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CriticalGuides
900 posts
CriticalGuides
@CritGuides
I will give you advice for free.
Inscrit le Şubat 2023
158 Abonnements375 Abonnés
@ggreenwald Glenn don't forget that Venezuela was because of drugs
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Notice that there's nothing in US war demands about regime change, freedom and democracy for Iranians, or even loosening up repression of protesters or anyone else.
That's becasue the US doesn't give a shit about any of that. They're just pretexts to sell US wars as noble.
Kellie Meyer@KellieMeyerNews
NEW I’m told these are the US red lines for Iran: A U.S. official tells me: - End all uranium enrichment - Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities - Retrieve highly enriched uranium - Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes regional allies - End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis - Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage
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I am sorry Matio but this is word salad.
Iran wants a nuclear weapon to be taken seriously on the world stage and hold its sovereignty. The US doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon over fears that it would use it against the US. Iran's propaganda videos clearly show the US as evil with depictions of baal. This also gives credence to an Ideological attack if they get the nuke.
The pain point is Oil. The US has become the world's largest exporter of oil since the strait has closed. If we are considering that iran makes money from selling oil and the US stops all shipments coming out this will be more of a pain point for Iran.
I don't see an easy way out of this.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Here is the deal that ends this war, if anyone is willing to make it:
The U.S. needs to concede something real to Iran, the war caused enormous damage and Iran will not sign anything that looks like unconditional surrender
Iran needs to give Trump something that looks like a win, it does not need to be strategically significant, it just needs to be optically powerful enough for him to stand at a podium and declare victory
This is how most wars actually end, not with one side defeating the other, but with both sides agreeing on a story they can each tell their own people
Iran gets acknowledgment that it survived and extracted concessions, Trump gets a headline and a legacy moment
The gap between those two things is smaller than it looks, the only question is whether the people in the room are willing to bridge it
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election That makes him the wrong person to be leading Iran negotiations A politician with his eye on the White House has two incentives in that room: (1) end the war and (2) make sure the deal doesn't hurt him politically What these talks need is a negotiator with exactly one job: end the war, whatever it takes, however it looks
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IRAN ON FAILED TALKS WITH THE US IN PAKISTAN:
"The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest, attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic."
Markets will react to the news in 10 hours.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election
That makes him the wrong person to be leading Iran negotiations
A politician with his eye on the White House has two incentives in that room: (1) end the war and (2) make sure the deal doesn't hurt him politically
What these talks need is a negotiator with exactly one job: end the war, whatever it takes, however it looks
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's last line on Truth Social isn't getting enough attention "At an appropriate moment, our military will finish up the little that is left of Iran." - The blockade and the war are not mutually exclusive - Trump left the door to resuming strikes wide open - This was the closing sentence of his post, not a throwaway line Trump is making it very clear that strikes are still on the table, and if we’ve learned one thing this year, it’s to take Trump’s threats seriously
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@SenWarren But your kids. They will need to work to pay your benefits. And your kids kids (if they have any) will also pay for your benefits. We will enslave your entire living lineage just because you couldn't save for retirement on your own.
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I won’t stop fighting to protect Social Security, so you don’t have to work until you die.
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@ArmsControlWonk You're gaming out that the Chinese will send military escorts to a war zone....
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So, let’s game this out. A Chinese flagged tanker pays the toll and transits the strait. We interdict it? What if the tanker is escorted by a Chinese warship?
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@zerohedge The realization that you are an oil salesman and you cannot sell oil...
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@johnarnold @mehdirhasan Yes, because what is the alternative?
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So what happens when a Chinese ship is trying to exit the Strait? The US is going to block it? The Chinese will allow that to happen?
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@WallStreetMav When you zoom out and see the moves the US is making it seems its only to push the Chinese.
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President Trump is not just blockading Iran's oil exports ... he is blocking China's imports.
This was not specifically stated in his announcement, but the real goal in blocking all Iranian oil is to force China to engage with Iran on a resolution.
China was Iran's primary lifeline for the past few years. Only China can apply the needed pressure to get Iranian leaders to give up their enriched uranium.
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Cenk, Iran makes money by selling oil. If Iran can't sell the oil they won't make money. The only thing they can do in their war time economy is print money. If they do this too much it causes hyper inflation which will make the Iranian people poorer. The world can do without Iran's oil but can iran do without the world. This is a game of chicken as soon as the Iranian people call for an end of this regime their government will have to capitulate or be overthrown. This happened 4 years ago with Masha Amini, where the Iranian people now have more freedom then before.
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Trump is retaliating against Iran by double closing the Strait of Hormuz. So, now Iran's oil can't get out either. Ok, but what will that do to oil prices? Make them much higher!! And that will hurt our economy very badly. So, ironically, that only INCREASES Iran's leverage.
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@MarioNawfal Like I said before the most entertaining outcome will be that US makes sure every ship pays a toll not just to Iran.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump has just ordered the U.S. Navy to find and stop any ship that has paid Iran a toll to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, “effective immediately" the U.S. will blockade ships trying to enter or leave the strait.
Source: AP
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump: Iran refused to agree not to develop nukes He called this 'the single most important issue'. "In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people."
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Viktor Orban of Hungary has a 28% chance of winning the Hungarian election, despite JD Vance visiting, per Polymarket.
See more: polymarket.com/event/next-pri…
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Trump says 'ready to use the full economic might of the US' to strengthen Hungary's economy.
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Talks have failed.
Vance announces the U.S. delegation is leaving Islamabad with no deal.
No second day of talks.
"The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement.
The Iranians chose not to accept our terms."
Vance says Iran must make an "affirmative commitment" that it won't seek a nuclear weapon or the tools to build one.
Tehran apparently wouldn't go that far.
over 9 hours of historic face-to-face talks.
The first direct engagement since 1979.
And it ended with one side walking out.
Source: NYT
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: VP Vance: “The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement... The Iranians chose not to accept our terms ” @WhiteHouse
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@WatcherGuru Doesn't really make sense if Iran wants crypto for their fee.
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JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $72,000 after Vice President JD Vance says the US failed to reach a deal with Iran during negotiations in Pakistan.
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@Holden_Culotta It is already unpopular to support Isreal. All America has to do is stop.
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Tim Dillon: “Israel is just blowing up apartment complexes in Lebanon.”
“Massacring women and children.”
“The blowback that Israel will get from this—and the US will get for funding it—will be insane.”
“You are creating terrorists all over the world.”
“It’s going to radicalize them.”
“Israel bombing Beirut 100 times in … 10 minutes.”
“In a densely populated urban area.”
“I’m starting to get this nagging feeling that Israel doesn’t really want this ceasefire.”
“Israel claims in all of these buildings, there are terrorists doing terrorist things.”
“Their argument is like, if we kill everyone, inevitably some of the people will be terrorists.”
“I’ve never seen the brutality of this type of warfare.”
“You can’t just indiscriminately kill civilians and not expect that people are going to be radicalized.”
@TimJDillon
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CriticalGuides retweeté
“Benner’s cycle” usually refers to a market/economic cycle theory created by Samuel Benner in the 1870s. It claims that business and market conditions repeat in recurring phases, especially:
Panic years
Good times
Hard times
It is commonly described as using repeating intervals such as 18, 20, and 16 years to anticipate major market turns.
"Wikipedia"
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