@trapsweet @jumpman826 @voiceofcohen2 This is untrue. bWAR uses DRS, fWAR uses (I believe—their website still says they use UZR but iirc that is not true anymore) Statcast metrics
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jason
29.5K posts
@jumpman826 @voiceofcohen2 FWar uses DRS which highly favors HR robberies for outfielders. Pete plays half his games where that isn’t possible.
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Through the first 25 games of the year, Pete Crow-Armstrong is on pace for a 6.5 BWAR season.
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@TheWARmonger_ Better part of a year.... not sure what I was saying
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@TheWARmonger_ I've been intrigued by an idea for the better part of a rule, but I don't think it's even mildly feasible to implement. You could describe a fielder's movement by a differential equation related to where they see the ball, and somehow tune it to create the "average" fielder
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For those regulars who love to poke holes in defensive metrics, here is a play that is MUCH tougher than catch probability can do justice to. Bookmark it, you're welcome! Great play.
Daniel Kramer@DKramer_
Julio Rodríguez, corralling a 107.5 mph knuckleball.
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@TheWARmonger_ And you also could tune the model to each fielder in MLB and so you could calculate exactly what percent of outfielders would catch a ball. It seems really hard but it would be fun to try some day.
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@TheWARmonger_ @PizzaBoyDavid22 Yea it's a bare minimum of 0.2 seconds delay even with perfect reaction, because the CF camera is 0.2 seconds delayed relative to the other cameras
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@PizzaBoyDavid22 It's tough! My first thought is "find the fielder, how fast is he already moving toward the ball?". It takes a while for the camera to find him, and that can give a strong clue about how good the jump was. What happens before the camera is on him is most important.
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This Matt Shaw grab had 30% probability at first from Statcast (that can change!). Great play!
Jump initially 9.6 feet above average.
Chicago Cubs@Cubs
HE FLEW.
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@bathtub_ginny @afteredenn No, he comes off as someone who is competent at his job but is acting out and hurting people. Pretty much every decision he makes that isn't linked to his job this season is questioned by the show.
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@onlyTrueJason @afteredenn I mean, he has to be proven wrong sometimes. I think that’s the bigger issue - Robby comes across as complex but infallible.
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the pitt’s writing continually supports this idea that although robby may be a dick, he’s ultimately right about his female colleagues (namely al-hashimi and mohan) being unfit in some way or another, and correct to call them out for it. and though it’s possible for this framing+
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@TroySzymanski @mike_petriello If he took 13mph off regularly, he would get absolutely destroyed. We see anecdotally today that when a pitcher loses just 1-2 mph, they tend to be much easier to hit. 13mph? That's like a curveball but without the movement. Just a pure meatball.
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@mike_petriello I hear what you're saying, I just think it would explain so much.
We're spoiled today by pitchers who pitch like it's the last inning, every inning. If Ryan took 13 mph off regularly, it's no surprise his arm lasted so much longer than today's arms seem to.
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You know, it just endlessly comes up that Nolan Ryan must have thrown 108 MPH back in the 1970s, due to him being tracked at 100 (at the plate), and the math working out that 100 at the plate is ~108 out of hand -- as velocity is tracked today. Sure, that'd work.
Except ..
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@TheWARmonger_ Would be fun to filter this only for catches with less than 90% probability or something to filter out routine plays where they might not need a real jump
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Outfield Jump Leaders (4/17/26)
From Statcast/Baseball Savant
Jump is the average amount of distance the outfielder covers toward the catch point in the first three seconds from pitch release. Combo of good reads and acceleration.
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@HughJupside @tangotiger 2022 was his first season with more than 100 innings at shortstop since his rookie year. He put up 13 OAA (98th %ile) and 10 DRS.
Also, keep in mind his defensive stats at 2B have equal value: they compare the difficulty of the plays he makes to ALL infielders, not just 2Bs
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@onlyTrueJason @tangotiger He was a League Average shortstop - which frankly is better than I would have guessed.
If the Cubs believed Hoerner was a Gold Glove caliber SS, there's Zero chance they would have spent $175 Million on another SS whose primary strength was his Defense.
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Nico is an example of a player that the new age baseball analytics loves... not just loves, but LOVES
Nico is 18th in MLB since 2022
So I should say: LOVES!
Steven Cheah@StevenCheah
Nico Hoerner is being discredited by new age baseball analytics
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@HughJupside @tangotiger Nico Hoerner arguably deserved the Gold Glove the year Dansby won it with the Braves. He was pretty fucking good at shortstop
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Lol. If he was "one of the 10 best infielders in baseball", he'd be playing Shortstop, and the Cubs wouldn't have had to spend $175 million to acquire a Shortstop.
One of the differences between people who understand Analytics and Baseball, as opposed to Analytics Only, is the latter is clueless to how dramatically more difficult a position SS is than 2B.
