Say No To Trading

I don't know when it will be, but I believe we will look back at the tariff crash as we did the Covid crash - something rapid, severe, and short-lived. It may even be a quicker recovery than Covid, as there were rolling bottoms for many sectors during that time. Here, *almost everything is crashing at once. Both safe havens and speculative. *There are a few holdouts right now, like P&C insurance. But for most part, everything is crashing. Even munis are having their worst day in 31 years, so we took out the GFC record on that.

@amitisinvesting Too late, you ruined it. You’ll know it’s time to buy when I’m the one drinking Fiji - see above.

@SayNoToTrading We need to tell them to bring us tap water. Unfiltered. Keep this bull market going.

It's officially time to sell. On Friday's Basis Points podcast, @amitisinvesting busted out Fiji, which is even more bougie than the blue bottle.

@amitisinvesting Dude it’s your podcast, so your fault!

@SayNoToTrading blame our podcast studio for giving us beautiful Fiji water smh

The time to BUY stocks will be when I’m the one drinking Fiji. Last bottle I had was when I was in Fiji taking a mud bath. All kinds of deals like $META at $100 which yes, I bought.

@mindzeyeshine @EBUYUKARSLAN @amitisinvesting This dude is just jealous he’s not a part of Amit’s and mine’s OnlyFans collab.

@EBUYUKARSLAN @SayNoToTrading @amitisinvesting You sound like a douche bag.

@RenoHemonc @amitisinvesting Amit totally ruined the party.

@SayNoToTrading @amitisinvesting Amit gonna race Ashton Hall - Saratoga vs Fiji

It's too bad the market holiday isn't Wed.

After this, walked to my friend’s who lives on T-word and she hooked me up with a couple cups of coffee. If you actually thought I was talking about the other T-word, you need to get your dirty mind out of the gutter.

I do T-word on occasion, as I did this morning. Trafalgar, best known as T-Street, is a reliable break.

@trader_sahib @VegNews Let me know when you’re having me over for brunch.

@SayNoToTrading @VegNews Love a good tofu scramble and making an omlet mix by blending lentils & other ingredients and cooking in a skillet

Between eggs and tofu, tofu comes out on top, protein-wise, with 17.2 grams per 100 grams versus eggs' 12.5 grams. Plus, tofu has fiber and zero cholesterol. vegnews.com/tofu-scramble-…

@Arkham_27 NO!

@SayNoToTrading Does she live on traderword street?

@shaq858 Looking good

@SayNoToTrading I bought on Friday as well. Will be picking up more if we get below 550.

What is my favorite space stock to buy today? Is it $RKLB, $ASTS, $FLY, $LUNR, $RDW, $SPCX? None of the above. All you degens on here focus on dreams of upside, while ignoring the nightmare potential of a cascade decline. If you had to buy any of the above stocks at today's valuations and hold for 1 year, your confidence of them being at or near current prices or higher would be optimistic to say the least. Looking further out, it gets even riskier. The potential for SpaceX to crash the party eventually is very real. That doesn't mean $SPCX may not stay up here, especially forced buying following index inclusions keeps demand going for months past IPO. In sympathy, Rocket Lab and others may continue getting bid up. Though eventually that all ends and then what? When we have another growth bear market as we did after 2021, these names could fall hard and take a long time to recover, even if their underlying businesses continue to execute just fine. That's why, even though I own all of the above names (including 7-figures in SpaceX) I would not buy today. That doesn't mean I don't like them but rather, the downside risks are too great for increasing their exposure and holding. My favorite space stock today is Northrop Grumman $NOC. Now you may know them best for the B-2 and its successor the B-21, the center fuselage for F-35 (even though everyone associates $LMT with that aircraft), and the new Sentinel system replacing the current Minuteman III (in service for 50+ years). However, space systems = 26% of revenue and includes satellites, space payloads, launch vehicles/boosters, missile defense interceptors, and space exploration/support. Key programs = Graphite Epoxy Motor 63 (GEM 63), Next Generation Interceptor (NGI), Space Development Agency (SDA) satellites, Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), SLS Booster, and various classified programs. Also don't forget they co-developing Eclipse, a new medium launch rocket, with Firefly Aerospace $FLY. When $RKLB was an EV of a couple billion, I said $NOC should buy them as even at a huge premium, it would be a steal and the best fit among the primes. In the next bear market, I would not be surprised to see them buy Firefly if they continue to execute well. If you think AST SpaceMobile's satellites are complicated, they're nothing compared to the James Webb Space Telescope that $NOC built. The accordion arrays on $ASTS BlueBird satellites are simple compared to the Webb's deployment sequence. For you chip chasing degens, don't forget Northrop owns and operates domestic foundries crucial to national security. Being arguably the highest quality among the prime defense contractors, Northrop has rarely been cheap, but it is cheap relative to recent history. Lumpiness in how contracts are paid, further exasperated by all the govt shutdowns and payments delayed by quarters, means that if you are trying to value it by looking at superficial financial metrics, you will miss what's really going on. First 2 screenshots from Gurufocus.

