Slylust

3.7K posts

Slylust

Slylust

@OptionsSly

Derivatives Trader, Free Mkt Enthusiast **Not Investment Advice** No paid anything! If you wish to show appreciation, donate to charity linked below.

Inscrit le Mart 2022
0 Abonnements829 Abonnés
Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@tylermacro10 Possible you’re misunderstanding deflationists?
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
U.S. WORKERS MORE STRUGGLING THAN THRIVING For the first time since Gallup began tracking, 49% of U.S. workers report struggling in life, while only 46% say they’re thriving. This reverses 2022–2023 trends, when a majority were thriving, highlighting a steady post-pandemic decline in workforce well-being.
*Walter Bloomberg tweet media
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Alicia Gerardo
Alicia Gerardo@TheEconRebel·
If the federal minimum wage had tracked the inflation-adjusted growth in average worker productivity since 1968, it would be roughly $27 today.
Alicia Gerardo tweet media
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@ptuomov Am I just being dumb or is this just saying IF you truly have an edge one should trade it more frequently, hence creating more instances of “edge”…you make more money than just one directional and hold strategies Like duh…no?
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Ptuomov
Ptuomov@ptuomov·
PRE-TAX ALPHA IS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR TAX-AWARE LONG-SHORT STRATEGIES! A new paper by the AQR crew. The finding is that for tax-aware strategies to really work, you need both the freedom to short and the ability to generate pre-tax alpha. In more detail, the paper concludes that: - Pre-tax alpha is not just compatible with tax-efficient investing. It is a key driver of tax benefits and investor wealth in long-short strategies. The whole thing is a blaah in the long-run without pre-tax alpha. - Shorting and leverage are pretty much necessary to unlock the benefits. For traditional direct indexing, increasing alpha has only a modest net effect on total tax benefits because the various positive and negative mechanisms largely offset each other. The interaction between alpha, leverage and shorting, and time horizon leads to faster asset growth, greater tax-loss harvesting opportunities, and substantially higher long-run after-tax wealth.
Ptuomov tweet media
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
I assume everyone’s heard about the boy who cried wolf?
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
👀 back months ~10$ down move back months only moving down ~4 a year out Welcome to new regime!
Slylust tweet media
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
We're starting to get close to 1:1 rise on front to back month just fyi
Slylust tweet media
Slylust@OptionsSly

Right now speculation on future need to refill. If they do unload then - its real need to refill+speculative bid Its just one variable ofc, like peace will drop the bid across the curve (even if its temporary) & would be a bigger variable Or OPEC being slow to realize output for w.e reason would increase bid etc My point is powers that be intent is to lower just the front months + keep back months same or lower! Result Oil is ~1.60 lower now, back months up ~1.30 x.com/OptionsSly/sta…

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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@JamieAsks Yes, not saying its not useful information but not actionable for 95%+ population. Also realize the number of assumptions made like- this is the ONLY position in a MM book hence has to "hedge" it 1:1 etc
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CA$H
CA$H@JamieAsks·
@OptionsSly so follow the flow of money and not a pin?
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CA$H
CA$H@JamieAsks·
The "6475" Strike and my thoughts of the market going forward is below just remember we are all just along for the ride 🎢 also I can’t claim original authorship of these ideas solely, they are a collection of wisdom shared by people on X and elsewhere so thank you all ✌️🙏
CA$H tweet media
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES
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Jeremy Schwartz
Jeremy Schwartz@JeremyDSchwartz·
It’s not all bad news on inflation front. Housing is getting more affordable
Jon Brooks@jonbrooks

Rents are getting cut across the country. Austin: -22% Fort Myers: -19% Phoenix, Denver, Raleigh… all down double digits. Even areas of Jacksonville are down 20%+ already. But here’s what people miss: This isn’t just a rent story. This is a supply story finally showing up in price. Everyone chased the same trade: → Build multifamily → Flood the Sun Belt → Assume infinite demand Now supply hit… (and demand crumbled) and pricing broke. And it doesn’t stop at rents. Lower rents → lower investor demand Lower investor demand → lower home prices That feedback loop is just getting started. If you still think housing is “undersupplied everywhere”… you’re looking in the wrong markets.

