
tricky_dick
6.7K posts

tricky_dick
@tricky_dick
DARPA grand challenge team leader 2007,2009 autonomous vehicle. Univ Penn MS MEAM, MBA. BSME Univ Arizona. A&P Mechanic License. amateur violin maker.


Watch as @gregweik flawlessly defeats Hell's Gate with his CyberBeast. And on stock Pirelli tires 🛞





BREAKING: France sold its gold stored in New York and purchased an equivalent amount in Europe. All of France’s gold reserves are now located in Paris.


Grok is actually better than I thought...wtf









Major General Mohsen Rezaei states what would be required to end the war. Among the conditions he names are two key demands: A 100% guarantee for the future, and the withdrawal of America from the Persian Gulf. From where Trump is right now. The second demand will likely not be doable, but these things are always part of a negotiation. I think that if we are smart, we should at least give them 80% of what they demand.





What just happened to Iran's Kharg Island? President Trump just said the US has carried out the "most powerful bombing raids in Middle East history" on Kharg island. This is a MAJOR escalation for oil markets. Here's why: Kharg Island has been described as the "crown jewel" of Iran's oil industry. It is a vital, tiny island in the northern Persian Gulf that manages ~90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Kharg Island alone handles ~2% of global oil supply. In the lead up to the war, Iran was exporting as much as 3 MILLION barrels of oil per day from Kharg Island. Trump said that the US military has "chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island" for now. However, President Trump also said he will reconsider this decision should Iran "do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz," which Iran is clearly doing right now. In other words, President Trump appears to be paving the path for the destruction of oil infrastructure on one of the world's most crucial oil ports and islands. It's no coincidence this came just 2 hours after markets closed for the weekend. Buckle up for a busy weekend ahead.










JUST IN: Hours ago I wrote that Kharg Island was the red line the coalition drew for itself. The one target whose destruction would do more to end this war than every other strike combined, left untouched because reaching it would create consequences the coalition cannot manage. Axios just reported that US officials are actively discussing seizing it. The report, citing administration officials directly, says discussion is underway to capture Kharg Island alongside special forces raids to secure Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles. No order has been given. No deployment has been authorized. It remains in the discussion phase. But the fact that the option is being reported through Axios sourcing from inside the administration means the policy debate has moved from contingency planning to active consideration. Kharg Island handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports. Approximately two million barrels per day at pre-war capacity. The revenue funds roughly 40 percent of the Iranian government’s budget including the IRGC payroll that sustains thirty one provincial commands. Seizing it would collapse the regime’s revenue overnight. That is why the option is being discussed. It is also why it has not been executed. In 1979 the Carter administration developed contingency plans for seizing Kharg. The plans were rejected as too difficult and too risky. In 2026 the military calculus has shifted: 80 percent of Iranian air defenses are destroyed according to the IDF, the Iranian navy has been severely degraded, and the US has near total air superiority. The operational feasibility has improved dramatically since 1979. The economic calculus has not. Seizing Kharg removes Iranian crude from global markets for years, not weeks, because rebuilding offshore loading infrastructure under wartime conditions requires complete reconstruction. It spikes Brent toward $150 or beyond. It triggers the recession America is trying to avoid. It gives China an escalation rationale Beijing currently lacks. And it requires holding a small island under continuous drone and missile attack with supply lines across a strait Iran has demonstrated it can threaten. The Axios report also references special forces operations to seize Iran’s highly enriched uranium. That pairing tells you what the administration is actually debating: whether the endgame of this war is limited degradation, the current trajectory, or complete strategic decapitation, meaning the simultaneous elimination of Iran’s revenue base and nuclear capability. Trump has demanded unconditional surrender. Iran refuses to negotiate. The air campaign, however brilliant, has not produced capitulation. Every day without political resolution increases pressure to escalate toward options previously rejected as too costly. Kharg Island is the measure of how far the United States is willing to go. The discussion is the signal. The seizure, if it comes, is the moment this war transforms from a regional conflict into a global economic crisis that touches every economy on earth. The red line I identified is no longer theoretical. Washington is discussing whether to cross it. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…





🇴🇲 IRGC Spokesperson denies Iran attacked Oman: "Oman's security and national sovereignty are respected by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran." He called the Salalah port incident "very suspicious" and said Iran is investigating. x.com/i/status/20318…










