Alex_Capital

The Great Reset, November 19th ratings: Strong Buy · $NBIS · $CIFR · $WULF · $RDDT · $SNAP · $ALAB · $META · $AMZN · $GOOGL · $IBIT · $SOL · $TSM · $RKLB · $TSSI · $SMCI · $GLXY · $SG Buy · $IREN · $KRUS · $CRCL · $LTC · $MRVL · $KRKNF · $OSS · $CORZ · $WLAC · $WYFI · $AMD · $TE · $CRDO · $FLNC · $HIMS · $BULL · $ETOR · $FISV · $FLY · $MU Hold · $COIN · $HOOD · $IBKR · $NVDA · $PLTR · $TSLA · CRWV · $APLD · ORCL Avoid · RGTI · $IONQ · SLNH · $QBTS · OKLO · $WMT · BMNR · $SBET · CRWV _ Explanations Strong Buys Nebius - Extremely undervalued, $7-9B ARR, reset to pre-MSFT deal prices, despite tripling their projected ARR since then, de-risking across the board, and having $4.8B cash for capex spend. Having that much in the balance sheet also isolates them from market credit tightening affecting CRWV and related companies. MSCI inclusion next week delivers an additional few hundred million to low billion in flows for price pressure CIFR - Very undervalued after reset, colo/leasing models with AMZN, GOOGL via Fluidstack isolates them from Burry short arguments. De-risked having long term revenue visibility via hyperscalers. Wulf - Same boat as sifter, GOOGL JV via Fluidstack de-risks them with long term revenue visibility. Not affected by GPU depreciation arguments. Just slow ramp like CIFR due to not doing full stack AI cloud offerings. Reddit - They're back to pre-ChatGPT fear search volumes, yet it's down from $270 to $185. Great earnings, extremely defensible social network to network effect. Not going anywhere. SNAP - $400m+ revenue/year added from AI partnerships. They're also increasing opex efficiency with Google Cloud costs from memories and then monetizing revenue from storage like iCloud. Extremely undervalued going into 2026. Obviously there's going to be tax harvesting from performance this year but very strong by mid December going into 2026. ALAB - Strong earnings beat across the board. Affected by your usual random sell-off. Last time this happened and they had all earnings beat they went from $100 -> $50 and then rallied to $250. This time it's happening again. META - Sub 20 forward p/e. Earnings were one-time tax, even though they beat expectations across the board. Meta > Amazon > Googl in terms of my undervalued mag7 list. Amazon - Fundamentals are increasing across the board and we're reaching your holiday spending time with Black Friday/December sales. Google - They're starting to sell TPUs like NVDA, Gemini 3 is amazing, Buffett is buying buying, they have everything forward for them. Bitcoin (IBIT) - Once in a year buy at $92k. All your leverage traders got margin liquidated and post margin-liquidations are typically when you want to buy for recovery. Don't see this being the same as Nov/Dec 2021, because there was fed tightening. It looks the same but we just came off two rate cuts. Solana - post margin liquidations, high usage but very centralized network riding stablecoin hype. Great recovery buy at $138 TSM - Not quite sure why they sold off. They already projected blowout quarter, blowout forward earnings with increased ~3% margins, and blowout current revenue. They're the center of the whole AI buildout. Rocketlab - Great buy off the 40%+ drop. This is a long term buy (rather than a swing trade), Neutron delay doesn't really affect long term fundamentals if you wait an extra bit. TSSI - Dell/SMCI is a pretty good proxy to see how this company would do. SMCI orders apparently will skyrocket Q2 2026, when the whole datacenter buildout starts ramping up. Revenue lag or quarter miss shouldn't be that bad. SMCI - Same here, quarter miss but forward revenue is insane and this company is very, very undervalued. Normally markets are forward looking so not quite sure why they're looking with blindfolds with companies like SMCI. GLXY - Amazing earnings, just affected by sector selloff. SG - People still eat their salad, it's basically reached all time low at $5.8 and was $40 just 1 year ago. Great recovery buy. Buys IREN - I DG'ed because they ended up buying GPUs and doing full stack iaas and orchestration is more complex than people think when they do deals for MSFT. But that aside it got sold off way too much alongside other DC sector stocks. KRUS - Kind my hidden swing trade stock but decided to release it because why not. We've kinda hit that bottom mark if you want to zoom out to a 5y timeframe you'll see what i mean. CRCL - This was my strong sell stock for the longest time because of dilution. We've hit the point where MC is reasonable again ~$17B and stablecoin volumes like USDC will grow. A huge percent of the float was either 2D after earnings or ~Dec 2nd, I haven't looked into it exactly, but it could go lower which is why I didn't raise it to strong buy. LTC - Litecoin ETF didn't have much of an impact as expected, but if you've been watching since the most recent sell-off, Litecoin held its ground much beter than other cryptos. There's been a lot of altcoin rises like ZCash randomly, so Litecoin has potential. MRVL - They're not priced like other semis that grew 57%. KRKNF - Anduril supplier, and long term defensibility due to critical military components. OSS - Likely anduril supplier, low MC anyway, potential for $200m+ contract even at $100m MC CORZ - $8.7 billion colo with CRWV over 12 years gives CORZ more predictable cashflows, and majority of capex ~80% ($~196m/ $244.5 million Q3) or so was funded by Coreweave, which is a lot nicer of a model for shareholders than convertible debt or toxic debt interest cutting into margins. ~1.3-1.5 GW capacity, Coreweave only taking up 500 MW, and revenue offsetting capex makes it really good. Reason it's not strong buy is Coreweave lol. Extremely high interest debt and openai taking up close ~1/3 of their backlog is worrysome. WLAC - Waiting for spac IPO. High potential there. WYFI - I didn't like this as much due to no long term revenue visibility with hyperscalers, etc. and they didnt get such contracts in their last ER. That being said it got reset to IPO prices so even if I didn't like WYFI as much before, it's a decent buy again. AMD - Huge demand for small/medium sized models/inference. Especially with backlog coming from OpenAI. That being said it's OpenAI that promised $1T+ in capex they don't have so it's not strong buy anymore just given openai competition from gemini3, grok, and other llm models. TE - Energy play that got sold off. CRDO - Same reason as ALAB but it didn't drop as much so it's not as strong as a buy; still great company for connectivity with mag7 clients. FLNC - Energy that got sold off HIMS - Improving fundamentals with Zava acquisition coming in this quarter, $250m+ buyback, pretty solid. BULL - Retail trading is still popular, potential for strong monetization like Robinhood just because of large retail clients. ETOR - 15 p/e or so, 1/3rd cash, pretty undervalued but just tax harvesting. FISV - seems like a UNH type buy at $250. FiserV doesn't look like it's going anywhere at ~7.5 forward p/e 9/e. I'll do a deeper dive one day. FLY - Same thesis from before, medium lift payload with northrop gives it a higher chance of succeeding (when competing with RKLB on reusable medium lift). It's just waiting for 2026 and then stock price is lower than it was before. MU - Memory demand is insane during AI Ramp Avoid RGTI IONQ QBTS - Quantum zero revenue. Probably longer recovery window during high beta selloff because they lack fundamentals to back up MC. SLNH - Just taking advantage of data center hype to raise funds/dilute, with marketing 2.8 GW capacity buildout. If they can convince people to keep giving them money then sure it might pay out but otherwise just stay away and go with nebius or cifr. OKLO - zero revenue, way ahead of its time. WMT - nobody can convince me that walmart which is growing at 3-4% a year deserves a 40 p/e. BMNR, SBET - just buy ethereum as an underlying asset. But that being said I wouldnt buy ethereum above $3k either so these two are a sell. CRWV - so if you're short-term trading, it's actually a extremely solid recovery buy at $75. But.. if you're holding, yeah i'd stay away due to high interest debt cutting into margins, large contracts with openai (like ORCL), still a question mark where openai's getting $1t+. Not quite sure why anyone would buy coreweave when you have nebius which is better in every metric. _ Commentary This is just extremely TLDR-light and half-feels, don't take it as actual DD (but I personally trade on this) That being said, this market wide drop in growth stocks is an amazing opportunity to load up in names you didnt have before (eg. NBIS, RKLB, IBIT, others).

