Onchain Decoded

2.8K posts

Onchain Decoded

@OnchainDecoded

Decoding onchain data for everyday investors 📊 Whale tracking 🌐 Exchange flows 🌐 Weekly reports 🌐 DMs open for new projects. 📩

शामिल हुए Mart 2023

3.7K फ़ॉलोइंग394 फ़ॉलोवर्स

पिन किया गया ट्वीट

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·14 Mar

Bitcoin has no earnings. No revenue. No dividends. But it does have one number that has defined the floor in every bear market in its history. Most investors have never heard of it. It's called the realized price. It currently sits at $55,019. Here's why it might be the most important number in crypto 🧵

English

229

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·1h

@ZynxBTC 3 out of 4 is the stat that stands out. Power Law resistance isn't a ceiling, it's where price historically pauses before continuing. Onchain confirms the setup: LTH supply at ATH, exchange reserves multi-year lows. The model and the data are aligned. 📈

English

Zynx@ZynxBTC·2h

I'll point out again that a move to the power law resistance (purple) would be entirely consistent with prior "cycles". Bitcoin has reached this level in 3 out of 4 bull markets. That puts it at ~$1M a coin within 2 years. Not a forecast obviously but it wouldn't be unusual.

Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv

Friendly reminder that a simple return to the long term trend of Bitcoin's price points to $200k Bitcoin in under one year. If it takes two years, you're looking at $300k Bitcoin with zero bull market. If we have a bull run on the order of magnitude of 2021... we're looking at $400k-$500k Bitcoin in two years. If we see a reversion above trend that is equal to the deviation below trend we are now... Things are going to get absolutely insane. Now is the time for focused, aggressive stacking.

English

3.8K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·1h

@PhyrexNi Key context: the 1000+ BTC cohort barely moved through the entire 2024-2025 drawdown. Supply stays locked. Each cycle the accumulation baseline resets higher. Exchange reserves dropping in parallel confirms it. Not temporary holding. Permanent removal. 📊

English

Phyrex@PhyrexNi·1h

我重新加入了一组对比数据，能更明显一些，紫色的线是持仓大于 1,000 枚 Bitcoin 的所有地址，确实能看到最近一年中，一直到2024年10月份，也就是 $BTC 的价格还在超过 11 万美元的时候持仓量是一直下降的，但从去年 11 月一直到现在，这个持仓量是缓慢上升的。相对的黄色线是所有交易所的 BTC 存量，在同一时间的时候持仓超过 1,000 枚 BTC 的巨鲸减持了 44万枚 BTC ，而交易所也减少了超过 15 万枚 BTC ，也就是说真正巨鲸减持的也就不到 30 万枚。而绿线是持仓在 100 枚到 1,000 枚 BTC 的地址却增加了 60 万枚 BTC 。目前这个区间持仓的总 BTC 量是 5,168,926 枚 BTC 。

Phyrex@PhyrexNi

实际上如果以持仓超过 10 枚 Bitcoin 算为高净值投资者的话，那么最近一年可以看到这个区间的持仓量是在持续上升的，说明高净值的投资者对于增持 $BTC 还是有兴趣的，不论 Bitcoin 的价格是多少，都在增持。甚至是当 Bitcoin 的价格跌破 70,000 美元以后，持仓量小于 10 枚 BTC 的小规模投资者都在买入 BTC ，这就是目前的趋势，虽然很多小伙伴认为现在的价格还是很高，但投资者的一致性告诉我们，确实目前的价格吸引力挺高的。更重要的是交易所的存量是下降的，就说明高净值投资者的增持是真实用户的概率更大。

中文

6.1K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·1h

@MilkRoad @KevinWSHPod The debt cycle framing is underrated. Onchain adds another layer: each cycle the LTH cohort absorbs more supply and holds longer. Coins are leaving exchanges at a structural level, not just cyclical. The denominator keeps shrinking. 📉

English

Milk Road@MilkRoad·1h

The 4-year crypto cycle isn't random (save this). Raoul Pal explains: after 2008, countries reset rates to zero and put debt in the 3-5 year bucket. "Every four years we roll the debt." But they lengthened duration in 2021. Now it's a 5-year cycle. Pod: @KevinWSHPod Guest: @RaoulGMI

English

1.4K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·1h

@BeardoTrader Power Law has one of the cleanest long-term tracks of any BTC model. What makes this setup notable: onchain is converging on the same signal. MVRV near historical lows. Exchange reserves draining. LTH supply at ATH. Multiple frameworks aligned. 📊

English

Beardo@BeardoTrader·3h

Bitcoin. Could it really be that simple?

