I don’t really get the fear that someone would “artificially” prop up the odds of a candidate on a prediction market. There are a lot of sharp market participants that would love to take the other side of an inflated price. Like how would this even work in practice? Someone will post a ton of liquidity at an inflated price for millions of dollars and you think people wouldn’t rush to take the other side? I could maybe see someone market buying an illiquid book to distort the price for like a minute but it seems pretty far fetched that this would influence an outcome.

@PredMTrader I think at the tails it would be smart spend for an unlikely candidate It probably would only cost 50k to pump your odds from sub 1% to 5% which could bring a bit of attention to you Also if you actually win you get a big payout for your incoming administration.