@WinnerInvestor @anthonynoto @basispointpod Keep in mind we have SaaS names growing like that no one wants, too.

@SayNoToTrading @anthonynoto @basispointpod What do you say about 30% revenue growth (yes, share offerings inflate this), and 40% EPS growth? Members grow by a lot too (>30%).

Some statements by @anthonynoto that concerned me in the @basispointpod episode yesterday. - When discussing price to tangible book, discussing how $SOFI shouldn't trade at 2x or less and alluding to 5-6x when matched against what $AXP peaks at. - Similarly, likening them to $JPM price to book which yes, is insanely expensive since 2023 recovery, now around 2.8x, but you we can't really compare any bank to them in terms of size, scale, and safety. $SOFI I believe is around 2.25-2.3x right now. - Being 2nd best (or less) at everything and being #1 at nothing. I appreciate they have irons in the fire but they need to focus on becoming #1 at something, before trying to be #1 at everything at same time. Great if they can do that but it rarely goes that way. - As I had joked for years, they are largely a student loan refi operation that was masquerading as an all-in-one financial institution. This was admittedly harsh and is no longer accurate, though it is a meaningful slice. - Sofi credit card not competitive or marketed properly. Seriously they should have just asked me how to do this. Doubt you can find a one-man business responsible for more organic credit card conversions for $JPM, $C, $COF, $AXP, $BAC than my track record pre-retirement.

@Sai_invst_jrnl @anthonynoto @basispointpod Though, how relevant is personal checking and savings as time goes on? High-yield savings very competitive and commoditized. Why $GS gave up on Marcus.

@SayNoToTrading @anthonynoto @basispointpod I agree on them being #2 in most things, but in Checking & Saving, I would argue they have everything to be #1

@LeoNelissen Feel free to post link here, it’s not spam from you!

@SayNoToTrading Agree. I literally covered them in my free Seeking Alpha article today lol

Or in the case of some of these like $RKLB, up 40x in a couple years. So now they want to buy? What is it about human psychology where vast majority of people only want to buy stocks after they have gone up big? Fundamentals don’t correlate as we know. How come they don’t buy other things, like groceries and electronics that way? I have never understood the thinking of majority, seem so irrational and non-objective. We must think independently and rationally, not be swayed by culture and what everyone else is doing.

@SayNoToTrading This take is far too reasonable for X 😂 everyone must chase what is already up 10x

@Slim20359096 ICBMs and similar are not like drones and semi-disposable battlefield gear.

@SayNoToTrading You don’t think legacy defense stands to be disrupted by the need for cheaper solutions ?

@itai_wiesner You will get wiped out if you think like that. The difference between a crash, a dip, and buy-the-dip opportunity, many people confuse and by the time they realize what's going on, their exit is painful.

@SayNoToTrading You know they wont crash in a single day. We are retail. We have liquidity and can exit at any time and still enjoy the ride