English

150

965

162.9K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·1h

@cryptorand @sminston_with Power Law tracks structural value creation. What makes the current position notable: the onchain metrics are saying the same thing. MVRV at historically low levels, Exchange Reserves draining, LTH supply at ATH. Multiple frameworks pointing the same direction. 📊

English

Rand Group@cryptorand·3h

The Power Law magnet can't be stopped. Higher Source: @sminston_with

English

152

16.3K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·1h

@BitcoinTogethe Right. Exchange reserves near multi-year lows, LTH accumulation still accelerating, supply leaving for cold storage. The onchain data has been printing this setup for months. The narrative is just now catching up. 📊

English

Bitcoin Together@BitcoinTogethe·2d

Big signal plus iykyk the narrative is strong with institutional buying just getting started and supply drying up. Better #studybitcoin

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded

@AdamBLiv Power Law z-score at -0.93σ lines up with what MVRV is showing too. Two independent frameworks, same signal. The 12-month median return you cite is consistent with LTH behavior at this MVRV range. When multiple models converge, the signal tends to be more reliable.

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·2h

Bitcoin's price doesn't tell you if it's cheap. The NVT Ratio does. It compares market cap to on-chain transaction volume. When price falls faster than usage, NVT compresses. At these levels, patient capital tends to enter. 📊 onchainnews.blog/bitcoin-nvt-ra…

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·3h

ETH perpetual funding rates are sitting negative. When funding goes negative for an extended period, it means traders are paying to hold shorts. That's an extreme signal. It doesn't guarantee a bounce, but historically it's preceded them. 📊 #Ethereum #Onchain

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·5h

Old wallets are moving. Coin Days Destroyed is spiking. When dormant Bitcoin from years ago starts changing hands, it's the clearest signal that something is shifting in the supply picture. Thread on CDD and what it means right now: Sunday morning. 🧵

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·5h

ETH: $2,068 · +0.91% 📈 Ethereum's mainnet hit 200.4M transactions in Q1 2026. Up 43% from Q4. Record network usage while price sits ~50% off its highs. Ethereum Foundation staked 45,034 ETH on April 3, hitting their 70,000 ETH target. One of the network's largest holders just became one of its validators. $2,000 held as support through the week. Network usage says one thing. Price says another. 📊

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·7h

The Hash Ribbon uses 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin hash rate to identify miner stress. When miners capitulate, the 30-day drops below the 60-day. Recovery comes when it crosses back above. Every major cycle bottom has confirmed this pattern. 📊 #Bitcoin #Onchain

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·7h

@Kimchishka Dormant coin movement showing up in Coin Days Destroyed spikes is the clearest signal this is real accumulation, not rotation. When wallets dormant 3-5+ years move into fresh addresses, history suggests a sustained leg follows. 4 confirmed instances across prior cycles. 📊

English

Kimchishka@Kimchishka·4d

Whale trackers are observing significant movement of dormant Bitcoin from older wallets into new accumulation addresses. This suggests long-term holders are re-positioning, potentially for an even larger bull run post-halving. #OnChain #Whales #HODL

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·7h

@DeFi_Navigator1 LTH supply flipping back to accumulation while Realized Cap stabilizes post-purge is the exact sequence seen in 2019 and 2020 before the major recoveries. When distribution ends and HODL behavior resumes, Realized Cap stops bleeding. That's the inflection point. 📊

English

Defi@DeFi_Navigator1·5d

📊 Bitcoin On-chain Analysis: 1️⃣ LTH Supply (Blue): Long-term holders have shifted back to accumulation after a major sell-off. 2️⃣ Realized Cap (Orange): Liquidity is stabilizing after a deep "purge." Bottom line: From distribution to re-accumulation🚀 #BTC #Crypto #OnChain

