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Posting a theory. If the 2021 cycle resembles 2013 for a “double pump” move and the adoption of web3/meta verse begins to make crypto mainstream, then we should see multiple bear markets throughout the months and years defined by the 50/200d crosses.

We worked with @Ginkgo to connect GPT-5 to an autonomous lab, so it could propose experiments, run them at scale, learn from the results, and decide what to try next. That closed loop brought protein production cost down by 40%.

Anthropic just took a big swipe at OpenAI's decision to put ads in ChatGPT. Anthropic is airing ads mocking ChatGPT ads during the Super Bowl, and they're hilarious 😅 Anthropic is also committing to no ads in Claude theverge.com/ai-artificial-…

At Andreessen Horowitz, we just raised over $15B. With these new funds including American Dynamism ($1.176B), Apps ($1.7B), Bio + Health ($700M), Infrastructure ($1.7B), Growth ($6.75B), and other venture strategies ($3B), we raised over 18% of all venture capital dollars allocated in the United States in 2025. Why did we raise the money and how do we plan to invest it? Read more from Ben Horowitz: a16z.news/p/we-raised-15…

@BobLoukas So you’re saying there’s a chance

Spent the last 4 months with a team training an AI model off my last 10 yrs of work. Still a LOT of tweaking and correcting to do, but taking shape. I asked it - "Give me the probability that bitcoin has topped or not for the 4 year cycle on the following assumptions. We're on Month 38 currently and the high is currently the month 35 high. This is week 7 of the weekly cycle." Answer- Given your assumptions, here’s how I’d probability‑weight the 4‑year cycle right now, strictly through a cycle‑based lens, not prediction. We’ll anchor everything to what you specified: Month 38 of the 4‑year cycle Cycle high still Month 35 Weekly cycle currently Week 7 BASE ASSUMPTIONS (YOUR FRAMEWORK) 4-year cycle month: 38 (beyond all prior tops) Current cycle high: Month 35 Weekly cycle: Week 7 (early, but vulnerable) No confirmed expansion to new highs 🔴 SCENARIO 1: 4‑YEAR CYCLE HAS TOPPED Probability: ~55% Why this is the base case All prior cycles topped around Month 34–35 We are 3 months past that window with no higher high Month 35 acting as the high is classic late‑cycle behavior Week 7 is exactly where weekly cycles fail when the larger cycle is over This scenario assumes: Weekly cycle becomes left‑translated Rallies are counter‑trend The next daily/weekly breakdown confirms the post‑top phase This is the highest‑probability outcome given time + structure. 🟠 SCENARIO 2: EXTENDED TOP / DISTRIBUTION Probability: ~30% This is the “Bitcoin does what it often does — frustrates everyone” outcome. Characteristics: Month 35 remains the marginal high for now Price chops in a wide range for weeks/months Weekly cycles are mixed, not cleanly bullish or bearish Sentiment oscillates between hope and fear This still does NOT invalidate the top thesis — it just delays resolution. Important: This scenario often feels bullish, but usually resolves down, not up. 🟢 SCENARIO 3: 4‑YEAR CYCLE STILL ALIVE (NEW HIGHS) Probability: ~15% This is the low‑probability but non‑zero case. What would need to happen: Price decisively exceeds the Month 35 high Weekly cycle extends into Weeks 10–14 Expansion is impulsive, not grinding Time “stretch” is justified by structure At Month 38, the market needs to earn this outcome. Time alone no longer supports it. PROBABILITY SUMMARY 4-year top already in: 55% Extended distribution/top: 30% Cycle still bullish (new highs): 15% Risk Interpretation (This Matters Most) Even if you combine Scenarios 2 + 3 (the “not fully topped” cases), you still get: 85% probability that upside is limited, slow, or deceptive Asymmetric risk skewed to the downside That’s why treating this as “topped until proven otherwise” is not aggressive — it’s probabilistic discipline. One final Bob‑style takeaway At Month 38 + Week 7, the market doesn’t need a crash to be dangerous. It only needs to fail quietly. And those are the environments where most damage gets done.

