Julien
2.1K posts

Julien retweeté

NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra is using NPO (near-package optics). Optical engine content per GPU about doubles from 2.25 to 4.0.
NPO keeps independent optical companies at the center of the value chain instead of letting chip companies internalize it. This is likely why $AAOI and $LITE were green mid day on Friday while the rest of semis sold off (someone knew something).
Who benefits:
$LITE $COHR $AAOI - build the optical engines
$CRDO - retimers and DSP
$SIVE - laser source for CPO and NPO
$XFAB $GFS $TSEM - SiPh foundries
Who it hurts:
$AVGO - built a vertically integrated CPO platform. NPO winning in the short term means that optical lock-in is worth less. They still sell the switch chip, but the optical margin they would have captured by co-packaging goes to independent module makers instead.
$MRVL - acquired Celestial AI for CPO. NPO delays revenue.
Jukan@jukan05
It’s said that the number of NPOs used in Rubin Ultra has nearly doubled. via @FundaAI I can immediately guess who the beneficiaries will be. 👀
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Julien retweeté

$NBIS June 9th Nebius is hosting in San Francisco an event called “Nebius Inflection” at the same time @mvcinvesting The Godfather of Nebius is in USA mmm… is something of magnitude coming up next week? Stay tuned! 🤐😄
Credit: @robcapSE

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Julien retweeté

$NBIS : Tangerine Tan Capital on Nebius as most UNDERVALUED Ai Stock 🔥🔥
“I see Nebius as heavily undervalued because the market still hasn't priced in the company's quality. The backlog and the rapid growth will probably result in the company generating at least $21B in revenue in FY2028. This means that the forward multiple is extremely attractive because the market is focusing too much on short-term risks and not enough on the potential.
An FY2028 P/S ratio of ~3x is far too low, especially since I assume the $21B revenue target is still too conservative. I expect revenue to be around $30B.”
seekingalpha.com/news/4601170-s…
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Julien retweeté

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has surpassed a 5% stake in $SIVE
Holding a position equivalent to 16M shares
According to a filing submitted on 02/06/2026, to the Swedish financial authority
The most notable aspect is that the bank built this position on the exact same day $SIVE announced its partnership with $GFS in the silicon photonics space
A move that triggered a massive 50% to 70% rally in the stock
The position combines common stock with cash settled derivatives
Reflecting sophisticated institutional positioning by one of Wall Street's top banks in a Swedish small-cap
Basically, we previously saw how the Swedish retail market failed to understand $SIVE
Selling while the Americans bought
Now, we are seeing American retail sell while institutions buy
Bottom line: on the day of the $GFS announcement, we didn't rally because of retail
We rallied because the big whales stepped in
If that surge had been driven by retail, we wouldn't be down 30% right now after three major catalysts
It’s only a matter of time before more big whales join to $SIVE
Don't hand over your shares to them at ridiculous prices
Hold or buy, don't follow the herd
On top of that, this is incredibly bullish for another reason
Institutional buying at such an early stage acts as a checkpoint to $SIVE
They basically establish a solid liquidity floor that is nearly impossible for retail investors
Especially short selling bears, to break through
This provides a massive vote of confidence for $SIVE
Proving that the thesis has a future and isn't built on assumptions and empty promises, as many bears would like to believe
I anticipate a recovery for $SIVE starting this Monday
Provided the macro environment stabilizes and doesn't worsen