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. government warns that Americans in Iran face a significant risk of questioning, arrest, or detention. Authorities say even showing a U.S. passport or U.S. ties could get you locked up. They're told not to travel to Afghanistan, Iraq, or the Pakistan-Iran border region, while land routes to Armenia, Turkey, and Turkmenistan are open. Source: US Embassy Security Alert

I can make you feel better. I’m not worried and give zero Fooks

Year to Date: 412.72% Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck. In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite: 1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO 2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree). 3. Power/Grid - $XLU. 4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM. I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC? But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading. Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity. I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!

Trade Idea: Long OTM $XLU leaps (2 years, Dec 2027/Jan 2028). This feels like once-a-generation long due to AI. XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies. Two reasons: 1. Paradigm shift due to AI DC electricity usage. 2. Low option IV (~14%) based on historical averages (flat since 2000s). AI power usage is astronomical. This cannot be understated. Never before in history have DCs use up this much GWs in power, especially when they require outputs of nuclear reactors for training LLMs. This forces $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and others to sign multi-year agreements to consume as much power as possible. And yet they still don't have enough. -> So, trillions would likely be poured into grid upgrades. Usually interest rates hurt the sector but we're going into more rate cuts, so it makes the sector a much better long. OpenAI's letter to congress pleaded the US to invest in energy as well to compete vs. China. So, this feels like a once-a-decade type long due to: - paradigm shift eating up any available power from AI - trillions in grid upgrades to compete vs. China - rate cuts. And low IV pricing from historical averages.