BoxLongs

$RKT BTIG PORTAL WARS- Portal War II & Coming-Soon Listings How Big Could Coming Soon Opportunity Be? WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Rocket's (RKT, Buy, $25 PT; Analyst: Eric Hagen) Redfin linked up w/Compass (COMP, Buy, $15 PT) & Zillow (ZG, Neutral) w/four top brokers in the race to secure exclusive deals for off-MLS "coming soon" listings. COMP opened a door for brokers to pre-market listings before they hit the MLS & the portals want access to those listings to plug any potential leakage & lock competitors out. How are we thinking about the scale of this coming-soon opportunity? 1. While an important shift in industry practices, our analysis suggests that the numbers involved are too small to impact estimates on either the portal or brokerage side of the ledger, 2. We pencil to an off-MLS potential of >250K listings which could net out to 10K-11K annual transactions, ~$150M of GCI & ~$50M of potential portal revenue, but those would be $ simply shifting from inside to outside the traditional MLS pathway, 3. We see greater fragmentation as a modest negative for ZG (deals = good coverage & limited revenue risk) & small plus for COMP (more control, but no visibility for off-MLS on #1 portal). ■ Background. COMP has been pushing for flexibility in how listings are marketed vs. industry rules requiring listings to be posted to the MLS within 24 hours. COMP sparked Portal War II after inking an exclusive deal to display off-MLS listings on Redfin w/leads flowing free to the listing agent. ZG struck back w/exclusive deals for coming soon listings from four top brokers. This has generated a lot of debate & is certainly important as a precedent, but our analysis suggests the # of listings & $ at stake are relatively small. ■ Off-MLS Listings. We estimate for-sale listings based on annualized existing home sales & an assumed delisting rate of ~25% (4.05M / 75% = 5.4M listings). COMP's off-MLS listings (Private Exclusive + Coming Soon) amount to ~30% of its total w/ coming soon at ~5%. In assessing industry potential, we focus on the latter. Putting COMP at low-teens (stand-alone 30% w/HOUS at 5%) & the rest at 5% would put potential coming soon listings at 250K-300K. The point being that 250k-300k of the 5M+ listings that were routed to ZG & Redfin by industry rules might now be up for grabs. We estimate that Redfin has locked up a low-teens % of that via COMP, while brokers aligned w/ZG are maybe high-teens leaving ~60% up for grabs. ■ How About $? Shifting listings from the traditional MLS tract to a new pathway wouldn't lead to net new home sales, but it could pull lead-gen revenue into a more competitive environment. The ZG exclusive deals would appear to be a means to combat leakage towards challengers like Redfin or CoStar's (CSGP, Buy, $60 PT) Homes.com. How much portal revenue could be up for grabs? If ~4% of those offMLS coming soon listings sell before hitting the MLS (based on COMP commentary), buyside GCI could be ~$150M. At a ~35% referral rate, that could translate to ~ $50M of portal revenue. ■ Bottom Line. We see greater flexibility around pre-MLS marketing as a slight negative for ZG. ZG has exclusive deals to capture a significant portion of coming soon listings, but we expect more fragmentation in the off-MLS landscape & ZG has agreed to cede unit economics to the listing agent. We say slight because the $ involved in all of that appear limited. More flexibility is a positive for COMP w/ZG's ban on private listing done, better portal visibility for listing agents & better leadgen economics. As w/ZG though, we characterize the positives as modest. What about CSGP's Homes.com? Homes.com hasn't secured any exclusive coming soon listing deals, so could be at a disadvantage. Note too that the Redfin-ZG deals give free visibility to listing agents in environments that historically monetized on the buyside vs. Homes.com's sellside model. All that said, we don't expect this shift in listings practices to materially impact '26-'27 estimates for ZG, COMP or CSGP

$RKT $30 PT FEELS WAY LOW-

$SNAP The governance discount reprices immediately upon announcement because: Index inclusion unlocks billions of passive buying. FTSE Russell excluded Snap specifically because of the non-voting structure. S&P has similar governance screens. A credible sunset (say, Class C converts to Class A over 5 years, or upon hitting certain stock price thresholds) would put index eligibility back on the table. That's not incremental demand at the margin. That's a structural shift in the buyer base. Institutional mandates widen the shareholder base overnight. Many large-cap growth and value funds have explicit governance screens that exclude Snap. CalPERS, Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, various ESG-screened mandates. You announce a sunset and those mandates flip from "can't own" to "can own." It costs him almost nothing in practice. Spiegel and Murphy hold ~6.3% of economic equity but 99.5% of votes. A 5-7 year sunset would let Spiegel maintain control through the Spectacles launch, the Perplexity integration, and the full DR advertising buildout. By the time the sunset kicks in, either the company has executed and the stock is materially higher (and he's wealthier on his Class A economics), or it hasn't, and the control premium was protecting a deteriorating asset anyway. The asymmetry favors reform. His net worth depends on Class A economics, not voting power. Spiegel holds 30.1M Class A shares and 123.7M Class C shares. His wealth is a function of the stock price, not the voting structure. Every dollar of governance discount he maintains costs him personally across all his shares.

