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Michael Rigoni
2.9K posts
@aleabitoreddit @tw_crypto_ Your analyses and predictions are incredibly helpful and I truly appreciate it.
I had to subscribe to your channel - thank you
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@tw_crypto_ This is extremely early for CPO. I just help retail find the next supercycles at the very beginning before institutions do.
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Michael Rigoni retweeté
Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking.
Aggregate TAM would increase 9x:
From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B.
What the actual?
Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging).
This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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Michael Rigoni retweeté
There's a lot of discussion around "CPO supply chains" and what's the most undervalued.
Let me put my opinion out there:
The laser chokepoint ( $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR ) is by far the best exposure to photonics and CPO.
Because there's so much optionality that gave companies like Lumentum the premiums.
With:
-> downstream IP TAM expansion as seen with pluggable optical transceivers
-> vertical integration of InP laser fabs rather than fabless.
-> vertical integration of multiple processes eg. testing or even assembly.
Treat it like you're running your own company and speedrunning it to $100B or $300B.
Not just spreadsheet modeling off projected revenue/margins.
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@aleabitoreddit might have just dropped the most insane $SIVE $AAPL call ever.
Pure gut feeling 🚀
Amen.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.
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@aleabitoreddit Hi @aleabitoreddit when you would let us know, please?
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Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle...
This year:
Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI.
Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE.
Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI.
Curious if anyone can guess?
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Michael Rigoni retweeté
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO.
Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry).
“The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)”
“The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market.
You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years.
With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier.
This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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Michael Rigoni retweeté
I think $SIVE realistically should be valued around ~$3B today after information discovery/news around $YSS + Golden Dome and Lightmatter.
NASDAQ listing doesn’t change it fundamentally, but gives it more liquidity to bridge that valuation gap.
Next year $10B very possible on volume ramp.
And I see a realistic path to competing with $60B+ $LITE over next few years if they want to speedrun it with downstream IP acquisitions.
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Thank you for the confirmation — really appreciate it.
What is your view on Win Semi as the outsourced manufacturing partner for Sivers’ DFB lasers and laser arrays? 🚀
If $SIVE scales, Win Semi should scale with it as the foundry partner. Would you agree that Win Semi is effectively embedded in the same photonics supply chain serving AI datacenters and LEO satellite connectivity?
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@michael_rigoni @PhotonCap @aleabitoreddit Successfully secured qualification for CPO solutions and Jabil’s 1.6T platform.
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A while back (3/19) I covered three small-cap silicon photonics light source names: Sivers Semi $SIVE, Aeluma $ALMU, QD Laser 6613.T.
All three look strong on R&D. But once you dig in, the reality differs.
I was most positive on Sivers.
Stock performance since publish:
$SIVE: +179.37%
$ALMU: +48.88%
QD Laser: +5.17%
(per TradingView)
Sharing the paywall conclusion section above. Worth a look if you want the full breakdown.
Link: photoncap.net/p/the-silicon-…
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@PerDahlstrm @PepInvestStocks @aleabitoreddit Impressive! Seems you really waiting for acquisition or moonshot (which we get some little taste now) 😍
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@michael_rigoni @PepInvestStocks @aleabitoreddit Owned and followed for 8 years. You collect a lot of information then. Things that happens now, we knew for a long time ago. Just took longer than expected.
Ex the picture of customer A, B, C that Serenity shared by Mikael, I drew 2 years ago.I should have put more love into it😬
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Michael Rigoni retweeté
$SIVE was a massive transfer from Swedish locals to US investors.
Locals waited many, many years for all the laser R&D to pay off for CPO and silicon photonics.
And now with hyperscaler volume ramp H2 2026 H1 2027, they don’t get any upside because they transferred their shares over to the US/West after trusting local media.
My prediction is if and when Sivers hits $4-8B on NASDAQ, we’ll get the same media treatment in the US.
Then the shares get transferred from US retail to US institutions.
You’ve already seen the same playbook with $IQE and $SOI at the bottom… with institutions posting “analyst reports” saying Soitec was overvalued.
The next month they go up 3x as Morgan Stanley happens to pick up 6.5% of the $SOI float… or Point72 with $IQE.
Institutions are not your friends. I’m looking out for retail’s best interest though.
aphex@aphexinvests
@StormDirac agree with @aleabitoreddit who calls it a wealth transfer, European media shook out local Swedish holders, now US/Western retail + incoming institutions own more of the float
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Michael Rigoni retweeté
From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers?
Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers.
Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program.
And Lightmatter does require a light source...
$SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together?
End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others.
I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative.
But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
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reddit.com/r/POETTechnolo…
Came across a Reddit thread on r/POETTechnologiesInc discussing the latest PhotonCap piece.
Genuinely impressed by the depth -- one commenter walked through Polariton's nanoscale coupling IP, Marvell's path to module assembly independence, and the H2 2028 timing all on their own.
A separate KISS counter-thesis (NDA-liability-only) also held up throughout. Worth reading both sides.
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@PerDahlstrm @PepInvestStocks @aleabitoreddit LT shareholder right? or someone you know that work for $SIVE ? 😎
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@PepInvestStocks @aleabitoreddit Fun fact. About a year ago, $SIVE CEO Vikram Vathulya was appointed to the GSA EMEA Leadership Council, alongside Karin Raj, Chief Technology Officer Europe at Nokia and a board member of Sivers. It really highlights how much this space runs on networks and relationships.
👇
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@Wharever1234 @whenthishits_ @StormDirac @PerDahlstrm @aleabitoreddit @SiversSemicond $SIVE soon US Nasdaq > Europe 🚀
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@whenthishits_ @StormDirac @michael_rigoni @PerDahlstrm @aleabitoreddit @SiversSemicond So far IMHO it looks like the US side leads. However, the EU side doesn't make it easy and definitely likes to fight the upward trend.
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$SIVE 🚀
Sivers-Semiconductors@SiversSemicond
As demand for faster, more efficient data movement surges, optical innovation is taking center stage. Our advanced photonic solutions are redefining how data is transmitted, enabling high-speed, low-latency connectivity for next-gen applications. lnkd.in/gH_FG-XS
QME
I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks.
Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough.
Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire.
This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.
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@StormDirac $SIVE very bullish setup.
With the OTC move as indication, Stockholm could open with a significant gap up on Monday. 🚀
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