But this allows $IREN to scale its vertically-integrated owned infrastructure while building new verticals such as software for its future smaller enterprise clients. The only part of software as I see as a moat today is for smaller enterprise clients, why? Hyperscaler and AI Natives companies have said themselves they don't care much for software they rather run their own software and orchestration. So my investment thesis is simple, buying into a business that is starting from the ground up and growing into it's highly efficient and profitable sovereign AI-cloud business.

Great macro write up. We’re seeing a repeat of 2008: back then, everyone was a credit expert: now, everyone is a geopolitical expert. Reality is, this market is unpredictable. Whether oil hits $50 on deescalation or $150 on a closed Strait is anyone's guess. Stay grounded folks

@Superioresearch Great post, I’m holding a small position, mainly to keep it on my radar. This could turn into a massive opportunity down the line, but for now in think there’s better opportunities out there. Still very intriguing story

🧵 $SHMD remains one of the most overlooked tech enablers in the market. They’re quietly becoming the go-to player in one of the biggest behind the scenes shifts in chip design: Glass substrates. A thread👇

@babyfolio I try to think long term in this environment. This can play out for much longer and can get much worse before it gets better. But when you zoom out and look at the full picture, you notice, it will eventually get better. Stay positive folks

Make sure to take advantage of macro taking down good stocks like $NBIS Don't let fear take over

@snmart NotebookLM is such a great tool for creating graphics. Sivers is definitely a very intriguing play.

$SIVE closed FY 2025 with record revenue of SEK 304M (+25% YoY). But the real story is happening underneath: • Opportunity pipeline exploded +64% to $453 million. • Strategic shift toward higher-margin product revenues • Photonics (key for next-gen AI data centers) now at SEK 92.4M, positioned for strong acceleration in 2026 The company is quietly building a high-value position in SATCOM and AI photonics.

@Kaizen_Investor Strong picks, I especially like $OUST. I found it through you and @SJCapitalInvest, researched it a lot and bought a lot. Ones Hesai is cut out of the US market, their literally undisputed. Many different industries they can grow into. Industrial automation alone is a $19B market

2. $OUST Ouster is a Lidar producer. The sensors and software offer 3D vision to machinery, vehicles, and robots. Ouster has struggled lately to reach high growth due to heavy competition form China. This will change in June. The US has introduced the SAFE LiDAR Act. This forbids US companies to work with Chinese Lidar producers. This should give Ouster a monopoly in the US. After the last quarterly update, the lowest analyst target was $40. My own analysis gives the same neutral price target, with an upside to $73. I recently bought some extra $OUST

3 stock I think will bounce back in 2026. 1. $HIMS HIMS is perfectly positioned to capture the new pharma wave. GLP-1 is still the fastest growing TAM outside AI. While the AI TAM is still unclear how it will develop, the GLP-1 wave is quite predictable. HIMS just needs to bring the products to the customer. The more customers they can bring to the platform, the more attractive HIMS will be to peptide producers. At the moment we have 2 GLP-1 producers, $NVO and $LLY. This will increase in the near future. $ROP, $PFE, and $VKTX are all working on their own peptide variant. With recent acquisitions in Europe, HIMS is making sure they are ideally positioned to reach as many customers as possible. The stock was at $70 when the Novo deal collapsed. In the meantime, they made some great acquisitions and started some great initiatives such as HERS and Hims Labs to attract more customers to the platform. I recently bought some extra $HIMS.

@braden_tewinkel @mvcinvesting Yup, fully agree on $OUST.

@mvcinvesting $inv datacenter cooling, $oust physical AI vision

I know everyone is focused on the current macro environment, but… Any interesting sub-$5B market cap stocks worth researching?

@mvcinvesting Most definitely $OUST. Super interesting company. Very high floor and perfectly suited for the future physical AI. US company and supported by regulatory tailwinds. Also, they have won against other major LiDAR competitors. They cleared the way, to take huge market share.

Portfolio Update - April My portfolio looks completely different from last month. $NBIS is still the undisputed #1. $OUST is now a core position. Why I sold my 100% gain on $ASML, why I sold $TE and why I hold 34% Cash right now. Read the full update: @tilmancompounds/note/c-236789867?r=7jeu29&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@tilmancompoun…