$SNAP - if you were Evan Spiegel, the CEO of snapchat, and you could do 1 thing to get your stock price up, what would it be?

$SNAP SWING TRADE PATTERN $7 X $9 FINALLY BROKE... AND BROKE BADLY

@TwoThreeXYZ $BKKT orange tile...

@BoxLongs I have no idea lol

$BKKT so nobody has figured out the orange tile reference? cmon degens!!!!??

$LPSN crazy comment- Moving to our go-to-market performance, we are seeing continued confidence from our largest enterprise customers. This is reflected in several significant renewals this quarter, including seven major financial services institutions, two major airline carriers, three leading telecom and internet service providers, and a major healthcare provider. These renewals underscore the durability of our platform, the strength of our enterprise relationships, and our ability to deliver measurable value across highly regulated and customer-centric industries.

$LPSN still cant believe they said this- Positive Net New ARR Expected in Second Half 2026, but Revenue Still Declines All Year. This was the most analytically important moment of the call. The CFO reconciled what sounds contradictory: they expect positive net new ARR in the back half, yet revenue still declines sequentially throughout 2026. The explanation is that historical customer losses from prior periods are still running through the P&L;, and that negative impact fully offsets the positive contribution from new ARR being added in the second half. In other words, the churn waterfall from 2024-2025 decisions hasn't fully flushed yet. NRR was 78% in Q4, down from 80% in Q3. The CFO noted NRR is a lagging metric that will keep declining until revenue itself inflects.

$LPSN needs an injection of capital. $2.56. still $300M EV on $200M revs run rate... 1.5x.... there is a price i will buy it, just listened to the replay of the call, they sounded decent. $GOOG is sucking them in...

$cept whaddya do with this one ?

@theripsnorter wow.

25 years ago, Florida was 16% (3M) smaller than New York. Today, Florida is 19% (3.8M) larger.

$gemi smoked at btc up - oooof

$AMZN - WF Based on YTD prices, project cost headwinds to 1Q/2Q/2026 of $280M/$880M/$3.3B, a 130bps/380bps/330bps impact vs. street OI. Current US diesel price/gal +43% vs YTD avg at 4Q:25 EPS. Estimate 10% chg ($0.50/gal) at $1.3B impact to annualized costs

$BKKT the orange tile has precedent….

@srg444 $RKT yes move the feet every 50% move, trim the rips, buy the dips, write puts and calls again and again

@BoxLongs I think MSRs are susceptible to rate hikes and credit in general (COOP), but the underlying platform is worth way more. And think mgmt can manufacture any earnings print it wants. Feels like you're buying this platform for <10x earnings power. I can handle vol--can you?

$RKT smashed on the rip in rates - good chance to reload, ride with ValueAct

@srg444 i feel like the reaction is 90% rates. which i get. but the sentiment continues to swing wildly / reliably on that. maybe we get $10-12 in a sharp market drop, but feels like a reload point right here. big big TAM, good solid play on it $RKT

@BoxLongs I am

$RKT $LDI almost interesting again (under a buck) have the distinct feeling given the amount of MTV cribs video going on that $LDI is getting sold soon. seems inevitable.

$RKT is 40x the size and not standing still.... AI and Technology (Rocket is Not Standing Still) • Fully digital purchase pre-approvals launched February 2026, building on a fully digital refinance experience from July 2025. No loan officer required. 2.5x higher conversion rates vs. leads going directly to a loan officer before qualification. • AI-powered communications platform for loan officers handled 800K chats, sent 1.8 million texts, made 2 million outbound calls, and processed 5 million+ documents monthly in 2025. • Automation levels in underwriting: Document classification 75% automated, document data extraction 80%, income verification 55%, asset verification 40%, property verification 40%. These are being systematically increased. • 1.1 million+ team member hours saved annually through AI and automation in underwriting alone. • Redfin's conversational search launched across its app, website, and ChatGPT in late 2025 / early 2026. Rocket already has its own ChatGPT-adjacent capabilities through Redfin's integration.