The Zeno Report

14 companies. The Trillion club. Textbook says a company deserves its valuation based on 4 things: Revenue growth. Earnings power. Competitive moat. Reasonable valuation. $TSLA fails all 4. ↳ Revenue down 2.9% in 2025 ↳ EPS down 47% YoY ↳ P/E near 400. Forward P/E ~185. ↳ BYD now outsells in global BEVs. It's not a tech company. It's a car company priced like it owns the future. The stock is priced like robotaxis and Optimus are already proven businesses, and like xAI and SpaceX optionality somehow belongs inside $TSLA’s multiple. The moment SpaceX goes public on its own, the market has to separate Tesla’s income statement from the Musk empire story. 13 companies built their way into the club. Tesla vibed its way in. "But Robotaxis" Zero autonomous miles logged in California six years straight. Launched small pilot in Austin (June 2025), expanded to Dallas and Houston (April 2026), but only 42 registered vehicles across Texas. Miami still pending. What's running is a tiny unsupervised fleet in geofenced zones that relies heavily on remote operators for edge cases. "But Optimus" Promised 10,000 units by end of 2025. Built a few hundred. None doing useful work. Program head gone. Not available for purchase. No pre-orders. No waitlist. Consumer sales target: end of 2027 per Musk himself. None of this exists in the income statement yet. Textbook calls that speculation not valuation. When SpaceX goes public, the market asks one question: What is $TSLA worth without the story?

@Spybef0rey0ubuy Yeah horrible position here everyone thought he will cut rates as the current Admin wants it but now the conditions are painting a very different picture for him.

@ZenoReport He's in a tough position especially with the oil war raising inflation

Trump's Fed pick is already boxed in on rates: Kevin Warsh just took over as Fed Chair after the Senate confirmed him 54–45. Trump picked him partly because he signaled openness to rate cuts. The problem is the inflation environment doesn't cooperate with that mandate. Warsh has also vowed to act independently, which puts him on a collision course with the White House the moment data forces his hand. He inherited a Fed where the political ask and the economic reality point in opposite directions. That gap is the real rate risk markets haven't priced.

I hope so too. More than US all those 3rd world countries are being affected in a worse way. People lining up for gas with lines longer than a kilometer which is horrible. They might enter into a recession if oil doesn’t start flowing hence the deal is being hurried as they are getting impatient.

@ZenoReport Yikes… that’s a pretty big risks to the markets. Really hope that the war ends soon and oil shipping can begin to normalize again 🙏🏼

China's demand pullback is masking the true oil price shock: Since the Iran war began, China slashed crude imports by roughly 3 million barrels per day. That missing demand is absorbing most of the Hormuz supply disruption. JPMorgan estimates China's pullback explains 74% of the global import decline, keeping crude up only 30% instead of the feared $200-plus scenario. US gasoline is already about $1.50 higher per gallon than before the war. When China stops drawing down reserves and returns to normal buying, that deferred demand hits a market where supply is still constrained. The delayed price shock is the risk markets are not pricing.

I totally agree with you. Also the risk of US delisting them is always there. Apart from their own government always changing policies which makes it so unpredictable. I was attracted to it because they are like the Amazon of China alongside a few others. Huge cash flow and great business overall. As China’s consumer grows stronger and their buying power increases these companies will benefit from that tailwind is my thesis. Will be holding it for a year at least.

No, I lived in Hong Kong for 4 years and learned too much about China and Chinese stocks to feel comfortable enough to invest in them. There’s definitely money to be made there, but I just don’t have a good way of assessing the geopolitical risks. Plus one shift in Chinese government policy can easily take down stocks, which happened to their gaming industry a few years ago. What attracts you to $JD?

The Pentagon's China list is creating forced-selling pressure on US funds: The Pentagon added Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD to its official list of Chinese military companies. The list now holds 188 companies. The listing itself is not a sanctions order and does not automatically ban US investment. But several US states already tie their pension fund rules to exactly these DoD lists, which can trigger mandatory divestment. Markets remember what happened in 2020, when DoD listings preceded Treasury investment bans and forced visible selling by index funds. The 1260H list is a compliance signal that moves money before any formal ban arrives.

