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@CookerFlips @aleabitoreddit Thought so , might need to setup an account bc serenity been focused on these Korean tickers.
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So I do think Auros (322310) is very interesting at $269M MC over in Korea.
What I've found from research was that they're a relatively unknown Samsung / SK Hynix supplier.
And they should high volume ramp from HBM4 capex for Hybrid Bonding Metrology.
Basically pure play on two products:
-> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology.
---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding.
Note on SK Hynix: I thought it would be HBM4e but apparently Trendforce reported today SK Hynix has completed 12-high hybrid bonding HBM validation and is raising yields for mass production. So maybe there's a catalyst there too aside from Samsung.
-> Thin-film thickness measurement.
---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (likely Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year.
Disclosure (I do have positions, NFA, please do your own DD, this is just my thought process)
Regardless, they've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two core products from years of qualification likely H2 this year. There are risks involved, such as not proceeding to HVM, but I'm personally taking that risk.
So I found this company very interesting, just wanted to publish some thoughts on this company.
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@tw_crypto_ This is extremely early for CPO. I just help retail find the next supercycles at the very beginning before institutions do.
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Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking.
Aggregate TAM would increase 9x:
From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B.
What the actual?
Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging).
This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO. Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry). “The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)” “The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market. You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years. With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier. This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.
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@war_346887 @aleabitoreddit Why buy deprecating assets when you can just triple it in the photonic super cycle
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@aleabitoreddit Bro! You are printing money. Are you buying a mansion and Lamborghini?
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@bclay3984 @aleabitoreddit After following serenity , my feeds been filled with his plays.
That is not the same for the general public.
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@tw_crypto_ @aleabitoreddit I hope so brother. I want to buy more asap
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@aleabitoreddit Waiting to see what the new company you mentioned earlier is.
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@tw_crypto_ Yep laser chokepoint has the highest upside imo.
But that doesn't mean other opportunities aren't undervalued/compelling.
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There's a lot of discussion around "CPO supply chains" and what's the most undervalued.
Let me put my opinion out there:
The laser chokepoint ( $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR ) is by far the best exposure to photonics and CPO.
Because there's so much optionality that gave companies like Lumentum the premiums.
With:
-> downstream IP TAM expansion as seen with pluggable optical transceivers
-> vertical integration of InP laser fabs rather than fabless.
-> vertical integration of multiple processes eg. testing or even assembly.
Treat it like you're running your own company and speedrunning it to $100B or $300B.
Not just spreadsheet modeling off projected revenue/margins.
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From the reference... it does look like Lightmatter uses $SIVE lasers?
Which is brand new information discovery and extremely positive for Sivers.
Lightmatter is a massive private leader (~$4.4B valuation back in 2024), with $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM, $AMKR, and $ASX scaling their optical program.
And Lightmatter does require a light source...
$SIVE also happens to be on the $GFS laser source suppliers alongside $LITE, so starting to put the dots together?
End users are likely your hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL (they invested), $META, etc through Lightmatter-GUC and others.
I don't think markets have priced all of this in, since all the supply chain BOM is very confidential + speculative.
But when CPO and next-gen photonic architectures scale up, volume ramp revenue will appear out of nowhere on the balance sheet.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts: Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE. So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them). Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally. Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP + assembly for higher margins anyway. Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
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@aleabitoreddit Bought into $SIVE near 28 sek, little late but better than never !
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Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts:
Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE.
So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them).
Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally.
Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP +
assembly for higher margins anyway.
Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.
