Mike Beuoy

I'm so excited for this launch, and incredibly proud of the work @cwetzel31 and @basketballvalue have put into this. I'm really looking forward to how we can contribute to the sport of volleyball.

Wow what a finish 🎯

i'm gonna say yes

Hockey win probability charts are something else.

@doganjr Sample size is 77 games. And the model also looks at leads by 0, 2, etc. and then does a best fit line.

@inpredict I believe that these sharp conditions would shrink the sample size and may cause some sort of overfitting issue that yields not highly credible estimations even with a 10 season data. I mean, toss a coin just 4 times, observe 3 heads. Could you surely say that P(Head)=3/4 ?

The Sixers were 360 basis points from elimination early in the 3rd quarter.

New post: (belated) March Madness Forecast Thunderdome results open.substack.com/pub/inpredicta…

@doganjr This is based on actual game results. Over the past 10 seasons, when a favorite of 9 to 13 points had a 1 point lead at the end of the 3rd quarter, they won 75% of the time.

@inpredict I think the model relies on prior estimation more than it should. Celtics should not be that much favored at the end of the 3rd quarter since a heavily favored side before the game mostly does not finish the 3rd quarter with a margin like that and the reduced remaining time.

it's fun when your ggplots go off the rails in aesthetically interesting ways

@thunderwarningg Beck?

guess the artist from the release years of their albums and my opinion (hard) 1993: good 1995: PEAK 1997: EXCELLENT 2000: EXCELLENT 2001: good 2003: GREAT 2007: PEAK 2011: good 2016: GREAT

The evolution of sports 100m dash: 1936: 10.2 sec (Jesse Owens) 2009: 9.5 sec (Usain Bolt) World Marathon record: 1936: 2:29 2026: 1:59 Avg WR combine 40 yard dash: 2000: 4.54 sec 2026: 4.44 sec Avg fastball velocity: 1980: 101.5 mph (via former players) 2026: 94.7 (statcast)

@BiddleeeW Songs that aren’t title tracks on their own but when combined say the name of the album: Lola Powerman The Moneygoround from “Lola Versus Powerman and the Moneygoround”

Songs that aren't title tracks where they say the name of the album. Anyone got any more?

@JacobsVegasLife At long last we have created the Torment Nexus, from the classic novel….

Slot machines can now follow you across the casino floor😳

Related:

NBA 🤝 NFL

@onlyTrueJason @tangotiger (10-0) - (8-2)

@tangotiger @inpredict I understand the logic behind +2 (converting wins to losses) and +2.5 (games needed to lose to get to that win percent), but what's the logic behind +4?

A team has 10 wins and 0 losses A. How many games above .500 is that team? B. How many games above .800 is that team? Glove slap: @inpredict

@HeHateMe2_0 @matsonj I don’t follow.

@inpredict @matsonj These are 2 different metrics. What hes describing is relative to a team. Thats "games up." .800 is just a baseline. There is no 4-1 or 8-2.

I’m legitimately curious: If you’re 10-0, how many games above 0.800 are you?

@AudacityOfHoops But “games above 0.500” does?

@inpredict You are 2 *wins* above an .800 baseline, and "games above .800" has no meaning.

@matsonj All you’ve been told is 0.800. What’s your answer.

@inpredict depends if the team is 4-1 or 8-2 or...

@KentWeyrauch @_kaodi_ I think you’d pick 2.5 then. That’s the math answer for how many games you’d have to lose in a row to get to 0.800.

@inpredict @_kaodi_ Isn't "above a 8-2 team" and "above .800" two different questions? One is comparing to other current teams and the other is comparing your record to a benchmark. You need to lose 3 games to dip below .800 so I chose none of the above. I would've chose 2 if it was 8-2 instead.

@_kaodi_ I agree. And 5 games above a 5-5 team.

@inpredict if you're 10-0 you are 2 games above a team thats 8-2