Turning over rocks

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Turning over rocks

Turning over rocks

@RocksOver

He who turns over the most rocks wins. Private investor.

Australia Bergabung Nisan 2021
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
Just quit my job to become a full time private investor. Reached escape velocity in net wealth finally in my mid-40s. That’s it for the corporate life for me. For anyone interested, a bit about my journey…
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
Post of the day for sushi lovers.
Made in Japan 🇯🇵@InvestInJapan

He's got a point but I have a fundamentally different view. The dining experience in Japan, especially Omakase (and other intimate high-end establishments), isn't really just about the food but the relationship you cultivate with the restaurant and the owner-chef who works there. Like aging fine wine, it gets better over time. If you're just trying to get decent sushi, then sure, conveyor belt sushi by all means is a solid choice. But for either people who live or frequent Japan, the richer the experience gets at one place, the more times you go. It's more like what a long-term relationship is to a one-night stand. The head chef, or the "Taisho' will remember when you last came, Over time, he'll remember what you like, what you don't like. Usually, they'll see your name on the reservation list so they know what to prepare. Maybe he has a special sake waiting for you. They'll greet you like an old friend that you haven't seen in ages, they'll know your kids' names, you'll know how his family is doing. A few weeks ago I was taken to an omakase that a friend frequents. He lives abroad, so they were surprised to see him again! Even though I was the guest, I heard the chef whisper to the waitress to remember and place any cutlery on the left side because he saw I was left-handed. One thing they were genuinely panicking about is whether my friend wants different dishes or the same as before - because maybe he just likes eating the same thing every time - but since he lives abroad, maybe he wants something 'different'. At this level, it's also an art form. Forget the fish, that's just one part. The chef had 4 different type of soy sauce he uses for different fish/dishes. He even made us try just the soy sauce by itself, which was freshly opened; it tastes noticeably different because it's been transported from their supplier in a specialised air-tight container and hasn't oxidized. The attention to detail isn't just from this omakase place but also their soy sauce supplier, the knife maker, etc etc. That one sushi is a culmination of millions of small decisions made by these people with a craftsman mentality seeing most won't even bother thinking about. Perhaps this is just a microcosm, but like my friend, there's a place my family goes to often on special occasions. My dad has been going there for the last 47 years! These places have many such customers. You'd think during times like Covid they would suffer, but this place got through without a problem. These 'old friends' just kept showing up, again and again. And the Chefs appreciate this too - theres even restaurants with the policy of "Ichigensan Okotowari" where first time comers are denied without a referral from an existing customer. This relationship and loyalty is also why some places don't raise their prices nearly as much as they should, because they don't want to do that to their long-time customers. So to me, it's not just about the 'eating', but it's the friendship that grows over time and the idea of generations of families growing up going there even as the Chef and his families continue to run the business. The moments you share in that intimate space is priceless. And I find that beautiful, and one of the reasons why dining in Japan can be so different from any other country in the world, bar none. Like the Patek slogan: "You never actually run an omakase. You merely look after it for the next generation" (lmao)

