
George Yeung
392 posts





God bless my mum and my home ... That's why I hate cigarettes. Fuck you.



Subscribers only. Many $TSLA uberbulls are using Robotaxi valuation targets based on capacity (trips/day x miles/trip x revs/mile x 365) rather than demand (ride hailing TAM x TSLA market share x price/mile). This will overestimate TSLA Robotaxi valuations by a factor of 3-4x. TSLA now has five credible competitors completing 475K trips per week — Waymo ( $GOOG), Zoox ( $AMZN), $BIDU, $PONY and WeRide — with more on the way. Capacity-based models don’t consider relative market shares of competitors or their brand propositions to consumers. They literally assume TSLA takes 100% share. Any TSLA valuation model has to look at overall ride hailing TAM x % autonomous share x TSLA’s share of autonomous to be credible. Otherwise you wind up with wildly exaggerated valuation estimates.





Just fyi I don’t have personal loans at this time against Tesla stock. Also, the taxes on the options are ~45%, so net gain in voting control is more like 4%. It is worrying in that I don’t want to build millions of robots and then potentially be ousted by activists and unable to ensure that public safety remains of paramount importance.



I took a robotaxi from my accommodation to Terry Black’s BBQ in Austin. From now on, I'm going to compare every segment to Uber. The robotaxi fee($3.12) was more than twice as cheap as Uber($7.98).
















