Mathew Casey

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Mathew Casey

Mathew Casey

@matcasey

Founder - Political Risk firm Pozières Consulting. Copenhagen/Singapore with an 🇦🇺 accent. I’ve got no wares to sell but plenty of bad takes & trade mistakes.

Bergabung Mart 2009
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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
@GestaltU At some point the bigger rips will come from fading the taco. Could lose a lot of fingers between now & then though.
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Adam Butler
Adam Butler@GestaltU·
Now everyone is front running the Monday morning pivot. Comical / pathetic state of affairs.
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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
The lead-up to Russia’s invasion, where I was constantly told it was a 0% chance of happening, I was reminded on John Nixon’s excellent book about interrogating Saddam & the mistakes US analysts made in interpreting him. Im getting the same vibes here after these Islamabad talks.
Mathew Casey tweet media
Mathew Casey@matcasey

Excellent article by @AlexGabuev reminds me of the John Nixon book about interrogating Saddam & how wrong US analysts were about Saddams worldview & underlying assumptions. Those giving 0% chance of Russian invasion should consider the worldview of the narrow group guiding policy

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
It’s insane but you now honestly have to be worried about this if you’re trading this bounce.
Javed Hassan@javedhassan

So, a couple of the boys have been texting me: “Why the hell would Trump drop the Hormuz blockade bomb on a Sunday? It’ll send oil screaming past $120, maybe $130 if the algos really panic. Makes zero sense if you actually want cheaper barrels.” But it makes perfect sense. Beautiful, even. See, Tokyo and Hong Kong are already humming by the time the East Coast is still nursing its coffee. Those futures pits—Dow, S&P, the whole equity complex, plus Brent and WTI on the screens—never really sleep. You’ve got fourteen, fifteen hours of runway before the New York bell. Plenty of time for the right hands to lean in: long the indices in Hong Kong, short the crude in Tokyo, riding the fear wave as the blockade tweet lights up every terminal from Singapore to Sydney. Then, right on cue, before the U.S. opens, comes the pivot. Something about “there’s regime change in Tehran,” “we can do business,” “Talks were Good,” the usual art-of-the-deal baloney. Markets whip around like they’ve been Tasered. Oil gives back the spike, stocks rip higher. The boys in Asia unwind clean, pocket the spread. A few hundred million, maybe more, conjured out of thin air on the back of one perfectly timed Sunday morning post. Not bad for a morning’s work. The Street’s been running these kinds of games for decades: information, timing, leverage. Just never quite so… presidential!!

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
Nico gets it.
Nico@NicoAIQ

@donnelly_brent @TheMichaelEvery The LARPers not so cleverly imply it’s always “part of the plan” that never existed bc they don’t actually form a coherent thesis but rather provide open ended ideas for social media clickbait.

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
Iranian demands that any agreement be ratified by Congress makes sense given what happened with JCPOA but it’s a massive barrier, not least b/c of a dysfunctional Congress but also b/c then everyone could read & scrutinize the text of the deal, that’ll be bad for Trump/Vance.
Ali Hashem علي هاشم@Alihashem

عن المفاوضات في باكستان ومساراتها: 📌 الإطار العام للتفاوض تبلور بشكل كبير ولكن الشيطان يكمن دوما في التفاصيل. اتفاق الإطار وسيلة لتنظيم الصراع وإطالة أمد وقف إطلاق النار ريثما يتم التوصل إلى تسويات حقيقية. 📌 اللقاء بين قاليباف و جاي دي فانس كان وديا وعكس وجود ارضية مبنية من خلال تواصل سابق. 📌 مسألة لبنان ووقف اطلاق النار ما زالت القضية العالقة إلى جانب مضيق هرمز. 📌 يريد الإيرانيون تثبيت السيادة على المضيق كضمانة لتنفيذ أي اتفاق مستقبلي. 📌 يرغب الإيرانيون في إضافة الصين وروسيا إلى آلية تطبيق الاتفاق، بما في ذلك اي توافقات حول قضايا أخرى مرتبطة بالحلفاء. 📌 بالنسبة للنووي لا يعارض الإيرانيون العودة للصيغة العمانية المطروحة في لقاء جنيف الأخيرة والتي تتضمن آليات واضحة وتأكيد نية عدم تطوير سلاح نووي. 📌 يرفض الإيرانيون فرض سقف على برنامجهم الصاروخي. 📌 انهاء حالة الحرب وتوقيع معاهدة سلام مع أميركا يقرها الكونغرس ومحلس الشورى الإيراني وتوثق في مجلس الأمن الدولي ورفع فوري لجميع العقوبات. 📌