New The Pie Safe Supercharger: Deary, ID (4 stalls) tesla.com/findus?locatio… Learn more about Supercharger for Business: tesla.com/supercharger-f…

@hayesdev_ Thanks for sharing my video. Follow @avthar for more videos like this on Claude Code and AI coding. Also on Youtube: youtu.be/aQvpqlSiUIQ

who keeps making these 😭😭😭

Major cheat code for life: Become brutally honest with yourself. About your habits. Your effort. Your excuses. Your blind spots. Self-honesty is uncomfortable, but it'll save you years of wasted time. You can’t fix what you keep lying about.

After you get married, you’re going to meet ‘better’ people than your spouse. You’re going to meet more good-looking people; kinder and more romantic people; more intelligent and funny people. You will meet people who have in abundance what your partner lacks. The mushy and romanticized idea that your partner will be everything to you, and will satisfy all your needs and wants is idolatry. Contentment in marriage is a virtue not often spoken about. You must wake up every day appreciating everything your partner is to you, everything they have, their beauty and the things that made you marry them because if you focus on everything they don’t do well, you’ll always meet better people. Protect your heart! See their best part, and always remember that your commitment to marry is more of a duty than it is of mushy feelings. You have to stay committed even on the days you feel your spouse is no longer the best fit for you… -Buchi

Brian Armstrong's original Coinbase pitch (2012) Listen closely and you can hear Paul Graham giving pointers on the storytelling

This is next level vibe coding. Google new IDE Antigravity is incredible when you combine Nano Banana Pro for layout and Gemini 3.0 Pro for coding. Process: - Antigravity creates the layout design and plan - You review it and provide feedback - Antigravity builds the webpage and creates relevant assets - Antigavity agent also test the webpage.

@Chilearmy123 Basically

POV: You're dating a Bitcoiner

Kudos to @AnthropicAI for a killer registry of Claude use cases. If you're struggling for inspiration for what to do with an LLM (any LLM) this is a great set of scenarios to sift through. claude.com/resources/use-…

Apple JUST quietly announced something that’s a lot BIGGER than it looks: "the Mini Apps Partner Program" Apple is admitting that the future of software is embedded, lightweight, vertical mini-apps distributed inside bigger app For founders who want to make $$ building apps: 1. Apple just legitimized the “superapp” model for the West. China has WeChat mini-programs. India has PhonePe Switch. The West has… nothing. Apple just opened the door. You can now run HTML/JS mini-apps inside a native host and earn 85% on qualifying purchases. That’s Apple-sanctioned platform piggybacking. 2. Distribution arbitrage becomes real again. You don’t need to convince users to download your app. Just partner with a host app and drop in a mini-app. This is a cheat code for early traction. Think: travel apps hosting niche tools, fitness apps hosting mini workouts, marketplaces hosting micro-utilities. 3. Apple is creating a new economy layer: “embedded SaaS.” Imagine: CRM mini-apps inside vertical tools. Math solver mini-apps inside education apps. Calendar mini-apps inside productivity apps. The TAM for tools that don’t need standalone installs just went vertical. 4. Developers get an 85% revenue share. This is Apple basically saying: “We want this ecosystem to grow, and we’re willing to cut our take rate.” When Apple lowers its cut, I pay attention because they see a platform shift coming. 5. AI makes this 10× more important. LLM-powered micro-apps (calculators, planners, agents, coaches, niche utilities) are tiny by design. They’re perfect mini-apps. Apple just created infrastructure for AI-native micro utilities to live inside bigger apps with built-in commerce. 6. Host apps become new “distribution landlords.” If you own an app with traffic, you become a platform. You can host mini-apps, take a cut, and build a developer ecosystem around you. It’s a new monetization model for existing apps with audiences. 7. This unlocks a wave of second-order opportunities. - Agencies helping apps become mini-app hosts - Mini-app dev shops - “Shopify for mini-apps” toolkits - Mini-app marketplaces - Analytics for mini-app performance - Discovery engines for mini-apps - I'll be dropping mini app ideas on @ideabrowser and @startupideaspod TLDR; Apple just turned every high-traffic app into a potential superapp and every indie developer into a potential platform partner. The App Store is becoming modular, composable, and layered. The next decade of consumer apps will look less like standalone products and more like ecosystems stitched together with mini-apps. This is quietly one of the biggest distribution unlocks in years.

"Every time you hesitate, someone less talented takes your spot." The world rewards action, not potential.

Introducing Cursor 2.0. Our first coding model and the best way to code with agents.