Monolith Capital

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Monolith Capital

Monolith Capital

@Monolith_Cap

Looking for niche market leaders with long investment runways. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

Katılım Ocak 2021
236 Takip Edilen7.7K Takipçiler
マゼラン
マゼラン@fun00555129·
市場のテーマ株は防衛⇒光電融合へ
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
@aschmitt Is Santec part of any discussions? The company is trying very hard to get in.
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Andrew Schmitt
Andrew Schmitt@aschmitt·
#1 takeaway from 50+ meetings at OFC is that the industry is massively underweighting the downstream imapct of a scenario where Nvidia CPO has organic commercial success.
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
Looks like the stable genius is doing everything he can to improve the fortunes of Okano Valve Manufacturing (6492.JP). Who knows, maybe the planet will later say "THANK YOU, MR. PRESIDENT" for speedrunning the nuclear restarts.
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Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
This is sound advice. You constantly need to think about your capital's opportunity cost. Stocks that fall 75%+ take 5 years to reach the bottom and another 5 to recover, assuming they're the lucky 33% that ever do. Based on this excellent research on drawdowns by Mauboussin and Callahan: morganstanley.com/im/publication…
Simeon Research@SimeonResearch_

The buy-and-hold mantra is dangerous, the way I see it applied by many here. I think Buffett advice has been greatly misunderstood and can do more damage than good if taken out of proper context. At it's core it encourages you to buy good companies and that is very fair and good practical advice, depending on your strategy (others like a more catalyst driven style which is also fine). But buying companies and then when the thesis/data is drastically changing and you are not reacting because you need hold long term for some reason as if the issue will fix itself is not a viable strategy, at least in my experience. If you observe Buffett’s portfolio and generally in investors that have great skill you will see that turnover is rather high, switching around until a winner is located and that one winner makes the most returns. (And again many times it’s in your best interest to trim the winner as the valuation can run way past for what is feasible). Pay attention to what they do not what they preach… A counter argument I see very often to this is that $AAPL lost 80% of its market cap 5 times Or $TSLA dropped x this many times and came back. Valid but you are cherry picking the exception not the norm, these are mega winners which to find and hold is insanely difficult and very rare and making them as if this is the usual case is not probable. For every Apple or Tesla, there are thousands of businesses that never recovered nor will. Nothing is guaranteed no CAGR or return, investing is inherently a very dynamic game. Stubbornness and ego have no place here (been there done that) Everything changes, and we must adapt and improve constantly. So many bets will not work out. But some of them will massively Don’t be afraid to sell when you are wrong, when data changes, or when the opportunity cost is way too high. Follow the thesis, not your ego! Open to debate as always, no view of mine is meant to stay unchallenged, this is how we grow. Why I am putting effort to write these snippets without using ai (I make typos I know!) to promote discussion and critical thinking is beyond me should just pump shitcos and get 10x the views…. 😂

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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
Macro noise aside, I don't see good fundamental reasons for the selloff in Santec (6777.JP) this week. If anything, GTC and OFC 2026 announcements signal an improving outlook for the company. The entire optical supply chain is gearing up for a generational production ramp. Everyone up and down the stack is screaming about Bajillion TAM figures and output constraints. Santec must be maximizing the manufacturing capacity of its optical components and test instruments, and it will be golden. The multiples are high, but so is the earnings growth I see in the next three years. I think the fair value today is around ¥30,000 per share, and my assumptions will likely prove conservative. Santec’s management just keeps delivering.
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst

**Incrimental** opinion based on OFC so far. For example, Nvidia showed nothing new so neutral even though recent ISSCC presentation amazing. Full OFC coverage will take 2-3 weeks. So much stuff.