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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
@Divergent7651 Yes, it’s become really noticeable. To the point where I can barely use Opus without hitting limits.
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Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
Weirdly hitting my Claude pro 5x usage limits as of yesterday whereas I never used to. Could just be that I'm doing more work. Is this happening for other people?
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
@respeculator Let’s punish them with more tax! Seriously though, how is this thing still below $8?
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Respeculator
Respeculator@respeculator·
Those nasty companies that never do anything good are... coming to the rescue???! $STO.AX
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
@Alpaca_Capital @RodAlzmann I’ve found Sonnet is sufficient for 90% of what I do and I save Opus for the high value stuff. Agree though - if you use Opus for everything you’ll chew up limits pretty fast.
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Alpaca Capital
Alpaca Capital@Alpaca_Capital·
@RodAlzmann Thanks. Will have to limit my Claude stuff to actual workloads rather than general query and whatnot.
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Alpaca Capital
Alpaca Capital@Alpaca_Capital·
Wowza. Anthropic's update really limits Opus 4.6 use. Doing what was a relatively menial project with some other Q&A on Opus out of habit and just hit 90% session limits.
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Turning over rocks me-retweet
Respeculator
Respeculator@respeculator·
Lot of folks dismissing $WHC.AX as a coal play here as it’s no longer pure thermal (is true).. but a few counter points.. 1. WHC has the highest torque thermal mines as it’s high cost but best quality coal. It’s all NEWC spec unlike others that put a lot of coal into 5500kcal API5 markets - see table below on the spread between these two indices over 2022/23. Today API5 is still <$90/t vs NEWC at >$140/t. The countries looking to LNG-to-Coal switch like Japan Korea and Taiwan are all mostly 6000kcal NEWC coal boilers so it will be that index that will get the bid imo. 2. WHC has torque in that it is net debt and not carrying 20-30% of MCAP in cash that won’t yield anything like many other peers. The deleveraging story will add further rerate to earnings uplift. 3. Whilst the Met side may not look overly attractive here.. it was never going to generate much whilst the BHP price contingent payments remain until April 2027. So whatever Met does you win as you move through to the unencumbered holy land period in 12mths. And if thermal stays bid for long enough to see Met to thermal switching then Blackwater has a boatload of SSCC coals to switch. 4. It’s still the most liquid name and probably has best capital mgmt (active buyback plus dividends) so is insto fav and catches insto flows so gets premium in that regard. 25mtpa x A$80/t margin x 6 (50yr+ diversified mines) is a A$12bn company or a A$15/sh share price. Doesn’t seem absurd to me.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
@respeculator You’re right. That’s a positive. In a real crunch could some of that SE Asia volume get diverted to higher paying buyers? I don’t have a read on how strong their supplier relationships are.
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Respeculator
Respeculator@respeculator·
@RocksOver I am told both refineries take light sweet Tapis crude (from SE Asia).. so not reliant on the medium sour middle eastern crude.. but may wish to check that
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Squad
Squad@lingams·
@RocksOver @Monolith_Cap In your list still Iwaki and RS Tech are at a price we can enter. A few days ago I started a position on RS Tech. What is your take on Iwaki. First time hearing this name . Had a quick glance at it.
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
Santec (6777.JP) was available for a P/E < 10 at times in 2023 and 2025. The disconnect from fundamentals is striking. I rarely come across such anomalies outside of Japan.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
To be fair, WDS has a higher quality long-life asset base - Scarborough should be a multi-decade asset. It also has a bit more direct leverage to LNG pricing and offers full franking credits to Aussie boomers. All that said, I like STO here. Its share price has lagged, the company is better shielded from Australian political risk and it is increasing production just at the right time.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
Last point: Woodside is far less attractive than STO on 2026 production. It looks better on 2027+ numbers as Scarborough ramps up, but still significantly more expensive than STO. At $85 Brent, WDS would be trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5x on my guesstimate of 2027 production, vs 3.6x for STO.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
More on Santos ($STO.AX). In reality I think there’s more upside than suggested below. First reason is that sales are a mix of Brent-linked longer term contracts and spot or short term contracts (roughly 25%) that should be capturing a large LNG premium in a historically tight market. I didn’t factor in the latter.
Turning over rocks@RocksOver

Lots of talk about an Aussie windfall profits tax on oil/gas and possibly coal companies. Let’s assume worst case scenario of 25% levy that has been floated in media. Santos ($STO.AX) still looks pretty attractive even in this dire scenario.

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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
Bottom line: STO still looks cheap after a 30% run this year. It has lagged WDS but is less exposed to a windfall profits tax. Lastly, if you expect Brent to crash back to $65 this is not the idea for you. I’m happy to take the other side.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
This is partly because STO production is guided to rise over 20% this year from Barossa LNG (although teething problems are a risk here), their Pikka project in Alaska coming online, and some smaller optimizations in PNG operations and elsewhere.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
Lots of talk about an Aussie windfall profits tax on oil/gas and possibly coal companies. Let’s assume worst case scenario of 25% levy that has been floated in media. Santos ($STO.AX) still looks pretty attractive even in this dire scenario.
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DaBao
DaBao@DaBao_·
oh yes have I told you guys my favorite city in the world is Hong Kong? I have decided to spend 4/3~4/6 in Hong Kong! If you are interested in meeting up, please let me know.
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Turning over rocks
Turning over rocks@RocksOver·
@respeculator I had an Uber driver yesterday who didn’t know why petrol prices were so high. Completely oblivious.
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Respeculator
Respeculator@respeculator·
The other anecdote I have is that everyone I know that doesn’t have any sort of social media doesn’t even know a fucking war is happening. And 20% of oil production.. “oh is that all”… “I thought they were more”.. every retard is about to work out you can’t print energy..
Respeculator@respeculator

All I had read for the past few weeks is how Trump is either gona win or Taco and oil prices are gona tank… yet all the reputable oil gurus (I get the conflict of interest) are screaming that supply/demand will go $200+ unless conflict resolved. I think I’ll follow the guru’s.. at least for now.. but hoping for a resolution or a taco 🌮 I’m pretty hungry

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