Postcards From Protest

Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change. bbc.com/future/article…

@Patriot1422 @SonnyServs21 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS 2/ And the core point remains. This war was a unilateral act by Israel and the USA. It has nothing to do with NATO. NATO allies weren't even consulted on, or told of the planned strikes. Trump should not be conflating the two.

@PostFromProtest @SonnyServs21 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS I know plenty fuckface. NATO European countries have not paid their fair share, at all, relative to US.

.@POTUS on opening the Strait of Hormuz: "It's a simple military maneuver, it's relatively safe, but you need a lot of help in the sense that you need ships, you need volume. NATO could help us but they so far haven't had the courage to do so... it would be nice if the countries, including China, if the countries that use it... would get involved."

@Patriot1422 @SonnyServs21 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS Can't debate without resorting to insult then? Address the points in my reply. And yes, successive presidents have complained about some NATO allies not meeting the agreed % of GDP on their defence spending.

@Cabral__2 @Patriot1422 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS A two thirds supramajority is needed in Congress to leave NATO. Not going to happen.

@Patriot1422 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS 24 hours and when it's all said and done we leave NATO anyways.

@Patriot1422 @SonnyServs21 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS 2/ And here is another reason why the US doesn't want to p+ss off allies. Around 25% of the USA's national debt is underwritten by foreign nations. Now you might understand why bond market shifts always rein Trump back in.

@SonnyServs21 @RapidResponse47 @PressSec @POTUS Oh so you want to keep financing the defense of a bunch of spineless fairweather friends… you must have an extra chromosome 21

@RapidResponse47 @POTUS And again he shows he has no idea what he is talking about. A 20 mile stretch of water can't be completely defended from missiles and low flying drones that take less than 2 minutes to reach their targets, fired from mountain ranges that provide perfect cover.

@MotowarriorX 2/ And it doesn't matter that 75% of the population are anti-regime. The other 25% are more than enough to keep it going. How do you think people like Putin and Xi Jinping stay in power forever? A government doesn't need many people to oppress an entire nation.

What part don’t you understand? There will be no ground war. This is not Afganastan. The population means nothing. The majority of the population wants the regime destroyed.

@MotowarriorX You are the one claiming the US were going to take an Island overlook by the mountains of Iran. That is why this whole conversation started. No-one has said the US are intending to invade Iran. Everyone knows that is not on the agenda.

@ratboy101203 @hamezhill @GarethDavies007 @faisalislam @trussliz That's a bit rich given the 14 year record of the last government. Labour inherited an economic mess with zero leeway I think you mean.

@hamezhill @GarethDavies007 @faisalislam @trussliz Labour policy has led to us being an outlier on borrowing costs, this is undeniable Other policy mistakes is massively increasing borrowing too, they now have zero leeway, so yes, it is their fault

BLIMEY. After disappointing borrowing numbers and the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt yesterday 10 year gilt yields reached highest levels since 2008 this morning above 4.9%… and possibly heading for 5%. This is rather delicate. The market judges the UK to be energy inflation prone, and somewhat political uncertainty prone too. UK political economy is sending messages right now… eg will the state always step in, in every circumstance now to stop energy bills rising for everyone, even in a generalised energy shock? See the Cornwall Energy projection of a possible £300 annual increase in energy cap typical bills. The IEA is about to advise the world on potential demand management solutions to help (of the sort Germany effected in 2022, which were deemed politically impossible in the UK). Across UK politics can there be reasoned conversations about these things? If the Gulf crisis continues all this will come to ahead in May, when the new energy price cap is set, in the middle of the aftermath of the May local elections, at a time when whispers emerge from leadership rivals of a looser relationship with fiscal prudence. As it happens, my sense is that the Treasury is firmly planning for a far more targeted offering for any support, IF needed, using data that was not available in 2022. The internal view is that many billions of pounds of Liz Truss’ universal £42 billion energy price guarantee scheme were wasted on rich households and on heating the air outside our badly insulated homes too. On top of that the market reaction to the Bank of England’s change of direction was somewhat overdone, as the Governor’s interview by me confirmed, as he told the MPC at the meeting, raising interest rates in the UK is not going to unblock the Strait of Hormuz… that said, some city economists are now saying we could get a rate rise next month, and markets imply three this year. Let’s see. These things could all change with one Truth Social post. There is some time here. We are less than a third of the way through the observation window on energy bills. Whatever the increase on bills summer is responsible for eg 7% of domestic gas consumption… so the immediate impact over summer would be around £10 a month. But there is an issue brewing at the crossover of political and geoeconomic uncertainty for the Autumn, and May is a key staging post. I can see why they keep saying they want a deescalation, both in the Gulf, and in gilts.