@MatthewSpositi I am just holding a few which I believe can perform well. $JD i hold it because of their huge cash flow and their fundamentals are good as a business. As china’s consumer grows stronger and their buying power increases these company will profit.

@ZenoReport I’m not holding any Chinese stock at the moment. I never really bought into the China craze years ago, which has mostly subsided now.

@Stealthct_Storm I have no idea. That’s what it’s being classified as for support Chinese Defense just like many US tech companies support US defense and get military contracts. From lending/offering computing and software to latest AI models.

@ZenoReport Alibaba is a military company?

@JamesAnderson88 Yeah you are right but Iran has a railway which leads to China so ending their support fully isn’t an option lots of ways and too many borders to monitor.

@ZenoReport The U.S. is trying to cut Iran off at the source, which is China. Without Chinese backing the Iran War would probably already be over.

US sanctions are expanding compliance risk for China supply chains: The US just sanctioned nine entities and individuals tied to Iran weapons procurement, most of them based in Hong Kong or mainland China. These aren't just geopolitical targets. Any US company whose suppliers or trading partners overlap with these newly blocked entities must now screen and cut ties immediately. The 50% ownership rule means the risk spreads silently through corporate structures. Banks clearing dollars for these networks face the same exposure. Companies with opaque Hong Kong intermediaries in their supply chains now carry real legal liability, not just reputational risk.

@JamesAnderson88 Yep I agree with you as well. All depends on the economy in the end. A deal is to be signed soon so lets see but more importantly the contents of the agreement is what will matter the most.

@ZenoReport It’s a tough environment for sure, but I think with an uptick in manufacturing and with oil prices declining after the Iran War ends, Warsh will have some justification for cutting rates. If the war doesn’t end soon though… he’ll probably have to hold.

@JamesAnderson88 I will check out what she said. Thanks for your insight!

@ZenoReport Just checked it out! Good analysis. I like Cathie Woods’ view on Kevin Warsh being able to cut rates if the war ends soon.

Iran says a deal has “never been closer” The markets are pumping! 🚀🤝🟢

@InvestJourneyX It was pretty good watched the US vs Paraguay match was amazing.

@ZenoReport Thanks mate, hopefully that will be the case 🤓 how was your day?

-0.32% today. The process still counts on red days. Good night legends 🤝

@longriverCM Yep you should.

@ZenoReport Well said! I need to research on how do end users (designers) handle their work cases now. :)

Adobe $ADBE just became one of the most interested and debatable trades in tech, and on X, of course. I checked another thing just to understand the market perception. 13F. Renaissance Technologies AQR Capital Management Harris Associates (Bill Nygren, One of my favorite ones to read and follow) Paul Tudor Jones, Joel Greenblatt, Jeremy Grantham All these big names added Adobe last quarter. Different strategies, Different time horizons, but Same direction. This is rare. Because these firms don’t agree on much. Renaissance is pure systematic signal AQR is factor + valuation discipline Harris is deep value / compounding quality Tudor Jones is macro + momentum Greenblatt is earnings yield / magic formula discipline Grantham is long-cycle mean reversion And yet they’re all leaning into the same name. Right now, Adobe is still sitting in a weird narrative gap: AI disruption fear is valid. Executive departure raises concerns. But underneath that, subscription cash flows remain highly durable. Switching costs are still extreme. AI is more augmentation than replacement (so far) Their margins remain structurally high vs most of software. I feel good about my position. Thanks to pre-market and after-market panic selling. :)

@MatthewSpositi It is..

@ZenoReport Man sounds like such a mess to have to deal with

@biscuitkhan9914 @QualCompounders Yes before AI when you needed to do some edits from videos to images you needed to get Adobe or something similar at latest the free tier to get the job done. I did too.

@ZenoReport @QualCompounders Were these regular consumers ever paying for adobe?

Is $ADBE a value trap and the next $PYPL or the most misunderstood stock in the market?

@MatthewSpositi Yeah I honestly have stopped monitoring this deal weeks ago too much noise which just ruins the mind. No useful information at all.

@ZenoReport Yeah we’ll have to wait and see for now. I doubt a deal will happen, it’s just them trying to hype the markets again. Could be wrong, but it’s happened so many times now it’s crazy

What a great way to end the week, with a green day and a small dividend payment from $PFE. Did y’all enjoy the $SPCX IPO?

