will.js

in hindsight it was pretty obvious

kinda de-escalatory if your base case is us/israel are in full agreement about everything x.com/tradfi/status/…

they are pre-signaling attacks again

Some thoughts from a completely unqualified mind: - US & Israel both confirmed they don't think a regime change is likely - Iranian ambassador to the UN has said they don't plan to block or mine the Strait (h/t @Crypto_Noddy) - Bessent & Trump both say they don't think the mining has happened, as in - even if it did, nobody's accusing anybody of it, and nobody will be held accountable if there's a path of least resistance. Something to consider - when the US & Israel struck nuclear sites last year, bombed apartment buildings and took out nuke scientists/engineers - Iran postured for revenge but in reality, pre-signaled their attacks to save face and ultimately, de-escalated. Maybe this has changed with a new, younger Ayatollah - but they are not operating from a position of strength or stamina - Moreso, what creates the largest market reaction. What if the market stops reacting? Oil moves, equity moves are blunted just a week into this. To me, this 'excursion' feels like it's a singular tweet/truth away from completely unwinding to the upside -- I'm not convinced Iran wants to carry this out to the death of their recently elected leader, and I think Trump welcomes a somewhat cordial exit he can sell to his base. Until that happens it's anybody's guess - but Trump is under a lot of pressure to quickly exit, he's already narrowed the scope of the operation and has complete authority to say "ok, we've achieved what we wanted to, it's a good time to buy stocks and short oil, let's focus on midterms with now 9 wars ended"

$NET now 40% up in nearly a straight line, big spike on news today and it's getting a bit extended from moving avgs - going to close out calls and just hang onto shares LT. thread done x.com/tradfi/status/…

$NET out weeklies in full sold half the remaining swing at HOD here excellent trade heading into this uncertain weekend

As a Cloudflare user, I'll look to get long before their summit on Thursday now that it's -18% in 2 days on "ANTHROPIC SAYS: ...." $NET #lotto

@0x8483 @Crypto_Noddy I don’t think it is up to Israel

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy There doesn’t need to be that kind of escalation for the war to become an end in itself in the form of a prolonged low intensity conflict. Iran and Israel can also choose not to let him out that easily.

@0x8483 @Crypto_Noddy it's true but in my mind the only escalation left is 1) ground invasion or 2) bombing heavily populated civilian centers call me an optimist, but I think these are both deeply unpopular moves and they know it

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy Or

Not having a clear target means victory can be claimed at any time without his mouth breather base seeing it as a humiliation Israel sees this as existential - I don't think trump/the US sees it the same way. debilitating their nuclear infra "for a long time" + the "destruction" of their military, navy, whatever else he's claiming daily - is an acceptable outcome barring a regime change (that's probably not happening)

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy They have no clear target of what they want to achieve, it’s all vague and contradictory, apparently not fully aligned with Israel, and the goalposts keep moving.

@based16z it's kinda funny, tech companies doing broad layoffs have the perfect excuse to deflect from ai fears -- "we over-hired during covid"

OpenAI and anthropic are worth about 50% of meta each with 1/20 the employees. So maybe meta needs to cut 90% of ppl.

@Sparkle_Shark @Crypto_Noddy same as it ever was

@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy Smells like cope

Happy to unveil our first major update since launch: TradFi Terminal v2.1 We added new tools for research, journaling, AI, charting, automation, deep customization across the terminal, plus dozens of QoL and performance improvements. More info below ⬇️

@giangosfit news was 7:30pm est, post-market trading ends at 8:00pm est

@willoptions Market was closed by the time it was posted. How did you trade this? Using hyperliquid?

This has been tweeted to death this weekend but I have a position- $HIMS turned out to be an unexpected banger to end an already incredible week and I'm holding onto it. - Market priced in expensive, drawn-out litigation + risk of the entire GLP-1 segment getting shut down - 40% of the float is held short, at Friday's close that is near $1.5B notional, of which only 4% was unwound (assuming every transaction after the news timestamp was short covering - it wasn't) - News was released just 30 minutes prior to the end of the post-market session going into the weekend. It was past 1am in Europe. Very few traders participated - There's not many other attractive longs out there besides oil My base case is upside capitulation as 6 months of comfortable shorts unwind into a narrative that has completely shifted. Lots of retail buzz around a squeeze. This trade was made possible with @pvpterminal, and @tradfi posted the news 13 minutes before any other notable news accounts.

@TremendousNukes @tradfi hop on @pvpterminal

@tradfi Of course they announce this shit on the weekend man fmcl

*NOVO AND HIMS PLAN TO ANNOUNCE PARTNERSHIP AS SOON AS MONDAY *NOVO TO SELL ITS WEIGHT-LOSS DRUGS ON HIMS PLATFORM $NVO $HIMS

@giangosfit $NET was a good one, I mostly trade news

@willoptions Any signal these days bro?

obviously no signal here, but just to put this move into perspective - embedded leverage is a motherfucker

@jackschwager looking forward to it

I have just approved the audio recording of Stock Market Wizards for production. I think the new narrator did an excellent job. SMW is the only MW book without a currently available audio format. It now goes through ACX quality check, which they say takes about 10 business days. It will then be available on Audible, Amazon, and iTunes.