David del Val

One big point amid all the headlines: I was texting with press secretary Karoline Leavitt during the event and she confirms that the 34 percent tariff on China is ON TOP of the previous 20 percent. So that means the rate on China will be *54* percent when these tariffs take effect.

@JAL_1966 @MAECgob @CancilleriaCol @minturgob @MincomercioCo @Turespana_ @ICEX_ Embajador, no promocione ud. a la empresa que peor representa a la marca España, por Dios. La compañía que el regulador aéreo presenta como la más impuntual y que a más pasajeros maltrata. Todo un récord teniendo en cuenta su pequeño tamaño seguridadaerea.gob.es/sites/default/…

Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas 🇪🇸cumple dos años en Colombia, conectando Madrid, Bogotá y Cartagena de Indias. Buenas perspectivas de lograr la frecuencia diaria en 2024/2025. Hoy lo hemos celebrado juntos. ¡Muchas felicidades! @MAECgob @CancilleriaCol @minturgob @MincomercioCo

@dumek_turbay Alcalde, no se asocie ud. con piratas. Cartagena tiene un pasado repeliéndoles. Plus Ultra es la aerolínea que más maltrata a los pasajeros. No lo digo yo, lo asevera el informe del regulador aéreo español. La compañía con más quejas de largo. seguridadaerea.gob.es/sites/default/…

La conectividad aérea con #Cartagena ¡AVANZA! Este lunes trabajamos para concretar una cuarta frecuencia de la ruta Cartagena - Madrid, con Plus Ultra Líneas Aéreas, de España. Como parte de la agenda Misión Madrid - Cartagena 500 años, sostuvimos una importante reunión con el presidente de esta aerolínea, Julio Martínez Sola, para ratificar nuestro plan estratégico en pro de la conectividad de La Heroica con la capital ibérica.

A little disappointed that Bloomberg and John Authers retell this myth ignoring the ECB's depo cuts in 2014, 15 and 19 as well as the additional QE in that period... but it is probably too nice a story not to tell.

In a terrible take that makes numerous easily avoidable mistakes, @TheEconomist says: "the ICC should prosecute only when states are 'unwilling or unable to do so genuinely'. Israel is a democracy with an independent judiciary." This is legally & factually incorrect. Short 🧵👇

I’m puzzled by all the fretting about China trade shock 2.0. First, a subsidy war in EVs and batteries is actually a good thing since there is no global carbon tax. Second, we are no longer in hyperglobalization. Importing countries are free to respond. Remember the Japanese trade shock of the 1980s? US and Europe negotiated VERs with Japan, and everyone did fine. As long as governments don’t go crazy and treat this as real war, lots of solutions are possible. And we’ll get the climate benefits on top.

@lancearmstrong @DannyDuncan69 Lance, your unethical approach to sports and life was never just sheer competitiveness. It was a toxic mentality that did not bring any victories for you or the sport.

I’m impressed with this generation of cyclists. In many ways, they are more talented. But they do not compete like we did. Hugs and high fives? This would have been totally foreign to me. (via @DannyDuncan69)

@nachoalvarez_ Felicidades por tu valentía y gracias por tanto (y tan buen) trabajo estos años. Un fuerte abrazo!

Agradezco la confianza que ⁦ @Yolanda_Diaz_⁩ deposita en mí, pero no puedo aceptar ser ministro del Gobierno si la dirección de mi organización no lo aprueba. En mi cultura política no es concebible aceptar un cargo al margen de la organización de la que uno forma parte.

@JMAafi @Afi_es @Afi_Research Un último empujoncito de los BBCC para doblegar definitivamente la inflación ahora que las turbulencias financieras se han disipado... Y un poquito más cerca de que el tropiezo del ciclo termine en caída 😅

@Afi_es @Afi_Research Con riesgos de peor escenario (por inflación, por tipos, por deterioro cíclico y por su traslación a mercados). El tiempo dirá.

La resaca de #Fed, #BCE, #BoE, #SNB reintroduce volatilidad (= más incertidumbre) en las curvas de tipos, y -con cierto retraso- erosiona la apuesta global por un #soft_landing, reflejada en renta variable, crédito corporativo, etc. La pendiente 2-10 años USA vuelve a -100 pb.

So it turns out that CS AT1 bonds absorption mechanism always was a Principal Write Down subject to supervisory judgement, but we chose to simplify all CoCos as just "senior to equity"... ah, the perks of oversimplified nuanced stuff!

How can AT1 bonds be zero'd when they're more senior than equity which is getting paid 2bn, you ask? Because bondholders agreed they could be. Here's the section in the $CS 9.75% AT1 prospectus (don't worry if you weren't aware, half the holders prob haven't read this either):

4) The effect though differs greatly by sector: - It's greater in those sectors that are capital-light and knowledge-intensive, especially those where 🇨🇳 does not lead. - It's even negative in capital-intensive sectors where it's all about "throwing money" and 🇨🇳 is the 🌏 leader

3) Despite that higher cost, given the international tech race, and especially Chinese hawkish military stance, patents grow because there is even more domestic R&D (there's some sort of import substitution on patents).

1) A primer on the cost of deglobalization. A Chinese study confirms the effects we would expect from US sanctions on Chinese innovation. A little thread 🧵 scmp.com/news/china/sci…

@BarkowConsult @RafaelMentges @LHSummers you should ask Barkow's AI Twitter-management company for a quote. They sure won't risk oversimplifying stuff 🤪

@RafaelMentges @_delVal banks take money and lend, maturity mismatch is a treasury decision and of course involves risk which can be mitigated via hedging

Borrowing short-term and investing long-term is what banks are usually doing. Not sure I get his point 🤔

@BarkowConsult @RafaelMentges

En la presentación del informe sobre política industrial del @FuturePolicyLab Muy pertinente el día que la comisión plantea relajar las exigencias sobre ayudas de Estado... It's now or never