(It's why guys who can't play SS anymore move to 2B, but never the other way around).
Nico Hoerner, age 30-35:
$22 MM per season
Teoscar Hernandez age 33-35:
$22 MM per season
Where does Teoscar rank among MLB everyday players?
Somewhere in the 110-140 range.
Nico signed for the same AAV - at three years younger - as Teoscar Hernandez.
If Hoerner was a Top 20 player in MLB, he'd have waited until Free Agency, and signed for Bo Bichette money ($42 Million AAV, with opt-outs).
If "all that adds up to a Top 20 player" why did Hoerner sign for Teoscar Hernandez money, rather than Bo Bichette money?
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@Keeegs2 @jayhaykid He would need to continue his peak for many more years to reach the hall. I would love it, but it doesn't seem viable. Maybe if he has a big offensive breakout he might have a chance, but I don't see it
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Nico Hoerner is at 21.1 bWAR across his age-25 to 29 seasons, which includes this year.
If he stays healthy (and racks up another 3.4 bWAR this season), he'll be the most productive Cubs position player across his age-25 to 29 seasons (by bWAR) since Hall of Famer Ron Santo.
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@tangotiger @inpredict Ohhh, I understand it now. Yeah, don't agree, but see where it comes from.
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@onlyTrueJason @inpredict If you are 10-0, half the folks would say you are 10 games over .500
Those same folks would say that 8-2 is 6 games over .500
So that would imply that 10-0 is 4 games over .800
It all depends on your perspective and this is ONE perspective. You can have others
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A team has 10 wins and 0 losses
A. How many games above .500 is that team?
B. How many games above .800 is that team?
Glove slap: @inpredict
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@inpredict @tangotiger I stilldon't really get the rationale behind this formula tbh
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@CarcosaMatt @AaronRegunberg That would be a pro-Zionist (or at least ambivalent) point, saying that there is nothing wrong with the existence of Israel, merely its governance, and that a change in governance would fix the country.
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@AaronRegunberg Could one not say the same about Israel? What makes the state of Israel notable isnt just its desire for an ethnostate but its efforts to cleanse the land of Palestinians.
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I’m grateful for Ezra Klein’s super thoughtful column today, and also appreciate that he referenced the piece I wrote on Hasan.
But I need to make one (in my opinion) corrective point. Ezra wrote, "What made the Nazis notable wasn’t their support for an ethnostate. Ethnostates are common. What made the Nazis notable was their effort to exterminate the Jewish people."
I think Ezra would probably agree, if push came to shove, that the Nazis were notable before their launch of the Final Solution in 1941. (It'd be fair to say "what made the Nazis most notable," but "what made the Nazis notable" is just not really defendable, as a precise statement of fact.)
The Nazis were the Nazis in 1933, and 1935, and 1939, etc. They were bad and they were worth opposing before they began their effort to exterminate the Jewish people. And I don’t think it makes much sense to say we can only analogize to them or learn lessons about them post-1941.
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@KnowingBetterYT @RightWingCope Though this type of post ("Republicans did a bad thing. How outraged are you?") is becoming MUCH more common on r/askreddit. Even as a leftist, it is genuinely frustrating.
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@RightWingCope Okay not to get all reddit-mod here, but that super doesn't belong in r/AskReddit ...
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Reddit just BANNED Rep. Ro Khanna for calling for the impeachment of Trump 💀
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@JimSmith1278 @kpdemon6 @Gaul_of_it @primarycatdad AOC is agreeing they should get nothing. But there's nothing stopping them from spending their own money on Iron Dome, which is her point.
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@onlyTrueJason @kpdemon6 @Gaul_of_it @primarycatdad They should be fully embargoed. They should get nothing.
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@kpdemon6 @Gaul_of_it @primarycatdad It's actually quite good when fewer civilians die from wars, so it is actually important to establish that revoking Iron Dome funding, even if not effective at stopping the genocide in Gaza (because Israel doesn't *need* US funding), wouldn't result in more civilian deaths.
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@Gaul_of_it @primarycatdad I'm glad she mentioned the safety of innocent Israelis.
The real victims in all of this 😔.
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@blandalytics Does anything significantly change if you use a GPA system instead? (A+ is 4.3, A is 4, A- is 3.8, B+ is 3.3, etc)
I assume not, but maybe slightly?
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After 2,500 grades (and assuming the letter grades are integers from 0-12), the equation is:
4.03 + (0.95*IP) + (-0.79*ER) + (0.16*K) + (-0.22*BB) + (0.02*HBP) + (-0.15*H) + (-0.08*2B) + (-0.22*3B) + (-0.14 * HR)
Tangotiger 🍁@tangotiger
@blandalytics Can you post the best-fit regression equation?
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