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·7h

@glassnode Put demand at the $62k strike tells the same story as aSOPR below 1.0 for 8 consecutive weeks. Options market and onchain both pointing to the same conclusion: weak hands are hedging, not distributing. Capitulation signal, not a top signal. 📊

English

glassnode@glassnode·1d

62k Put Demand Builds Post Expiry Looking at the 62k strike, where short gamma is highest, put premium buying has been increasing. Since the March 27 expiry, demand for long puts has picked up, as macro concerns outweigh short-term hedging needs. glassno.de/4dm5YaS

English

8.5K

glassnode@glassnode·1d

We’re entering April as geopolitical risks weigh on risk assets. Here’s what Bitcoin options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and underlying sentiment.

English

12.3K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·8h

@Bitcoinsensus $30.9B in realized losses in Q1 while exchange reserves sit at 8-year lows and LTH supply is near ATH. The sellers are recent buyers, not conviction holders. Capitulation signal is present. Distribution signal is absent. 📊

English

Bitcoinsensus@Bitcoinsensus·8h

🚨 REKT: Bitcoin whales bled ~$30.9B in Q1 — averaging $337M in losses per day. 📉

English

911

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·8h

@TheRealPlanC 4 metrics with the cleanest historical track record for calling cycle turns: MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, SOPR, and aSOPR. None of them signal $1M by 2027. They put us in an accumulation band right now. The data is bullish, just not hyperbolically so. 📊

English

Plan C@TheRealPlanC·8h

None of these projections follow or align with any of the underlying mathematical patterns that Bitcoin has followed since inception. These are wildly flawed extrapolations of random things that do not drive Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin Archive@BitcoinArchive

"Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031." According to a peer-reviewed pricing model published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management.

English

9.8K

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·8h

@0CcY_ Fear & Greed at 9 with MVRV-Z in the accumulation band is one of the rarest setups this cycle. Supply in profit at bear market lows while price is at $66k means losses are concentrated in recent buyers. LTH haven't moved. That's the setup, not the exit. 📊

English

ˆ0cCy_@0CcY_·1d

BTC supply in profit despenca para níveis de bear market histórico mesmo com preço em $66.7k. MVRV-Z score confirma: estamos em território de máxima oportunidade. Fear & Greed em 9 reflete capitulação, mas smart money já posiciona. Contradição clássica de fundo. #Bitcoin #OnChain #CryptoAnalysis

Português

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·8h

Miner capitulation is the phase most retail investors sleep through. The Hash Ribbon tracks hash rate compression and recovery. It has given clean signals at the last 4 major Bitcoin bottoms. How to read it: 📊 onchainnews.blog/bitcoin-hash-r…

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·8h

@OnchainIns5699 ETH reserves on Binance below Feb 2024 lows while USDC/USDT balances hit multi-year highs. That's not risk-off selling, that's rotation into dry powder. The divergence between ETH reserves and stablecoin reserves is one of the cleaner positioning signals on-chain right now. 📊

English

Onchain Insights@OnchainIns5699·1d

Binance Ethereum reserves are declining while stablecoin balances (USDT, USDC) are increasing, suggesting a shift in exchange liquidity from $ETH holdings into cash-like positions. $BTC #BTC #BITCOIN

English

Onchain Decoded@OnchainDecoded·8h

@TassoLago 63K BTC absorbed in 30 days while aSOPR has been below 1 for 8+ weeks straight. 15,500 BTC/day leaving weak hands into patient institutional demand. Exchange reserves at 8yr lows, MVRV at 1.2. The onchain data keeps printing the same signal. 📊

English

Tasso Lago@TassoLago·1d

ETFs absorbed 63,000 BTC in the last 30 days. Weekly flows running 2.6x above monthly average. Meanwhile short-term holders are still selling at a loss. 15,500 BTC per day leaving weak hands. Institutions buying. Retail capitulating. Classic bottom setup.

English

146

खोजें

@ZynxBTC @PhyrexNi @MilkRoad @KevinWSHPod @RaoulGMI @BeardoTrader @cryptorand @sminston_with