Slylust

Mkts expectations are bottoms "here", my own expectations are not yet but soon (i prefer to buy undervalue not at par) Express this strategically 2 different ways QQQ - $281 cost, CVar* $200, max profit ~$1.9k, RoR ~550% SPX - $1.8K cost, CVar* - $3k, max profit ~$21k, RoR 1000% *Conditional value of risk (CVar) aka worst 5% of all losses

@SantiagoAuFund The value that govt creates and/or allows him to have said wealth is lost on him

correct.

@talmonsmith @robin_j_brooks Define “will fall quickly”

via @robin_j_brooks (nobody's dove or MMTer) on yield moves: "the underlying driver in all this is the length of Strait of Hormuz closure. If by some miracle we see a peace deal and oil tanker traffic through the Strait normalizes, short-and long-term yields will fall quickly..."

@firstadopter You are high on your own supply

Holy crap. This interview. Too much logic and common sense. Jeff Bezos talking too much sense about housing supply/demand policy to fix high rents, zero taxes for poor. Bezos for President! Competence Party!

@Jemsinger Nuance 😉

Vance just said manufacturing has come back under Trump admin. That just isn't true. At all. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

Friend…I get it you believe a hard money world is best instead of our current floating fx world No problem, I support you go convince the world!! Don’t understand hate/dislike towards MMTers (especially hard money ones who get first principles) They are just pointing out how the current system works You are arguing what’s the best system, that’s a different convo 😅

I understand that it is very difficult for anti social illiterate and generally off putting libertarians cosplaying as scientists to understand the value of context, logic, and institutions, but nothing about what I said suggested we should expect or assume investors are going to take losses.

This is an example of economic orthodoxy disciplining political alternatives through the false pretenses of failed incoherent macroeconomics and thus pressuring governments towards their unnecessary demise. Posts like these assume that falling bond prices and high yields will result in a default. In reality a central bank could just manage the yield curve by buying bonds. Or eventually governments will realize the practice of issuing bonds to match “deficit spending” is an unnecessary ruse in the first place.

Soooo IF govt “provides” services, removing the profit incentive from “services sector” (-hospitality cause duh) & focus solely on “quality” What would happen to “inflation” or claims on income? I know I know…govt is inefficient! Relative to what? Pvt sector? Are you sure?… Empirical evidence is…. 🤣🤣🤣

Note how most of the red lines are services with large embedded labor costs and generally low productivity. Baumol's cost disease

@ManningSla19960 @conorsen There must be a reason why liquidity didn’t soak up this “risk free opportunity” Maybe because it isn’t…..risk free 🤯 What do I know, I eat crayons!

@OptionsSly @conorsen Fees: $0 if you are a maker Opportunity Cost: $0 because Kalshi gives 3.25% interest on top of the value of your position Counterparty risk: 0, at least as long as current administration is in office, then it becomes something to think about

They’re doing it again, giving away a dollar for 50 cents:

@tylermacro10 Wide sweeping generalization that lacks nuance and any substance Great answer if you were a politician 🙃

@OptionsSly Ai is the stock market and the sock market is the economy

Truly crazy macro policy being run in this country Luckily the AI bubble is one for the ages (seriously)

Minimum wage is bad policy because it leads to more negative outcomes One day “left” wing will realize that “right” wing was correct on eliminating unions and minimum wage….maybe….just for different reasons 🙃

@sigmahamster2 Both of you are misunderstanding each other because both of you are talking about different topics x.com/optionssly/sta…

Yes they have. If you’re getting this upset while having done no research, then there’s probably some self reflection required. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is widely used in politics and is easily the most cited inflation index. I think this is likely because it often has the highest estimation of price increases, which makes for interesting headlines. The CPI is weighted with an emphasis on housing, as is the PCE. Generally, it is advised that Americans only use up to 30% of their income on housing expenses. Furthermore, Americans typically spend around 30% on housing costs; funnily enough, this data was derived from the BLS, yet they continue to weigh housing at over 40%. For example, if you included hot dogs in the CPI, of course, at a low weight, and hot dogs happened to skyrocket up 5000% in price due to the hotdog flu, we wouldn’t say that consumers are paying 5000% more for hot dogs. They are probably not paying for the hot dog at all and have substituted it for a more affordable sausage or burger patty. The CPI would track this as consumers paying an exorbitant amount for food when they have simply substituted it out; hence, the CPI overestimates inflation, which is used to measure changes in the cost of living. More issues include changes in quality, urban surveying system, and updates in the basket of goods.

Define everything else? BTC is no longer that far out on risk curve (since financialization) want more volatility for your returns? It’s in semi/AI Slowdown and selloff to me are different 👀 on fiscal (accelerating now, relative) 👀 on future oil curve not just on front month (supply shock) 👀 on bank credit - it’s been stalling ~month from war unknown? - If expands how much & what’s return on mkts for same $$ deployed (in late stage lower per $ RoC) Exo money, endo credit, supply shock(like always) Remember credit is a drag on future profit, said another way IF credit sees U.E rising that’s future saying no one will have income to buy your future output, which has cascading effects Why an oblivious monopolist cuts rate into rising U.E hoping they can reduce cost to do business (int rate), savings which will (in theory) then go to workers….which when will we learn 😅

@OptionsSly @BankUnlimited Bro you generally speak in vocabulary I understand but this went over my head, sorry Are you saying mkts might be weak but relative to everything else it will be better? Could you break down what anyone should keep an eye on in terms of mkt for the future?

First of many discounts being provided by uneducated market participants. They quickly forget BTC made a new high with rates at 5.25%… Higher rates = higher issuance of net financial assets for risk assets to absorb.

Ideological we are very similar! His fear is how easily ambition can blur morality when success becomes the only thing that matters One’s political ideology is irrelevant to me willing to work w/anyone Crazy how a republican president on TV “US can’t run out of its own money” Or Crazy how a socialist YIMBY mayor is proposing targeted LVT

Our disagreements come from where we see world going+how to “stop it” People like me are not meant to be peace time leaders…others are A war is happening most don’t see imo To anwer Q Does MLK of today exist w/o Malcom X? Is world more accepting of mutants like professor x because of magneto?

y'all are getting psyoped, we should actually pay congress way more

@FarrellM22 @BankUnlimited Sequence of events matter Currently the risk is slowdown (not “crash”) which would be lower mkts sure…but Lower relative to what is the Q All anyone is trading/investing in is risk Risk that an asset moves relative to itself, relative to other assets, relative to time

@BankUnlimited @OptionsSly Wait so then why long $BTC now?

@tonyannett If that’s the goal, tax capital not wealth 🤯

Good analogy.

Land Value Tax - tax value of land not what one builds on it Eliminate unnecessary taxes (most others), which eliminates net compliance cost across every sector (+frees up labor and capital) Owners can have complete privacy, tax bill goes to land lot number -> no payment -> repossession and sold to pay tax bill (small govt) Prevents instances of tax avoidance

this guy's cooking actually. unemotional economic analysis about franchise and corporate parent joint incentives delivered in a hilarious emotional fashion

@paulg Unless you’ve capital meaning you’re already rich…how does one nominally benefit much at all?? Lawmakers make <200k and need to rents/mortgages (home state + DC)

What? It's not sufficient to park their money in an index fund or a blind trust? Lawmakers need to be active traders to take care of their families?