Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro

Citadel's Griffin says recession is unavoidable if Hormuz stays shut. Meanwhile the Nasdaq just ripped 10 straight green days and the S&P is about to print a new ATH. The ceasefire expires April 22. One side of this trade is about to get destroyed.

@sptomlinson325 @unusual_whales Clearly, they is an after and a before AI, it's not a bubble

@AxiomMarkets @unusual_whales It’s an Industrial Revolution. Pandora’s box is open. Invest in the strong companies to take advantage.

AI's labour market with most exposed jobs that AI can perform:

@KobeissiLetter I could easily see Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of the month.

BREAKING: Bitcoin rises above $76,000 and hits its highest level in 10 weeks.

@DeItaone Trump lose this war in our view...

TRUMP SIGNALS FLEXIBILITY IN IRAN TALKS Reports citing a senior Gulf official say U.S. President Donald Trump may offer new concessions in negotiations with Iran. The official added that Trump is serious about the talks and aims to resolve the issue.

@arihiraaibi We'll see, for now taking long-duration trades is complicated. Our view is that macro is extremely volatile with the ongoing conflicts and the Fed's uncertainty. We'll be analyzing it day by day.

@AxiomMarkets Meh. Markets will shrug. Even if a "crash/stagflation/correction/insert-fear-here" Big money will buy Retail will be liquidity Those prepared will grow wealth exponentially like before Those unprepared will play blame game New ATH eventually as ATLs do not exist for the market.

🚨POWELL HAS A PROBLEM🚨 Oil is at $95. CPI is about to rip. His successor gets named in weeks. He can't cut rates — inflation will explode. He can't hike rates — the market will crash. He can't do nothing — the credibility of the Fed dies. This is the trap. And there's no way out.🧵⬇️

@NoLimitGains @InTheAssembly In our view, during this market environment we have to take short-term trend trades. Macro is very volatile and we will be monitoring this in real time.

One week in and a lot of people have already made the membership fee back. Number one for a reason. @InTheAssembly 🥂

@FirstSquawk We don't think Hezbollah will be disarmed, and watching intraday markets to catch the current trend, position trading is very hard currently, in our view.

ISRAEL'S DEFENSE MINISTER KATZ STATES HEZBOLLAH WILL BE DISARMED SOUTH OF THE LITANI RIVER EITHER POLITICALLY OR MILITARILY ONCE THE CEASEFIRE ENDS.

@ther_rag IMO, Trump took Venezuela to prevent China from easily sourcing oil, and the same logic applies to Iran. I don't know what you think about it, but it's still pretty strange that he's trying to weaken all of China's partners and nobody is talking about it.

@AxiomMarkets Trump doesn't want to find a solution. He wants EVERYONE to buy his stolen Venezuelan oil.

Bloomberg: U.S.–Iran deal could take up to 6 months. Market implications: → Oil: risk premium stays bid. No quick de-escalation means every Hormuz headline is a spike. Dips get bought. → Equities: overhang on risk assets. NQ/SPX can grind higher, but any tanker incident caps upside and fuels vol.

@NoLimitGains And the same person will think that a win is also unrealized — the thing is that the market can turn quickly because x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

“It’s only a loss if it’s realized.” Well, if you haven’t sold, you haven’t made money either. Goes both ways.

Oil prices are far more driven by developments in the Middle East conflict than by Fed interventions. Ceasefire discussions and hopes for an end to the war are the main catalyst behind the drop in oil prices, however, this can reverse very quickly. The last few days have not been simple, with all of Trump's lies.

@AxiomMarkets Who do you think is smashing oil prices down? The Fed is doing it to keep inflation low.

@NoLimitGains I agree, it's the biggest wealth creation event driven by AI, and tech stock but how do you think the fed will handle this ? And how the market will react ? x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

