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ColdmanSax
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ColdmanSax
@ColdmanSax
Commodities and emerging / submerging markets specialist. ‘My formula for success is rise early, work hard, and strike oil.' - J. Paul Getty and ME
Bergabung Mayıs 2021
0 Mengikuti3.8K Pengikut
Helium stocks on the boring end of my watchlist just might become interesting again.
Time to refresh work on this space…
The Associated Press@AP
Iran war halts Qatar helium output, threatening global tech supply chains apnews.com/article/iran-c…
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If you think commodities are strategic now, just wait until the US takes Kharg Island and China makes a real move on Taiwan.
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“Straits of Hurmuz”
Lots of commodity tourists these days…
Charles Gasparino@CGasparino
As someone who has covered markets for years, I will say this. commodity traders, like equity traders (in the words of a smart bond trader I know) are "imbeciles." They trade off headlines, totally myopic in short-term thinking and predicting. They always screw up what's actually going down, never seeing around corners. It was the case in the run up to the 2008 where there was more than a few market "rallies" before the whole market blew up. This oil price spike has the same feel to it. It's not considering that within days we will 100% control the supply of oil coming out of the Straits of Hurmuz, or that Iran will be 100 decapitated as a military force and a financier of terror. There will be a peace dividend to all of that. Meanwhile buckle up as the Karens who control oil prices have their say, at least for now wsj.com/livecoverage/i…
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We will see this move from defense manufacturers --> their parts/components suppliers --> their specialty alloys suppliers --> refining/smelting --> the MINERS.
This is jet fuel for critical minerals markets...
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
U.S. President met with key U.S. defense manufacturers today and announced on his Truth Social app that the prime defense manufacturers, including BAE Systems, Boeing, L3Harris Missile Solutions, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Honeywell Aerospace, will quadruple production of “exquisite-class” or high end weapons. According to the president, the expansion of high-end weapons production began three months prior to the meeting and expansion of plants and facilities is already underway.
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@ColdmanSax No love for larger companies? (except the oil sands)
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The energy sector is alive again - some themes and companies to do your work on...
Offshore drillers $RIG
Canadian oil sands (and short CAD) $SU $CNQ $CVE
E&Ps $SEI.V $KOS $MER.TO $AET.L maybe $TLW.L $RKH.L
Any others?
If this becomes a 1970s style environment, buckle up...
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More on oil as a critical mineral, I had this report in my files from 2019. Highly recommended.
Oil price/supply is either the catalyst or the impediment to GDP growth.
simonmichaux.com/reports
Scroll to the bottom - Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective by @SimonMichaux
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Carbon (oil / gas / coal / derivs) might be added to the USGS Critical Minerals list soon…
The White House@WhiteHouse
The Trump Admin will continue to unleash American energy dominance. President Trump has previously announced the U.S. will provide political risk insurance, at a very reasonable price, for crude carriers & cargo ships operating in & around the Gulf.
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Lindian Resources $LIN.AX connecting their supply chain by acquiring an existing MREC processing facility in Kazakhstan - to process their REE material from Malawi.
The market likes the headline and so do I.
This is one to do your work on.
miningweekly.com/article/lindia…
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Smart move by $USAR to clean up the ownership structure of Round Top.
reuters.com/business/usa-r…
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Amidst just a few headlines, you may have missed the @DeptofWar request for project proposals under the Defense Industrial Base Consortium.
They will issue additional RPPs with more focus commodities, but here is the first list.
Invest accordingly!
dibconsortium.org/wp-content/upl…
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Copper M&A coming soon to a theater near you.
This will be one of the biggest investable themes of this cycle…
Yellow Lab Life Capital@YellowLabLife
This is a smart deal, a few eucalyptus ponderings Taylor and Robert, last chance…but probably can’t bring yourself to pay a premium Copper project pipeline replenishment M&A is on the table now In consensus first world countries what’s there in the development pipeline >100ktpa CuEq not controlled by majors already? Anything better than Los Azules and Berg? If we drop down to 50ktpa, Marimaca obviously but buyer universe for 50–100ktpa different than 100+kt projects As for pro forma Hudbay, this is a little sacrilegious to say but there is going to be a recurring buyside debate now do you want to own which growth story: Vicuña build out Copper World + Cactus + Maria Reyna + New Britt deeps
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@vernic_daniel Not miners, but explorers and developers with leverage. If you are confident that copper is going to double (or more), then you should not be buying the highest quality projects. Look for the marginal projects that can't make money at $6/lb, but are in the money at $10/lb+
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@ColdmanSax I’m not fully understanding how a 2x in the underlying commodity price would lead to 10x+ in the explorers/miners of that commodity. Genuinely asking as I have a big position in a junior copper exploration company
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I think copper can more than double in the next 1-3 years.
And the list of attractive copper explorers/developers is not very long.
Once generalists get a whiff of this, you'll see 10x gains before copper prices double.
It's an easy story for commodity tourists to understand.
TheGladiator@TheGladiatorHC
The King of Copper, Robert Friedland, full presentation at the Future Minerals Forum titled 'The dawn of the copper age' "It's very clear that the copper price must double to meet future mining needs." If the Copper Price doubles, Copper stocks will 10X.
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@WrongVery1968 @Stefan_Skippy Most of the companies I've mentioned before are still worth doing your work on. I'll post a fresh list soon.
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@Stefan_Skippy @ColdmanSax Thanks sir, thanks for letting me a tourist. I do hold COPP &COPJ, and have for 6ish months! Any other deep value in this space you like?
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@commodity47_79 Eventually, yes, but they are still huge net importers today, and for the foreseeable future.
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@ColdmanSax They will continue to fast track, nuclear power, solar, wind and EV adoption, while getting more coal.
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China's biggest vulnerability has always been their huge net import reliance on OIL and FOOD.
With Venezuela + Iran potentially offline (at least for China), oil supplies are tight.
In every country, energy/fuel prices have STRONG inverse correlation with political approval.
The Drunk Republican@DrunkRepub
China be like
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Add another to the list. $BMM with the recently announced acquisition of the Apex germanium and gallium mine from $TECK.
Congrats to @AdventusCEO and his team! I like this deal a lot.
This is one to do your work on.
bluemoonmetals.com/blue-moon-to-a…
ColdmanSax@ColdmanSax
FDY.TO up 20% on 4x avg volume on this headline. And a smart acquisition. This is one to do your work on. Buying good medium-sized projects from majors will be a big theme this cycle. $FMT.V is another to watch. They bought the Coffee gold project from $NEM.
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Maybe.
But explorers don’t reprice just because copper doubles.
They reprice if they can fund, permit, and build.
Copper is a scarcity thesis.
Explorers are execution theses.
If generalists arrive, the metal tightens first.
Equities still carry dilution, jurisdiction, and capex risk.
If the bet is structural supply constraint, why add another layer?
Which moves first the story, or the cathode?
Flow decides.
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I think the oil market will open up 10%+ with volatility and big volume - then sell off during the day/week.
Same for oil equities, with 1:1 beta.
But this will set the stage for a broader oil/energy bull market.
Pick your entry level carefully, but it’s time to get long.
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I met with Edward Heerema and his team a few years ago in their offices.
He is the very definition of a mad scientist - in a good way. The world needs more real delivery on BIG and wild ideas.
He basically bet his business on building the Pioneering Spirit, and it paid off.
Bart 🌊⚓️@BartGonnissen
The Pioneering Spirit is the largest vessel in the world by gross tonnage(GT 403,342). It was designed specifically for the single-lift installation and removal of large offshore oil and gas platforms, as well as the installation of subsea pipelines. (AllSeas)
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