Safari Capital

@MichaelWigginsO tom lee is forecasting the bear market this year

As the market turns, it does so in steps. You are never ever going to get a clear memo that the next leg of the bull market is starting Because bull markets are born out of pessimism

@MauiBoyMacro not sure why you pretend not to under understand the original chart. and then me saying under $100 is gonna be ok

@smallmidcaps Keep moving the goal posts…

maybe adjust for inflation first lol

@MauiBoyMacro we won't get a $200 oil, which is what happened in 2007

@smallmidcaps Are you still lol’ing?

@MauiBoyMacro yeah the incompetence really shows. trump replaced khamenei with his vengeful son. biden replaced the taliban with the taliban. what's the point of these foreign conflicts?

@smallmidcaps That didn’t take long. Oops! 👇🏼

anything under $100 isn't crisis level

@wanlmeddoc2000 the market will give whatever multiple it wants. burry is questioning the accounting method, which is ridiculous. previously, he questioned the length of the depreciation period for chips even though companies always had the liberty to use and justify any length they want.

@smallmidcaps Agreed — GAAP SBC is the honest baseline. The tricky part is the market pricing the future productivity of those employees. Sometimes dilution is a cost… sometimes it’s rocket fuel.

$NVDA $PLTR $TSLA Actual cash Stock-Based Compensation costs are much higher than GAAP SBC expense. This is not because the employees' shares went up in value. The shares were not yet in employees' hands. The grants of RSUs are made with the expectation of appreciation in value, but nearly all potential upside is funded by shareholders directly through future dilution or future massive buybacks to nowhere. Companies benefit by offloading nearly all that upside from the income statement, but it shows up large down the road in the financing cash flows. What actually happens - employee grant to employee is valued at $10, stock rises to $100, now $NVDA must spend $100 in buybacks to offset the dilution from that original $10 value grant. The employee gets $90, the shareholder funds it through the buybacks to nowhere. GAAP SBC expense is based on that small initial value. Honest securities valuation would not ignore the true cash cost.

@longriverCM @michaeljburry what’s wrong with that if the share count stays the same but free cash flow skyrockets?

I wonder if these companies all do the same thing. Initially, they use heavy Stock Based Compensation to attract talents, and set up vesting period and strict timeline. Then, they will try to hide dilution using buybacks. During earning seasons, they report adjusted earnings excluding Stock Based Compensation. I know $SNOW used to do that quite a bit.

@3Plantey2 @hiddensmallcaps you obviously have the bias against diversification and you somehow convinced yourself that the study disproves its own claims.

@hiddensmallcaps Read the story before you comment on stuff you don't understand. The 4% number comes from the net market cap add. As in, the largest performers naturally stood for all the net ads. It's a useless metric.

This is why I prefer to trade stocks vs buy and hold (for individual stocks). If you want to buy and hold, you have to pick the top 4 out of 100.

@ChiaWatchItGrow 90 percent of advanced chips are made in taiwan.

@smallmidcaps TSMC has fabs around the world now - Phoenix, Japan, Germany. And US can still restrict ASML from selling their most advanced litho machines. We don't lose anything and can still contain China.

Trump can easily end the two major wars happening in the world right now by offering not to block a Taiwan take over if China can end the Russian and Iranian wars. Both countries would collapse if China didn't back them. Peace is achieved by the US not doing anything.

$VELO

$NVDA $TSM $ASML

@JustinTLogan @AlexNowrasteh

This leaking immediately says several things all at once.

@thoheck @truflation @NickTimiraos if i think that the inflation will get worse in the next few months, i’ll have to get more defensive in how i manage my portfolio. simple as that. the market is forward looking. most rate changes are priced in by the time they happen.

@smallmidcaps @truflation @NickTimiraos What good it does having the info if the Fed doesn’t use it. What decisions are made using truflation numbers. For the last 6 months they’ve been saying inflation is softening,then we get CPI/PCE numbers that don’t mesh with that, and those are numbers the Fed bases decisions on

CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest since March 2024.

@thoheck @truflation @NickTimiraos i followed truflation for 2 years and it always correctly told me whether the inflation would get worse or better in the next few months. but you are telling me i should stop using it as the LEADING indicator.

@smallmidcaps @truflation @NickTimiraos I think you’re overlooking the fact that truflation has its own issues. The accuracy isn’t what you (or the company) is saying it is, according to their numbers we should have been cutting months ago. From the ISM report today, this clearly is not the case

@thoheck @truflation @NickTimiraos i don’t understand why you expected the leading indicator to predict rate decisions when the fed is backward-looking. if the truflation rate of near 1 percent persists, it’ll eventually show up in the bls data.

@smallmidcaps @truflation @NickTimiraos Are you serious? Rate decisions are the most important outcome of any inflation number. If you’re basing consumption models on truflation numbers that’s an interesting strategy

@thoheck @truflation @NickTimiraos that's a wild take. that's not what truflation is for. maybe go to prediction markets for that.

@smallmidcaps @truflation @NickTimiraos It has done nothing in terms of predicting Fed moves so not sure how it’s helped you

@thoheck @truflation @NickTimiraos ive relied on truflation as a LEADING indicator for the last 2 years and it has worked as intended.

@smallmidcaps @truflation @NickTimiraos CPI trending the opposite way