Chuck Finley

**CBB Possession Length Analysis (Part 2)** Based on very good suggestion, grouping by the trailing/leading team. This explains some of the patterns even better: - Can easily see the trailing teams speeding up under 5m and accelerating to the end of the game. (1/3)

This is not a steal. It’s borderline assault.

I don't know what to say about how shocked Claude is that my hypothesis in this case was *actually* correct

Siena just got an @EvanMiya Kill Shot on Duke! Maybe next year Duke!

@JonFendler @CorbieBO Resonates very well. They are trying to be polite and conversational asking about my bracket this year. I usually just give up and say yes because I don't have time to explain why Calcuttas and other general futures and futures derivatives are much more interesting.

It's almost as if the committee does more analysis (some good and some bad) than going through on your website in order and handing out the seeds.

@padadiso His comment might be fair for the traditional CBB betting channels but completely agree with the alternative liquidity possibilities in the modern landscape

nah PMs will have god-tier flow, live model implosions happen every year, more sgp options, smaller markets get ridiculous limits, account longevity event, etc. My favorite 4 day stretch of the year.

When @SethDavisHoops is talking about the Wisconsin Badgers with respect, you know they are doing something right

Just finished assuring myself there was no way my @Kalshi problems this morning were on their end—must be my janky code. I stand corrected... Do they make these kinds of changes a lot?

@Cobo_35 @EvanMiya The argument wasn’t about exact comps. It’s about low probability events occurring given enough trials. If something has a non-zero probability (~0.04%), calling it “never again” simply doesn't make sense.

@professor042 @EvanMiya Then why did you only give 2 examples that were nowhere near the level of Miami Ohio?

If Miami wins tonight and finishes the regular season undefeated, they will have accomplished something we will never see a team like them do again. The probability they would get to 31-0 was just 0.037%, or 1 in 3740, using game probabilities at EvanMiya.com.

@Cobo_35 @EvanMiya If it will “never happen again,” why qualify it as a historical outlier if it does? If it were simply called a historical outlier, I wouldn’t have said anything. It’s just a rare case where a mediocre team lined up an extremely soft schedule and ran hot. 0.04% is far from never.

@professor042 @EvanMiya “A team like them” A team as average as Miami ohio will never go undefeated again, they are a historical outlier if it happens

@pointsux Always interesting to follow accounts taking victory laps over three fully correlated plays immediately after they all (collectively) hit...

Still never will understand how ppl need help deciphering what accounts are worth tailing, ignoring, fading etc 200-1 drake Missouri valley future, not just riding, or hedging, but doubling down, & have ppl laying dimes still on +720 dogs 🐶 2 more wins to repeat as champions!

It seems like you’re actually serious… so this is purely a distribution play rather than an edge on the team? I make -5000 equivalent to about -21.4, so I guess I don't hate that number. But for pleebs like me without infinite working capital, I expect to have more lucrative ways to deploy it during the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.

@CorbieBO Fair enough, you did have some additional call outs there. I did take the under though. The conference effects in these tournaments are very interesting. I think I'm 0-3 in MVC so far so you're probably on the right side

@professor042 The tweet where I talked ab 3 spots where I thought unders made logical sense but overall didn’t think unders blindly would last? Interesting takeaway there Chuck. GL!

From Arch Madness Overs to backing America's team (Miami OH), lock in for a unique College Hoops Slate 2 wagers worth poking: 👇 @Kalshi

@CorbieBO Dang, already had the under 152.5 based on your previous tweet on MVC Unders. Best of luck. Maybe we can get a push/win at 152.

Drake vs Belmont Keeping it short as this starts in 30, I don't care about your Missouri Valley under historic I care about who is playing who and my number says OVER ➡️ Over 152 -110

@FezzikSports @BradPowers7 Hey man, great analysis here. Can you tweet out your Round 1 one-seed ML bets again this year so I can make sure to tail them (and does the price matter or should I just take them no matter what)? And just to confirm—Purdue’s a lock even if they end up on the 3 line?

OH DEAR These guys are so wrong here. They completely disagree with THEIR OWN GUY @BradPowers7 who YEAR after YEAR shows THE DATA that there is value going the other way in College betting.These guys simply don't get it. Shocker: NOT ONE PIECE of DATA is provided showing their conclusions. By example, "EVERYONE" sharp (but not these guys) knows a winning strategy Re: RAS is 1) 40 seconds after RAS releases 2) Fade the Steam from the lemmings betting it too late...... NOTE it's not the strong syndicates betting OVER 137 when RAS released OV 135, lol 3) FADE IT, and grab the rogue number in a volatile market (example market is 137.25, two books go to 138, bet UNDER 138). Meanwhile, guys in the twitter universe are teasing CBB totals, betting every dog in the Big Dance on the MLINE, there are so many terrible bettting suggestions....... Shame on these guys who target guys they don't like, and are always trying to @@@@ on them. LOL, poor @BradPowers7 does the work FOR THEM, and they ignore their own guy.

Anthropic's CEO Explains His Refusal to Back Down to the Pentagon. Amodei explained his deep concerns over "autonomous drone swarms" and mass surveillance. He pointed out a crucial reality: our military's constitutional protections rely entirely on human soldiers having the ability to disobey an illegal order. AI weapons don't have that fail-safe. He also warned that AI could completely bypass the Fourth Amendment. Right now, the government can't possibly process every single conversation recorded in public spaces. But with AI's ability to instantly transcribe and connect millions of data points, it could easily map out political opposition in seconds.

Sorry man, but this doesn’t pass the red-face test for me. Not just the unusual analyst background at DK, but the screenshot doesn't back up your narrative of a consistent buildup on 261 bets. A massive portion of the all-time profit appears to come from the last 11 bets—all winners. Incredible streak, sure, but that level of bet sizing isn’t remotely sustainable, even for a high-edge bettor. Also, if someone is truly hitting 68% across the entire NFL/NBA spread board (I’m assuming ATS, since the others were 52–58%, though the screenshot shows some outrights). Why wouldn’t they be round-robinning into sharp books with high liquidity instead of using PMs? There are at least more efficient ways to capitalize, but I guess we at some point it doesn't matter

Guy worked sports analyst at DraftKings two years. Salary $82,000/year. His model predicted NBA spreads with 68% accuracy. Rest of team of 9 analysts 52-58%. January. Head of Sports Analytics called him: Your model creates problems. Him: What problems? Head: When one analyst more accurate than entire team looks suspicious for compliance. Week later mutual separation. Colleagues found his wallet on Reddit month later. gatorr. $905,116 profit. 261 predictions. Since November 2025. Auto copy → ratio.you/r/KXE3MWSH DraftKings fired him for 68% accuracy. He trades with 51% accuracy and makes $905,116 in 3 months. The wallet: Only NFL and NBA spreads. 261 bets. Biggest win: put in $128,708, walked away with $270,464. The difference: DraftKings pays for accuracy. More accurate better for brand. Polymarket pays for win size. 51% accuracy enough if average win $19,800 and average loss $13,900. His model was too accurate for DraftKings and not accurate enough for most traders. But perfectly accurate for making money. Head of Analytics messaged after 2 months: Can we discuss coming back? He sent screenshot: $905,116 per quarter. DraftKings offered $82K per year. He makes $300K per month. Didn't reply. Wallet still active. DraftKings still hiring.

your timeline convinced you AI is in a bubble. talk to a boomer above the age 35 for 5 minutes. most people don’t even know what claude is.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ kind of wild when you zoom out.