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BullsEye
BullsEye@eyesigh558·
@Monolith_Cap Which name is most actionable on this pullback? 6777?
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
"You're gonna eat lightning, and you're gonna crap thunder."
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Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
@cloud377033 Unclear to me, looks like it is selling off on the macro noise. If anything, the presentations yesterday at GTC and OFC signaled that the demand for Santec’s optical instruments and components is only gathering steam.
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
Aerotech just published the full PICAlign spec page ahead of the OFC 2026 showcase. This is the CPO active alignment system built with Santec (6777.JP) and SENKO Advanced Components. What stands out: sub-0.1 dB of theoretical optimum, simultaneous multichannel monitoring, and custom objective functions that let manufacturers hard-code their production workflows around the platform. Santec's optical power meters and light sources provide a real-time feedback signal driving the entire alignment loop. This is a fully fleshed-out production tool, not just a nice demo anymore. aerotech.com/product/picali…
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Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
@Maxxl94 I don't think so. The core business is mature, and its target markets will likely shrink in the long run as economies digitize. I expect the upside will come from (1) aggressive shareholder returns + (2) new business ventures, like printed electronics.
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Karl
Karl@Maxxl94·
@Monolith_Cap is there a specific reason volume could grow? At first glance, it reminds me of Koening & Bauer with better balanced sheet...
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
Komori (6349.JP) is very cheap. 50% of market cap is net cash, EV/EBIT = 4. For this price, you are getting a piece of the global banknote-printing duopoly with enormous entry barriers and extreme customer stickiness. Komori delivered more than 200 money-printing presses to 38 countries, including the US Bureau of Engraving and Printing, the Bank of England, Banque de France, Banca d'Italia, and central banks across Southeast Asia. There is also a growth angle to this story: Komori is trying to break into semiconductor packaging. At SEMICON West 2025, the company showcased gravure offset printing technology, which took over a decade to develop. The tech appears real, but there is zero commercial traction so far. Consider it a bonus science project with a positively skewed payoff distribution. Komori is one of the cheapest businesses I analyzed, but it doesn’t yet meet my growth criterion. I put it on a watchlist.
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap

I took a big position in Togami Electric Manufacturing (6643.JP). Togami holds a deeply entrenched position as a supplier of mission-critical electrical distribution equipment to three regional utility networks (Kansai, Chubu, and Kyushu) and industrial customers in Japan. Its relationships are protected by specification-driven switching costs, making vendor displacement practically impossible. The structural demand drivers are the strongest in the company’s history. The grid modernization mandates, renewable integration requirements, data center electricity demand, and Takaichi’s record fiscal budget create powerful revenue tailwinds. More investors will recognize the opportunity as sales accelerate, margins expand, and FCF builds up in the next three years. I’m banking on management to increase dividends and continue share buybacks. P/E of 9-10 (ex-cash) and an EV/EBITDA of 5 is too cheap for an infrastructure growth stock. I believe the downside is minimal at the current price level. Very asymmetric opportunity.

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CW
CW@smolblackdoge·
@Monolith_Cap Do you have a write up on Togami somewhere?
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
I sold Espec (6859.JP) and put the proceeds in Togami Electric Manufacturing (6643.JP). I still think Espec could be a good investment. However, Togami today is better in every way: stronger fundamentals, clearer growth visibility, higher competitive barriers, and a lower valuation with little downside. This is my portfolio after the changes. I’m concentrating capital in the highest-conviction ideas.
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Irrational Analysis
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst·
I have so much coverage planned. 50+ technical papers and the **entirety** of **both** expo halls. Scheduled to meet few people but fair warning I might cancel on you (or reduce to 5-10 min chat) if I end up behind on my 100% crawl of expo floors.
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Monolith Capital retweetledi
Santec Corporation
Santec Corporation@santec_corp·
Redefining optical measurement. The NEW SPA-200 Swept Photonics Analyzer — 5 µm resolution, 250 m range, built for next-gen photonics. Live demo at #OFC2026, Booth #1029 | Mar 17–19, Los Angeles. Don't miss it! #OFDR #Santec #Photonics
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
@JapanDeepValue1 I don't rule out large drawdowns along the way - I had a few bad ones before. But I'm confident in the management teams and businesses that I invested in. May will be a good time to reduce risks, following the earnings results.
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Japan Deep Value
Japan Deep Value@JapanDeepValue1·
@Monolith_Cap Nice reruns but ytd screenshots in March is bad juju. Touch some grass or take some risk off
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Monolith Capital
Monolith Capital@Monolith_Cap·
How is the situation, boys and girls? Ya’ll stay safe out there. Santec (6777.JP), FUSO Chemical (4368.JP), Okano Valve Manufacturing (6492.JP), Togami Electric Manufacturing (6643.JP), Espec (6859.JP).
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