Compound interests

@LukePreston687 @3PeaksTrading Wasn’t it the preponderance of portfolio insurance rather than the lack of it? ‘87 crash was basically negative gamma. Something catalyzed the selling but then selling begat selling. Maybe wrong but that’s my recollection.

@CLouvi Great stuff, thanks for sharing. For many years now there have been solo VCs. I firmly believe we will see successful solo PE efforts in the years ahead. Just gotta know which verticals it makes the most sense in.

Building something similar? DM me. I'll tell you exactly what stack to use.

How I replaced a 5-person operations team with 11 AI agents on a $120/month Mac Mini. A thread:

@APompliano Great list. Can you elaborate on #10 based on #1? You haven’t yet replaced any SaaS but you’ve also not pursued M&A because you realized you could build in-house? So which tools or products did you build in house? Thx

Here are 13 things learned after making a big push to integrate AI into our companies: 1. We haven’t replaced a single external SaaS tool with something we built internally. 2. We have refrained from hiring numerous entry level jobs because AI can do the work faster/better/cheaper. 3. The automation provided by AI highlights how much time every person was wasting on tedious tasks daily. 4. Each company is capturing more revenue and each employee is becoming more productive. 5. There is still a bit of apprehension in giving agents full control of machines or systems. 6. There has been no obvious trend in age, gender, or role for those who adopt AI the fastest. More of a mindset than anything. 7. Many non-technical people have started to create software tools or products, which has changed the speed of execution across the companies. 8. One downside is the AI slop across written documents/memos. If humans don’t review the content, it is painful to read and I worry critical thinking gets lost. 9. The implementations of AI are incredible once you get them done, but it is much more difficult to build/implement than most people want to communicate online. Persistence needed! 10. We have walked away from numerous potential small acquisitions because we realized we could build the product ourselves for a fraction of the cost. 11. Our best engineers are invincible now. They produce high quality products at warp speed. Forget 10x engineers, they are 1,000x engineers now. 12. The adoption of AI starts at the top. If the company leader is not constantly asking “how do we automate this?,” it is harder to drive internal change. 13. I am personally working harder than I have in a long time and having more fun than ever. It feels like a moment in time that has to be seized. Overall, I believe AI is underestimated, not overestimated. The worries about SaaS software are probably overblown. The labor market impact is very real and only accelerating. Businesses are fundamentally changing. Start paying attention!

@aleabitoreddit Amazing performance to state the obvious. But your portfolio is up nearly 1,000%, so you’re expressing these views mostly through call options? Thx

The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF. YTD Returns of Each Index Stock: $IQE: +282.5% $AXTI: +246.6% Landmark: 167.54% $AAOI: +157.37% $SIVE: +113.08% $SOI: +103.54% $LITE: +100.27% $LWLG: +92.35% $VIAV: +88.71% $AIXA: +73.92% $AEHR: +70.4% $CIEN: +67.67% $FORM: +60.67% $FOCI: +60.44% $CAMT: +49.13% $GLW: +46.77% $SMHN: +45.94% Fujikura: +43.89% $COHR: +41.81% $KEYS: +40.48% $TSEM: +36.42% $ASX: +29.89% $MTSI: +28.34% $NOK: +27.5% Shin-Etsu: +27.33% $ONTO: +26.28% $BESI: +24.71% $UMC: +18.11% $INTC: +17.27% $OXINF: 15.03% $FN: +12.79% Eoptolink: +11.82% $TSM: +6.00% $HIMX: +5.39% $SMTC: +4.11% Sumitomo: +3.67% $CSCO: +3.25% Innolight: +.33% $MRVL: +.16% $APH: -6.48% $MXL: -7.62% $AVGO: -7.99% $POET: -12.99% $TEL: -14.93% This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark). However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year. The equal weighted return? 50.033% I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward. Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments. Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.

@toddsaunders Terrific idea

A Fortune 500 exec who runs one of the biggest blue collar companies in the country DM'd me yesterday. Gave me an idea that I'm starting to get really excited about. Build a version of YC for blue collar builders who use Claude Code. Essentially an accelerator for blue collar founders building for trades, construction, fleet, field services, etc. Whatever their domain expertise is. They offered to help fund the first batch, and we started to put together a list of incredible mentors. It's crazy how fast the power dynamic in software has shifted. But this could be very big.

@MRatable Fair point

@Compounds365 Agree that it makes the old growth algos harder but my point is if you’re winning a piece of the (much larger) labor budget you will grow faster than you did before.

If software companies are selling enough ai product to impact their gross margins, absolutely no one will care about their gross margins

@JC_ParetsX Usually yes but depends on the reason for stress. Lots of oil or oil derivative inputs in Staples. Energy has been the defensive haven ofc.

On an equally-weighted basis, Consumer Staples are the worst performing sector in March. This is the group that money flows into during signs of stress.