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
@JavierBlas @BreizhLondon They surely also know the Strait will only be a point of leverage for a short period of time, 2-3 years then it’s over (pipelines). They will need to strait to draw as many concessions now as they can.
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
@BreizhLondon Agree. ~3-4 VLCC a day and ~2-3 LR2 would do it But would the Iranians let that pass through? If they do, they give leverage over the US.
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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
The next Edward Gibbon is going to have to have a hard time explaining all this cogently.
The White House@WhiteHouse

“I am pleased to announce that TODAY my Administration officially filed the presentation and plans to the highly respected Commission of Fine Arts for what will be the GREATEST and MOST BEAUTIFUL Triumphal Arch, anywhere in the World. This will be a wonderful addition to the Washington D.C. area for all Americans to enjoy for many decades to come!” - President DONALD J. TRUMP

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
This is the most important part of @ed_fin’s excellent thread - The IRGC’s SDN designation is codified in statute under CAATSA & the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act, good luck getting Congress to repeal these any time soon!
Ed Finley–Richardson@ed_fin

@HFI_Research @citrini 7) Category B) cannot pay the IRGC because they are OFAC sanctioned and a terrorist organization. It is literally incredible that people do not realize why this would be a problem. You send money to sanctioned entities, your accounts are frozen, end of story.

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
Markets & the media are essentially pricing in that Vance has instructions to get a deal at almost any cost, but that means Iran know this too, so its hard to see how Iran backs away from its maximalist positions. You can only TACO so many times in a set of repeated games.
Gregory Brew@gbrew24

Fwiw Vance would not be getting on a plane to Pakistan if there was still real doubt that the Iranians wouldn't show (as they are threatening, in the absence of a cease-fire in Lebanon).

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
@pineconemacro And Ghalibaf is going to be the more reasonable of the Iranian delegation in Islamabad.
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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
@Ab83126691 Several sources have stated that its likely Zolghadr will join the negotiations in Islamabad, if that turns out to be true, it will be a clear sign of a rift. There are many other sign posts that point toward growing frictions. Who actually turns up tomorrow will be informative.
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Ab
Ab@Ab83126691·
@matcasey "Iran International" is neither an official Iranian news media nor even a trustworthy source on Iran/ ME..believe has been exposed several times as an Israeli propaganda mouthpiece?
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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
There are clearly factional debates within the new regime which is understandable given the circumstances but the risks this poses are immense, everything from an inability to agree or enforce a deal all the way to outright civil war, none of it great for the opening of of SoH.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

BASED ON INFORMATION RECEIVED BY IRAN INTERNATIONAL, AND ON THE EVE OF THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AND THE UNITED STATES IN ISLAMABAD, A SEVERE DISAGREEMENT HAS EMERGED AMONG SENIOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN IRAN REGARDING THE COMPOSITION AND POWERS OF THE NEGOTIATING DELEGATION. - SOURCES

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Mathew Casey
Mathew Casey@matcasey·
This is the most important part of @ed_fin’s excellent thread - The IRGC’s SDN designation is codified in statute under CAATSA & the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act, good luck getting Congress to repeal these any time soon!
Ed Finley–Richardson@ed_fin

@HFI_Research @citrini 7) Category B) cannot pay the IRGC because they are OFAC sanctioned and a terrorist organization. It is literally incredible that people do not realize why this would be a problem. You send money to sanctioned entities, your accounts are frozen, end of story.

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Jelajahi

@GestaltU @JavierBlas @BreizhLondon @JDVance @ed_fin @pineconemacro @elonmusk @BarackObama