Citizen

An Indian businessman explaining economics to the former Chief Economist of the World Bank and current Professor of Economics at Cornell University!

Since the day that AAP was launched, I was unable to understand how it was any different from the BJP. Only the most naive think that it is possible to remain incorruptible when in power. So, once that was gone, as it was bound to, there was no other USP left.

All in all, Raghav Chaddha is a good import. The BJP needs a few sophisticated voices. It's currently filled with too many dehatis at that level. Of coz he's no Arun Jaitley. That's a strong gap that hasn't been filled even today. Still, good import.

The Video was for people in the USA. Tweet is for people in India.

This post neither mentions Donald Trump or his ‘hellhole’ remark. दूर दूर से - calls it uninformed and in poor taste.

The Arab oil embargo of 1973 was basically the stagflation starter pack. - Oil did a 4× - US GDP rolled over ~2.5% - stock market crashed ~fifty percent - Inflation went from ~7% to ~12% That was "just" 600 million barrels missing from global supply Now look at Hormuz: even in the fairy‑tale scenario where the Strait reopens today and no infrastructure is damaged, rerouting alone takes months. Storage has to be drawn down, tankers repositioned, and only then can production really ramp back up. By the time barrels actually flow normally again, we’re looking at a cumulative loss in the ballpark of 2 billion barrels. That’s more than 3× the 1973-74 supply hit. If 600 mb gave us stagflation, what do you think 2 billion barrels will give us?

محللو الجزيرة لأحمديان: لا يجب أن يكون هناك سـ.لاح داخل الدولة مثل حـ.ـزب الـ.لـ.ـه الذي لا تسيطر عليه #الدولة. الدكتور #حسن_أحمديان بسرعة بديهة عالية: و #القواعد_الأمريكية في دولكم؟ هل هذا سـ.لاح بيد الدولة؟

Trump says his life was better before he became President. So was everyone else’s.

About 1.5 crore people in India have a taxable income of over Rs.5 lakhs per year. Number of individuals who traded F&O during the year was 85 lakhs. Also, 90% of people who trade F&O lost money. The data makes it obvious that a lot of people who earn below Rs. 5 lakhs a year trade F&O - and lose money. Unfortunately, this is a bunch of people for whom the losses actually pinch in a big way.

To save 1 litre of imported crude, India is spending 2,860 litres of groundwater. That's the single statistic missing from the entire E85 debate. E20 is done. The government's draft notification for E85 (85% ethanol, 15% petrol) is ready. Most reactions are either "great, energy independence" or "my mileage dropped." Both are shallow. Here is the actual trade India is making. The economic logic is real: India imports 85%+ of its crude. The FY25 import bill was ~$137 billion. Ethanol blending has already saved ₹1.08 lakh crore in forex and put ~₹92,000 crore in farmers' hands since inception. Every 1% of blending = ~$1 billion in annual savings. But ethanol is not a free lunch: 🔹 Ethanol has 33% less energy per litre than petrol. 🔹 US DoE data: FFVs on E85 get 15 to 27% fewer miles per gallon than on petrol. 🔹 The offset is octane. E85 rates ~105 vs petrol's 91. In purpose-built engines (turbo, high-compression, direct injection), higher octane recovers most of the energy loss. The catch. India's fleet is 90% E10-ready at best. You cannot pour E85 into a Swift. Flex-fuel vehicles need stainless fuel lines, upgraded pumps, 30% larger injectors, ethanol content sensors, and recalibrated engine maps. The hidden cost nobody is pricing: 🔸 E20 at today's consumption needs ~1,016 crore litres of ethanol annually. 🔸 At 2,860 litres of water per litre of ethanol, that is ~2.9 trillion litres of water per year. The annual water footprint of 200+ million Indians. 🔸 E85 scales this 4x+. 🔸 60% of India's ethanol now comes from maize and broken rice. India, a net corn exporter, imported 1 million tonnes of corn in 2024 because of ethanol diversion. 🔸 Retail sugar moved from ₹40 to ₹45/kg in two years partly due to cane diversion. The reframe most people miss: The ethanol programme is not an energy policy. It is an agricultural subsidy dressed as an energy policy. The forex savings are real. The farmer income transfer is real. Both are the actual goals. The mileage drop is a tolerated cost. The water and food inflation risk is the hidden tax. E85 will happen anyway. The listed winners sit in three buckets: 🔸 Sugar and distillery players with integrated ethanol capacity 🔸 Auto ancillaries making ethanol-compatible injectors, pumps, fuel lines, sensors 🔸 OEMs going flex-fuel first (Toyota, Maruti and Hyundai are already prototyping) Energy independence is not free. India is trading barrels of oil for billions of litres of water and millions of tonnes of grain. Whether it's worth it depends on which constraint matters more in 2040 — your oil bill, or your aquifer.

Till Election campaign was on prices were in control, now we will see the oil and petrol prices go out of control. Be prepared.

People who think Iran has won this war or will win this war are living in a fools paradise. If it goes into full blown war, it will be disastrous for Iran and its 90 million people. They need to come to the table and use this opportunity to change the course of their country for the betterment of its people & Make Iran great again.

With which type of dollar we are losing 500 million per day?