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Julien retweeté

🚨 CONFIRMED via Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA): JPMorgan Chase & Co. just crossed the 5% ownership threshold in $SIVE.
Official filing:
→ Holder: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
→ Transaction date: June 2, 2026 (same day as the GlobalFoundries announcement)
→ Reason for flagging: "Köp" (BUY)
→ Pre-transaction position: 0 shares
→ Post-transaction position: 16,098,583 shares / 5.25008% of total voting rights
Position structure:
→ J.P. Morgan Securities plc (UK entity): 15,916,852 voting rights — 5.19%
→ J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (US entity): 181,731 voting rights — 0.06%
→ Direct shares: 10,049,558 (3.14% of total shares)
→ Cash-settled instruments (likely swaps): 6,049,025 share equivalents
Why this is structurally significant:
Swedish law requires mandatory disclosure when crossing the 5% ownership threshold. JPMorgan went from ZERO to 5.25% on June 2. The flagging reason filed with the FSA was explicitly "Köp" (Buy) — not custody, not market-making inventory. This is a deliberate institutional position.
The timing is what makes it remarkable:
June 2 was the same day GlobalFoundries announced the silicon photonics reference design partnership and $SIVE moved +50-70%.
Three possible reads:
JPM was positioned beforehand and captured the move
JPM built the position aggressively into and after the news.
JPM is positioning ahead of the Nasdaq NY listing in an underwriter / placement agent role
All three are bullish. The third would be the most strategically significant — tier-1 US investment banks don't take 5% positions in Swedish micro-caps without strategic context.
Connecting back to the "zero institutional ownership" post earlier this week:
Five days ago: $SIVE had zero US institutional 13F filings.
Today: the world's largest investment bank discloses a 5%+ position triggered by a "Buy" transaction.
The institutional layer that was missing has started forming.
The composition tells you it's sophisticated:
6 million of the 16 million share-equivalents are in cash-settled derivatives. The rest is direct shares. This is the kind of structured position you set up when you're a major capital markets player preparing for a multi-event sequence — index inclusions, dual listing, sector rotation.
JPMorgan doesn't take 5% positions in $2-3B Swedish micro-caps because they're bored.
$SIVE just got its first major Wall Street institutional anchor.
$SIVE
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Julien retweeté

$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above.
Generally a fan of:
- $SIVE (CPO lasers)
- $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo)
- Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA)
- Shunsin (Packaging/Test)
- Win Semi (foundry)
- $TSEM (foundry)
- $SOI (silicon photonics)
- Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module)
And a few others.
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@EndicottInvests Panic sold 2 stocks to buy $NBIS. Now I own 3 stocks including 40% $NBIS 🤪
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@HyperAICapital Doubled my $NBIS position to 40+% port. I wond regret it next year!
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Julien retweeté
Julien retweeté

$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.
Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?
There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…
Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.
I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T.
So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing…
Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028.
Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?
Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…
Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.

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Julien retweeté

$TRT just dropped another order.
Today. June 4, 2026.
$2.6M in new burn-in board orders for a next-gen AI GPU platform.
North American and European customers.
Same platform as every previous order.
Let me show you what the order book looks like now.
Mar 4, 2026 → $2.5M automotive IDM order
Mar 17, 2026 → $5.3M AI GPU qualification order
Q3 FY26 → $2.5M AI GPU follow-on
Jun 4, 2026 → $2.6M AI GPU order. Today.
Total confirmed orders since March: $12.9M.
In under 90 days.
Notice something?
Every single AI GPU order references North American and European customers.
Not Asian. Not unnamed geography.
North American and European.
Every time.
$AMD is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
North American.
This is not a one-off order.
This is a cadence.
The $5.3M qualification order in March was the door.
Every order since has been the same customer opening it wider.
The 104,000 sq ft Penang facility came online June 1.
Three days later, another order lands.
The timing is not a coincidence.

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Julien retweeté
Julien retweeté

Still very early with $AAOI: +11.5% today.
2027 is when we'll start to see things rocket for them:
-> They've got more demand than they can handle rn.
-> Capacity ramp is happening now for 800G/1.6T units:
- Q1 2026: 100k monthly capacity
- End 2026: 650k+
- End 2027: 930k+
-> Order book inflecting w/ named commitments:
$324M+ of hyperscale orders YTD ($200M+ in 1.6T, $124M in 800G).
-> Mid-2027 target of ~$471M transceiver revenue PER MONTH.
-> Implies the current ~$16.5B MC is ~2.5x fwd sales - cheap if the ramp delivers w/ CPO laser supply as free optionality on the architecture shift.
All of this ofc depends on management execution and capacity ramp going to plan to meet that excess demand.
Just takes some time for revenue to be reported since qualificaition cycles can take several months.

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