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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@litewhisperer P.S I’m genuinely trying to engage, the questions are intended to help you understand my PoV, just defining things to avoid misunderstanding
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?whispers?
?whispers?@litewhisperer·
@OptionsSly That undercuts the claim that the chart illustrates “bad policy of sovereign money coming in to support systems need for liquidity.” Perhaps I am missing something but nothing you've said relates to the essay.
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?whispers?
?whispers?@litewhisperer·
An Inflated Opinion... "The state’s role is not to prevent private debt from ever accumulating, but to ensure that when the inevitable deleveraging occurs, there is enough sovereign money to sustain aggregate demand and the payment system." Link below...
?whispers? tweet media
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
Essay? I’m confused? What in your opinion is the chart showing? Is the chart showcasing good policy(pushing humanity forward while causing least amount of pain - how I define good policy you may define it differently) Is there anything in chart that can showcase different types of sovereign money being added?
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
Maybe we should preface this convo by saying I’m in the first principles, taxes don’t fund govt, double entry bookkeeping etc camp There is nuance to how sovereign money is created into the system not all of it is equal or “good” policy (should define good too!) The chart is the problem w/US (imo) all created due to bad policy of sovereign money coming in to support systems need for liquidity Extremely hard to fix everyday problems like housing affordability etc without it
Slylust tweet media
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?whispers?
?whispers?@litewhisperer·
@OptionsSly The empirical record shows pvt debt build-ups themselves are the real hazard, and that the state’s choice isn't between “bailout” and “clean markets,” but between using sovereign money to sustain demand (thus the payment system) or letting a credit collapse cause a depression.
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@dampedspring Agree with your general statement but you are mixing themes to fit a narrative though 😅 x.com/optionssly/sta…
Slylust@OptionsSly

Recent debate on @x about CPI/Inflation/📉Labor/📈GDP May i provide nuance/context? 🧵 Total inflation is all about "claims" relative to income CPI is just a consumer price stat. It doesn't account for erosion of domestic income relative to fixed cost (taxes, debt, etc) (1/n)

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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
The big theme for me has shifted from central bank and treasury duration manipulation from 2008-2025 to the insane amount of promised investment and spending made by private sector, sovereigns, deficits and how that will all be financed by private sector savers Over the past month additional issuance to fund war and eventually fund rebuilding of war either requires rationalization of prior promises or another 1/2 $TN onto the promise pile. All this while savers "consumption" is once again being taxed by energy and food prices leaving less money for investment. Risk premiums are too low to encourage financial leveraging up. Seems assets need an overall repricing lower to clear the market. The trick is that the promises need an ROI and higher costs of capital can bite.
GIF
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@JamieAsks My unsolicited advice- avoid RE, you pay a 10% vig every time you buy and sell (attorney, realtor, etc) From what I’ve seen you seem to understand basics of first principles, so go trade in a market w/least amount of friction+decent leverage Simpler than you think
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CA$H
CA$H@JamieAsks·
@OptionsSly the housing market has been something, my grandparents main income was real estate and renting but things were different then I just need to keep working hard and I know I will make it someday, have a great weekend and take care ✌️
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
Officially ($$ in bank) liquidated property that I never thought we would sell….EVER…not at 2.1% rate So for anyone asking what my current outlook is for years 26-27 Does this answer the question! With regards to timing- We consider real estate (even in NYC) especially above a threshold to be illiquid + we probably left money on table zillow.com/homedetails/13…
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@JamieAsks It might be a bit! we did make a tidy profit + was rented out past 2 yrs. All reasons it made sense but was stunned at price appreciation in just a few years Seemed silly to wait months to try and time pico top, seasonal changes etc it really is an illiquid asset
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CA$H
CA$H@JamieAsks·
@OptionsSly look out below 😬 and congratulations 🎉
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
@ModeledBehavior Monopolist already implied it, mkt isbjust reacting to it….will it happen?
Slylust tweet media
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PAA Research
PAA Research@ActAccordingly·
For now, this is keeping equity markets from really breaking down. Estimates continue to track higher. While crude/energy prices show up in the cost of many things direct and indirectly, the average American consumes 35-40 gallons of fuel a month. All in energy costs (transportation, heating/cooling) might be $400/household/month. Is this a tax on the consumer? Yes. Will the lower half of the K-shaped economy get hit disproportionately. Yes. However, for now this spike in the energy complex is manageable. For now.
Lance Roberts@LanceRoberts

While every one is panicking about the current conflict and oil prices, analysts continue to ratchet earnings estimates higher into year-end. That increase in the "E" is dropping forward valuations rather quickly.

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@tylermacro10 @DeItaone @TheEconRebel @litewhisperer @ptuomov @JamieAsks @JeremyDSchwartz @elonmusk