@GarethDavies007 @faisalislam @trussliz No, because Liz Truss inflicted that damage by her own budget policies. The current spikes are caused by something outside of the UK's control. Understand the difference.

@faisalislam So people including you Faisal owe @trussliz an apology, do you not Perhaps you should grill Bunter Bailey who framed her about this when you next see him

@Mktrhythms @faisalislam While that is true, there willl be gradual tinkering to mitigate.

UK yields pushing toward 5% reflects repricing of risk around borrowing energy and fiscal pressure market is demanding higher compensation which tightens financial conditions boe rhetoric cannot offset supply dynamics if this persists it feeds into mortgages credit costs and overall demand

@faisalislam Everyone knows what the problem is. Pegging all of the UK's energy supply to the wholesale cost of gas! Why can't that be changed?

@brianlivesey21 @MotowarriorX Trump is now talking about winding down the attacks on Iran anyway. Thousands of US and allied service personnel died fighting in Afghanistan. Iran has more than 4x the population and mountains 3x bigger in area. The losses would be significant.

@MotowarriorX Did fine? The Taliban is still there running that shit and we aren't. Trump fucked up attacking Iran. And we don't have a Sec War dumbass.

Why are you taking about mountains?? No one is invading Iran. That said the U.S. military fought many years in the mountains in Afghanistan and we did just fine. Trump will not make the same mistakes as past presidents have. SecWar and General Cain believe the same thing again there will be no boots on the ground in Iran in force.

@aNHsnowbird @ace_afire @Osint613 2/ As for the UK, they don't have an armed paramilitary force shooting British civilians dead. They observe due process, and deport people in a legal way. People in glass houses comes to mind.

@PostFromProtest @ace_afire @Osint613 Still waiting for your answer 🤷‍♀️….. Maybe you should take care of your own illegal immigration problem in the UK

NEW: U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to lower the profile of his mass deportation effort, and has directed his top advisers to adopt a new approach on one of his central campaign promises, WSJ reported on Thursday night. In conversations with top advisers and his wife Melania, Trump has become convinced that some of his administration’s deportation policies have gone too far, and voters don’t like the term “mass deportation.” The president has told them he wants to see more attention on arresting “bad guys” and less chaos in American cities. At this time, there is no official word from the Trump administration on the Wall Street Journal report.

@aNHsnowbird @ace_afire @Osint613 And this is a perfect example of the infantile level of debate found on X. There are literally countless examples of ICE agents having arrested people randomly, with thousands of lawsuits pending. But don't take my word for it. Judges have already spoken. reuters.com/legal/governme…

@Microinteracti1 Winding down could simply be stopping the bombing of Iraq, while bolstering the defences of allies in the region. The USA varies the number of troops it has stationed accross its bases according to perceived need at any given time.

Trump says the US is winding down. Iran says otherwise. Foreign Minister Araghchi has been direct: “We are not seeking a ceasefire because we do not want this scenario to be repeated again after some time.”  Iran will continue fighting until future attacks are prevented, Araghchi said. The country had endured a difficult year but had resisted what he described as attempts to force Tehran into unconditional surrender.  Meanwhile the gap between Trump’s words and reality is hard to miss. Trump said the US is considering “winding down” military efforts. But officials told CNN that thousands more US Marines and sailors are heading to the region as the war enters its fourth week.  And the Strait of Hormuz remains the core issue. Countries are now negotiating safe passage directly with Iran, underscoring a new de facto reality: regardless of military results, Tehran is calling the shots on who gets to use the world’s most important energy waterway.  Trump does not get to declare this over unilaterally. Iran controls the northern shore of the strait, and they know it.

@bambibristol Indeed.

Might want to ask for that plane back mate…

@FrankC164 @Acyn Reflection lol.

@Acyn 100% approval… from who? His reflection?

Trump on troop deployments: I seem to have great support. CNN came out with a poll today that I'm at 100%. They said they have never seen a poll like that. The CNN poll said I'm at 100%.

@Acyn Another day closer to Trump's equivalent of Russian State TV. A lie so obvious and the President has no shame in telling it.

@MotowarriorX Read what I wrote again. From those mountains, that island can be easily attacked, again and again. What part of that do you not understand? Any marines on that island will be sitting ducks. Oh and remind us how Afghanistan turned out again.