Not necessarily but could cannibalize the feature creep + price hike that would otherwise have happened. And likely at much lower gross margins. So far public SaaS as a group have not really seen any acceleration or margin improvement from AI and it’s been > two years. Meanwhile OAI and Ant are growing 100% a year making coding tools. Public SaaS is clearly losing share.

@Compounds365 Adding new streams of revenue does not mean losing existing revenue.

March expiry bullish, bearish or who care-ish? Do we bounce afterwards? Market maker positions tell a clear story about what to expect through the rest of the month.. retweet this I'll tell you what the positions imply on today's TGIF call. (8:15am et - see you there)

@stats_feed Wow. Who’s 181 and 182?

🇻🇪 Venezuela ranks 180/182 on corruption index

@Jason_A_Scharf Think mainly just size. AI job concentration is higher in Austin but Dallas Forth Worth is many times larger than Austin.

Anyone have any thoughts why Dallas is ranked higher than Austin for AI-enhanced jobs? Is it just size? Everything they list in the article applies to Austin. (Fair chance I am way overthinking this)

@KobeissiLetter This may be true now but arguably changes once / if tangible signs of financial improvement emerge. If the big companies can bolster revenue growth rates or improve margins by implementing AI, I suspect investor mood brightens.

Wall Street is becoming increasingly concerned about Big Tech CapEx: 22% of global fund managers now believe companies are deploying too much CapEx, the 2nd-highest on record. Since 2005, the only higher reading was 33% in February 2026. In the prior 20 years of the survey, fund managers had never been concerned about firms overinvesting. By comparison, 70% of participants believed companies were investing too little in 2017. Not even the 2008 Financial Crisis saw such elevated CapEx concerns, when 10% of participants said firms were spending too little. Institutional investors are growing concerned about big tech CapEx.

Industrial turnarounds can be hard but rewarding. One of the best to do them consistently with top notch results is Michael Psaros of private investment firm KPS. Key takeaways from a Dec ‘25 appearance on podcast “Private Equity Fast Pitch”: • “We are industrialists and manufacturers first”….focus on operational improvement not financial engineering • Heavy emphasis on building value stream maps, setting KPIs, and working closely with the supply chain • In a separate podcast also on 2025, he suggested it was still a bit too early to expect major impact from AI [but may not have been referring to use of automation or robotics ] Very thoughtful and successful manufacturing investor and well worth listening to

BREAKING: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them, per WSJ.

Industrial turnarounds on the rise First Atoms @travisk, now Bezos’ $100bn bet on improving the operations and productivity of physical assets with automation and process redesign. If we’re in the first inning of “AI native” software, we’re still in warmups for AI augmented industrial redesign.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a fund to acquire manufacturing companies and infuse them with artificial intelligence, the Wall Street Journal reported bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Taking the next step, literally •Rivr is wheel based robotics. Four legs and wheels, able to climb stairs. •Solves the “last hundred yards” problem of gates, porches, decks •Reduces dependence on humans for delivery, all while collecting real world data Finding new ways to get practical experience helps the flywheel of doing, learning, iteration.

Amazon acquires startup Rivr to test robots for 'doorstep delivery' cnbc.com/2026/03/19/ama…

@lesser_fool @jam_croissant @qthomp What current pain ? Taiwan is the king chess piece.

@Compounds365 @jam_croissant @qthomp Hence my Queen analogy. The Queen is the strongest piece, on paper, but even grandmasters allow it to be taken in the rare event that defending it would actually hurt their chances. You’re right about the pain of ceding it. What about the pain of defending it?

For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait closure could delay or prevent that? @jam_croissant

@gregory_FTA SemiAnalysis said on a podcast that memory spend is 1/3 of the datacenter capex. If that holds, take whatever share of total capex belongs to them, gross up to reflect $1.0T, multiply 33%, and then take mu share of memory to ballpark their revs.

What do you think a trillion dollars in revenue for $NVDA means for $MU?

@lesser_fool @jam_croissant @qthomp I asked a question. And offered a naive opinion. I wasn’t suggesting I was some military export. Having said that because Taiwan sits at the heart of the global semiconductor industry, which powers everything, it would seem that “ceding” it would be a disaster.

@Compounds365 @jam_croissant @qthomp sidenote: why wade into a military strategy discussion if you’re going to fall back on “idk I’m not an expert”? None of us are! But the premise we accept by participating at all is that reasonable minds can deduce incentives and pontificate from there. You’re not interested?

@ZeeContrarian1 Possible opex keeping things less volatile than they otherwise would be?

$SPX down 1% while $VIX is RED - that’s hedge unwinding. When protection comes off into weakness, it usually signals exhaustion in fear. For this Iran-driven cycle, it suggests we’re getting close to a local bottom in my view.