@JamesAnderson88 I wrote a post about interest rates today do check it out if possible. Currently Warsh in under extreme pressure for rates so it’s likely he holds or if foced by economic conditions then hikes it.

@ZenoReport Let’s see. The USA has been reindustrializing and is currently experiencing large growth in manufacturing again. With lower interest rates potentially coming too, we may see a booming economy by Q4.

@sweatystartup Wow…

My predictions for the rest of 2026: SpaceX - down 70% Dow - down 25% NASDAQ - down 35%

@MatthewSpositi Let’s see how’s Monday like also if we get a deal over the weekend

@ZenoReport It was awesome man, but yeah a lot of people were saying that, I honestly didn’t think that would happen. Man I couldn’t agree more, investing in good businesses is a great way to make money in the markets.

At times even a great company with great financial just keeps falling due to investors not seeing them as a top competitor in the future. Maybe they will be a top competitor but the consumer’s perspective towards them changes. Like PayPal with all cashapp and applecash and other payment platform you really can’t envision that they will be as meaningful in the future.

I sold all of my $ADBE for a 30% loss.

Why are they complaining now? He had 800B a few days ago that amount of wealth is no different from 1.1T right now just another milestone so what’s the point? Also most of his wealth are in stocks which can’t be taxed in a capitalist economy. Unless he sells and cashes it out.. i am pretty sure they know the law.

I’m seeing a lot of politicians complain about Elon Musk being a trillionaire now. But I’m seeing none of them talking about him creating over 4000 millionaires when SpaceX IPO today. Yes, those 4000 people put in a lot of work but without him, they likely wouldn’t be where they are today.

Looks like after weeks of concentrated tech rally now all the other sectors are getting the attention they deserve. In tech even companies operating in losses are having Trillion dollar IPOs whereas in other sectors despite having Billions in profits those businesses aren’t interested enough for retail. Weird times. SpaceX had around $4 billion dollar in losses in last year and maybe more this year. OpenAI and Anthropic both operating in losses are expected to have trillion dollar IPOs as well. Where should the line of valuation be drawn?

Stocks reversed SpaceX IPO delay-led dip as MoU has “never been closer” to signature. • S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.43%, Dow +0.6% — on UMich/oil relief • STOXX 50 +0.23% — on inline DE/FR/ES CPI vs weak UK GDP/IP/Trade • Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.7% — on talk & CN Loans Next: • US/EU IP, CA HS/Sales, CH PPI/SECO Jun 15 • US Empire/NAHB, EU/SK/IT Trade Jun 15 Tape was messy. Space-related stocks dipped hard first because SpaceX IPO trading got delayed in Nasdaq auction for 2+ hours after the bell. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) crashed -32%, while other companies which supposed to benefit from IPO followed the selloff: $LUNR -13%, $RKLB & $SATS -11%. Basically charts looked rugged before trading even existed. Then SPCX finally went live, ripped above +20%, and the market stopped treating the IPO delay like some disaster. Though, it didn’t really limit the space-related equities riskoff. Bigger stock rescue came from macro + oil + geopolitics. UMich Sentiment beat. Consumer expectations beat. 1Y and 5Y inflation expectations cooled. So after yesterday’s hot PPI + weak jobs mix, markets finally got something they could actually buy. At the same time, oil dumped -2.5% on peace talks. That’s the real fuel behind the equity bid. The market is pricing the Islamabad MoU as real de-escalation, especially after Araghchi said the framework has “never been closer” to signature. So equities are saying: “Buy the dip.” $AMD +4.7%, $TSLA +1.8%. Unfortunately, ain’t a full risk-on yet. Amazon & Micron still -1.2%. It’s a selective re-risk after the SpaceX IPO chaos got absorbed and oil kept bleeding. Funny part? People who bought SPCE thinking it was the SpaceX trade got nuked, while the actual SPCX IPO ripped. That’s basically today’s market in one sentence. Confusion first. Relief later. Still, the setup is fragile. Stocks are green because the market believes the deal story survives the weekend. Oil is down because the market believes Hormuz risk is fading. But geopolitics is still hot. - Hormuz is unstable. - Hezbollah denies truce. So yeah, stocks recovered. But if this “final text” deal breaks again, does this equity bid finally get smoked?