Ismail Moazami
1.8K posts
@IsmailMoazami
Building onchain. Fully locked in.
Working on a terminal CLI for trading the 5min BTC markets on @Polymarket these days. Building it first for myself, fast, simple, with real edge. If it actually becomes useful for trading these volatile markets manually, I’ll open source it here. Still early, but getting there.
A computer science student built a working simulator that lets you test your own Polymarket strategies using real historical data and released it on GitHub for free… This is a ready to use tool based on the largest dataset of 1.1 billion Polymarket trades. Here is how you can use it for your trading: This simulator takes all past markets, analyzes how they behaved from open to close and applies your own strategy to them. As a result, it calculates the potential Pnl and accuracy as if u had actually made those trades yourself. Lets imagine, while trading, you have noticed a pattern: All movie markets are less volatile and often have a clear winner right from the start (with the highest % probability) - just an example! But how could u actually test this pattern right now without risking real money? - thats exactly where backtesting comes in… So, you take your strategy, lets say - Always buy the most probable outcome at market open, but only in movie markets. Then, the simulator analyzes all movie markets that have ever existed up to today, applies your strategy to them and shows you the accuracy. Based on that, u can decide whether its actually worth using for your future trades. This way you can test hundreds of strategies like that without risking any money. GitHub: github.com/evan-kolberg/p…
Is AI killing jobs? New data shows that, more than three years after the release of ChatGPT, there is no evidence for a significant impact of AI on overall employment in the UK. In our new report, we break down the labour force into different occupations and use four measures of AI exposure to determine how likely they are to be affected by the technology. Surprisingly, occupations with higher exposure to AI have grown faster than least-exposed ones, not slower. This holds across all four measures, and across two different data sources. The wage picture is different. Pay in AI-exposed occupations has lagged the rest of the labour market since 2019. But that gap opened three years before ChatGPT, which makes AI an unlikely candidate for the observed wage compression. This flattening of the wage structure is visible across the within-occupation distribution and strongest at the top quartile, which is consistent with labour market dynamics that predate generative AI.
Working on a terminal CLI for trading the 5min BTC markets on @Polymarket these days. Building it first for myself, fast, simple, with real edge. If it actually becomes useful for trading these volatile markets manually, I’ll open source it here. Still early, but getting there.
The jump from working with a chatbot to having an agent that actually helps automate a process requires a real amount of work. Most companies will need to have dedicated people that are responsible for bringing automation to their teams, instead of leaving this up to every individual employee. Partly because the work is more technical than we imagine today, and partly because it’s just hard to do this as a side project. The job spec is to map out new workflows with agents, implement new systems to deploy agents, make sure the agent has all the right (up to date) context to work with, wiring up internal systems to connect to the agents, creating evals for the agents, figuring out where the human is in the loop, managing the system when there are new upgrades, helping with the change management of the existing business process, and so on. These jobs may come from IT or engineering, or live directly in the business function itself. They’ll be called different things depending on the company, and in some sense it’s the future of software engineering that you’ll see a huge growth of in non-tech companies. Most companies will have to be hiring for this now or in the future, and it’s another example of the kind of new jobs that will be created in AI.
This pushed me to try @agentcashdev and build something. I made an agent for Polymarket research that can decide when free/public data is not enough, then use x402 via AgentCash to pay for better data when it actually matters. ngl this really feels like the future repo below