We are in the middle of one of the greatest wealth creation events in human history. And it’s getting late. Let me put this in perspective. The pattern has repeated 3 times since 1900. The market grinds higher for 15-20 years. Builds enormous wealth. Then flatlines, resets, or crashes. Sits dead for a decade or more. Then a new multi-decade bull run begins. Bull Run #1 – 1949 to 1966 Came out of the ashes of WW2 and the Great Depression. 17 years. S&P compounded at 11.4% per year. Total gain: over 500%. Then 1966 hit. Stagflation. Vietnam. The Fed tightened. The next 16 years – 1966 to 1982 – the market went essentially nowhere. Flat. Bleeding. A generational dead zone. Bull Run #2 – 1982 to 2000 Volcker killed inflation. Valuations were at multi-decade lows. The Dow went from 776 to 11,722. 1,409% in 18 years. Then the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000. Two crashes followed. The S&P delivered -3% annualized from 2000 to 2009. Another lost decade. Bull Run #3 – 2009 to now. March 9, 2009. S&P bottoms at 676. The world looked like it was ending. Since then – over 940% total return. 14.55% per year on average. For 17 years straight. The COVID dip in 2020 was the first real scare. Recovered in months. Every correction got bought. Every dip felt like the end. None of them were. Until one of them is. The last two secular bulls lasted 17 and 18 years. Both ended when nobody expected it. Both ended with euphoria at the top. We are 17 years in. AI is real. The earnings are real. The momentum is real. But so is the valuation. So is the leverage. So is the retail participation. The fuel that drives a bull market to its peak is the same fuel that makes the crash brutal. Risk/reward from here is the worst it’s been since 2000. You’re not being paid enough to take on full exposure right now. A 10% upside from here vs a potential 30-40%+ drawdown if the cycle turns? The people who got destroyed in 2000 and 2008 weren’t idiots. They just didn’t have dry powder when it mattered most. Dry powder is not dead money right now. It’s optionality. It’s the ability to buy at prices that don’t exist yet. It’s what separates the people who survive the reset from the ones who need 10 years just to break even. The pattern always completes. The question is whether you’re positioned for what comes after the top, not just before it. Stay sharp. Protect the gains. Keep powder dry. History doesn’t lie. I will share a full report on this later. Notifications ON, this is very important.

@GeneralPetite I seriously don't know how the Fed will handle the situation. I think that until the market crashes, they will not move rates.

@AxiomMarkets «The market will crash? Good. It's time to reset this twisted game.»

@KobeissiLetter They will soon enough see more because x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

US consumers are seeing huge increases in gas costs: US consumer gas spending surged +16% YoY in March as the national average for gasoline soared to a record $4.12 a gallon, driven by the Iran War. Overall, Americans spent +25% more on fuel in March than in February. However, other spending categories have not been significantly impacted yet. Entertainment spending jumped +12% YoY last quarter, followed by travel at +6%, and retail at +5%. Total credit and debit spending rose +6% YoY in Q1, with transactions up +4% YoY. If elevated fuel costs persist, they will begin to crowd out spending in discretionary categories. Higher fuel prices are poised to pressure household budgets.

@unusual_whales Taxpayer money also serve this mistake x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

"You're spending taxpayer dollars to drink milk shirtless in a hot tub with Kid Rock. Somehow you think that's a better public health message than informing the public about the benefits of vaccines." Representative Linda Sanchez has said to RFK Jr.

@unusual_whales So if fight resumes the fed will be... x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Trump: "If there's no deal, fighting resumes."

@unusual_whales Powell will not be here for him too x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Trump: Italy wasn’t there for us, we won’t be there for them!

@derpcon5000 @NoLimitGains hoping they cut

@AxiomMarkets @NoLimitGains Either cut or wait. Doesn’t matter. It’s all priced in

Uhoh

@unusual_whales Trump and Powell are in a bad situation x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

President Trump vows to look into the 10 scientists who have gone missing or turned up dead: "I hope it's random, but we're going to know in the next week and a half." "I just left a meeting on that subject." "Pretty serious stuff... Some of them were very important people, and we're going to look at it over the next short period."

@KobeissiLetter I wonder what will do the FED, seriously when you understand how bad the situation is... x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

BREAKING: China’s crude oil production is up to a record 4.6 million barrels per day. In Q1 2026, total oil production in the country rose +1.3% YoY, to 4.4 million barrels per day. Since 2018, Chinese oil output has risen +1.0 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, refinery throughput rose +1.1% YoY in Q1 2026, to 184.3 ⁠million metric tons, or 14.9 million barrels per day. At the same time, natural gas output rose +3% YoY in Q1 2026, to 68.1 billion cubic meters. China is ramping up domestic energy production as Gulf supply disruptions reshape global energy flows.