Mikael Wåhlin@Plaskpojken
Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨 While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart money knows how to follow the financial footprints. Let’s look at a Sivers corporate presentation from a while back. They listed their anonymous "Optical I/O" clients (Customer B, C, and D) alongside Ayar Labs, and dropped a highly specific clue: These anonymous clients raised a combined $250 million in 2023. Now, let's look at the major Silicon Photonics networking companies that raised capital in 2023: ▪️ Lightmatter: Raised $154 million (Dec 2023). ▪️ Celestial AI: Raised $100 million (Jun 2023). $154M + $100M = $254 million. The math perfectly matches the Sivers slide. What does this mean? It proves that Sivers wasn't just blindly supplying lasers through a middleman. According to their own presentation, Celestial AI (now Marvell) and Lightmatter are their direct customers. When Marvell fires a packaging partner for breaching an NDA, the need for the physical light engine doesn't vanish. The technical "co-design" relationship between the system architect (Celestial AI) and the foundational laser foundry ($SIVE) was already established years ago. Algorithms trade headlines. Fundamental investors trade the supply chain reality. ⏳🔥 $SIVE $SIVEF #DeepTech #SiliconPhotonics #AI
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I've monitored the situation for you.
TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM).
From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings:
Upstream semi supply chains go brrr.
$META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B
Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised.
-> Higher component prices (price hikes)
-> Aggressive AI infra spending
-> Custom Model Training
$MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources.
Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year.
So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them.
Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)
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@JStephswolf @aleabitoreddit I’ve bought through my Wells Fargo bank , no fees on either stock you mentioned.
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@tw_crypto_ @aleabitoreddit What do you mean by this? I have my IBKR tied to my bank account, to deposit money. Is that what you mean? I’m used to using WeBull, Robinhood, Schwab, Ameritrade…
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Uh... what's with $IBKR + Portfolio Margin + Foreign Stocks?
Every single name in Asia or Europe gets slapped to 100% maintenance margin for no reason.
Just because something isn't in the US like in Korea, Europe, or Japan doesn't make it a toxic asset?
Do you guys just use prime brokers or something to get around this?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Woah no way. $IBKR has Korean stocks now. This is going to be fun, I had a lot of ideas in mind I couldn’t long.
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@JStephswolf @aleabitoreddit If you’re in the US try buying through your bank. That’s how I got mine 🤞
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@aleabitoreddit I just got IBKR last night but waiting for funds to settle before I buy. Was also, of course, going to look at it more.
There’s a maintenance fee to buy names like SIVE and LPK? I was using Schwab but they charge $50/transaction
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Front running Serenity post by reading his comments throughout the day
This man has AURA
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I do really like $LPK. Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates… Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO. I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early. However… time seems right now? "About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said. “The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment." Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea? Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me. During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
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I do really like $LPK.
Critical monopoly chokepoint in glass substrates…
Which are used for advanced packaging and CPO.
I flagged it as a potential 10x back in Jan, but thought it was a bit early.
However… time seems right now?
"About four years ago, we began collaborating with a semiconductor company to develop mass-production equipment for direct 3D waveguide formation," Lee said.
“The customer has already installed LPKF's equipment."
Maybe Samsung or SKC Absolics since this was in Korea?
Seems like momentum is ramping up now though like $AEHR pre-earnings, not quite high volume (2027), but around this time felt compelling for me.
During the transition from qualification/pilot -> high volume.
Nicolas@snmart
@aleabitoreddit $LPKF / $LPK positively surprised me today. It literally finished flat despite the correction across the rest of the market. There is buying pressure, and every dip is being bought
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The fact that a large correction looks like a little blip in the overall charts.
Is pretty telling for how “Serenity Stocks” performs over time?
That aside, I’m starting to think everyone’s expectations are too high.
Now if $SOI or $HPS.A are not up 10% a day people are sad. Before 15% return a year was considered very good.
Corrections like these are normal if you zoom out, even if they’re self-inflicted by US media.
Usually if something is a core component in a multi year optical supercycle… Or are backlogged by multiple years for transformers/switchgear.
It’s a lot easier to sleep at night.
Garric G. Nahapetian@garricn
@aleabitoreddit Many of your names have pulled back into a nice buying zone.
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@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on some good names to add today?
We finally got a breather from the past 20 days of constant up (which is an accomplishment on its own).
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