Telemachus

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Telemachus

Telemachus

@TelemachusModel

Living the dream

Inscrit le Ocak 2021
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
I've gotten a bunch of questions recently on whether or not I'd be posting CBB plays this year. Figured it easiest to answer publicly. My current plan is to not post plays publicly any longer. The reasoning for that follows below... 1/x
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
Can confirm. BUSR.ag will steal your money if you win.
Elihu D Feustel@d_feustel

BUSR.ag is a stiff book. A player shared a story where he won 100k with parlays. BUSR has a "license to steal" rule where if they think you're sharp (whether you are or not) they can seize your winnings. Buyer beware.

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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
Things that also take 1 minute to google: - 1 to 5 year olds received SS benefits if their parents are disabled or deceased. - Clerical errors and computer systems issues are real and likely explain meaningful portions of the other two categories. - DOGE repeatedly makes false claims or claims they later retract. One example: nytimes.com/2025/02/25/ups… More importantly: literally no one is against fraud or government waste. What is DOGE trying to accomplish by embellishing and lying about things?
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Gino BetOpenly
Gino BetOpenly@Gino_BetOpenly·
“My argument is they’d point out the fraud?” Are you saying they aren’t?? This took a 1 minute Google: “24.5k people over 115 years old claimed $59M in benefits,” DOGE wrote. “28k people between 1 and 5 years old claimed $254M in benefits. 9.7k people with birth dates over 15 years in the future claimed $69M in benefits.”
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Matt
Matt@mm_____7634·
Where did that guy giantsbadgers go
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@robpizzola recently mentioned pros were struggling to win at cbb this year. Let's take a look at market efficiency for Totals. Here's the avg absolute mean error for both the opener (top) and close (bottom) by year. If my numbers are right*, the market opener this year is *significantly* more accurate than the close from all recent years. 👀 * These numbers exclude some games where I don't generate predictions * Someone double-check my numbers, please.
Telemachus tweet media
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@MikeR_RAS Completely agree that the last few years should've been beneficial for those who do mostly subjective stuff.
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MikeRAS
MikeRAS@MikeR_RAS·
4. With NIL and free transfer policies there has never been more change to teams rosters year to year. This should make it harder imo to create the right line especially early. I of course like it as a bettor with an emphasis on subjective analysis. But it still should increase the variance on outcomes.
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@JonFendler Certainly depends on what % edge you think you have and if your projections are biased in any way, but I'd say 1000 minimum and likely more than that.
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MB@omamawembanyama·
i personally would never tweet something this informative and actionable, but since it's already out, look
Telemachus@TelemachusModel

@robpizzola recently mentioned pros were struggling to win at cbb this year. Let's take a look at market efficiency for Totals. Here's the avg absolute mean error for both the opener (top) and close (bottom) by year. If my numbers are right*, the market opener this year is *significantly* more accurate than the close from all recent years. 👀 * These numbers exclude some games where I don't generate predictions * Someone double-check my numbers, please.

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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@WazBettorIQ @robpizzola There's enough games each season that outliers shouldn't be doing too much work. AAME isn't perfect but I doubt it's misleading here. Feel free to suggest a better method though.
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Waz
Waz@WazBettor·
@TelemachusModel @robpizzola I'm not certain that "average" absolute mean error is the best indicator here. Have you tried looking at specific thresholds or the nature of the distribution instead? Outliers could be driving some of it.
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@JonFendler Sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions there, fwiw.
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
1. The market did a great job of getting the scoring environment right this year. The overall avg mean error is closer to 0 than most other years. 2. There have been a lot of shocks to the system in recent years (2019: 3 pt line change, 2020/21: covid, 2022: portal + charge rule change part1, 2023: portal + charge rule change part 2, 2019-2023: drastic increase in overall off efficiency). This year was relatively quiet as far as shocks go. 3. Noise.
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@calvinridley73 @rgarcia57 @Ias0801 @robpizzola 1. Agree 2. Maybe? 3. Disagree. The close this year still improved dramatically over the open. And, I think most books use the close from previous games as input to future openers. 4. Strong agree.
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CR@calvinridley73·
@rgarcia57 @TelemachusModel @Ias0801 @robpizzola Most obvious to me is a mix of: 1) books investing more in sharper openers 2) more pros hitting soft books before the sharper books open 3) more pros caring less about pre-tip (so the idea that as day goes on, limits increase, lines get sharper, isn't as strong) 4) lil noise
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
This assumes that there's no other player in the space willing to bet into the places they have biases. Over the past 2 years, if they (or anyone else) moved the market in a way we disagreed with, we happily bet into it. Together we should've made the market more efficient. I have to image the opposite is true too. Now there are fewer people willing to bet into the places where I have biases. Just playing devil's advocate here, FWIW. I'm not saying you're definitely wrong.
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SharpClarke 🔪
SharpClarke 🔪@SharpClarkeNFL·
@TelemachusModel Essentially every model/participant brings bias into the market and the more concentrated that bias is the less efficient the market is in general
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CR@calvinridley73·
@TelemachusModel curious, what book are you using as the opener here?
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
Give me your quibbles! There's a reason why I say "theoretically". One explanation for increased efficiency this year could be that they were spending a bunch of money making the market less efficient (either intentional or unintentional). Given what I know about their performance in previous years and their betting pattern, I don't think that is the case but I could be wrong.
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Telemachus
Telemachus@TelemachusModel·
@Ias0801 @robpizzola It's a simple median of openers from select books. Some of the increased efficiency could be explained by the market being more established before certain books open a number. But that's not enough to explain why this year's open is more efficient than last year's close.
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