BoxLongs

We are back after a little nautical and golf vacation- time for some new asymmetric “moon shots” what will we think of next. Something new that can work on its own. $AMPL is starting to perk up. I hope we can get out of factor rotation hell and back to good old fashioned fundamentals. $SNAP we keep selling vol scraping up nickels after a terrible start to the year. $BKKT is back to “fat pitch” prices for some Clarity Act risk on. Intrigued by $RKT $LDI here, back to close eyes and take a shot levels. $SPCX sub $150 with plenty of room to slide on profit taking and unlocked shares galore. $API we want to be there. Big insider accumulation and accelerating growth. $GLXY $PATH $QTRX on the nibble list - waiting for fat pitches.

@ReesePolitics HALF CASH. HALF STOCK.

Breaking: GameStop Corp. CEO and Chairman Ryan Cohen is heading back to the media circuit by joining Bloomberg Tech on July 16, 2026 at 11:30 a.m. ET. $GME

@hntrbrkmedia @SammyKoppelman @CNBC Big moment for Sam on the “main stage” at CNBC $BE i love how the reporters seem to side with the targets and not the investigator(s)

“It’s worth asking: If there’s a Theranos of the AI movement…who is it?” @SammyKoppelman hopped on @CNBC this morning to talk about our latest investigation into $BE

@oneinarow11 it has not even started. still way too cheap relative to the positioning, innovation and accelerating growth imo. wake me up at $2-3B

@BoxLongs Price has rated up big time… what are your thoughts at 9.40? Like the action but hoping the market isn’t setting expectations too high heading into q2 release

$AMPL if the WAVE product is real, $AMPL is going to $100 Wave Tracking Framework Wave is in closed beta with no public-facing metrics, no pricing, and no GA date beyond "H2 2026," so there's no single clean KPI to follow. We have to triangulate across multiple layers: Tier 1: Direct Metrics (when they exist) The Wave blog post from Eric Carlson (June 10, 2026) disclosed four internal benchmarks: opportunity approval rate improved from 5% to 70%+, E2E ship rate on mature codebase at ~11% (vs. ~50% "would do" rate), fresh-repo throughput at 101 features/week, and quality judge F1 score at 80%. These are internal dogfooding metrics with no external tracking mechanism. The next opportunity to get updated numbers is Q2 earnings (~August 5-6). Key questions for that call: design partner count, approval rate trajectory, and whether the 11% E2E ship rate has moved. Tier 2: Indirect Proxies We Already Track The MCP plugin install series (currently at 1,771 cumulative, ~15/day steady state) serves as an indirect proxy for the broader agentic surface area that Wave sits on top of. Agent-originated query volume as a percentage of total platform queries (~25% as of Q1 FY26) is the higher-signal financial metric, and Wave should accelerate this number materially since it dispatches multi-agent swarms across analytics, session replay, experiments, and feedback in continuous loops. Watch for management to disaggregate agent query volume into "human-prompted" vs. "Wave-autonomous" on the Q2 call. Tier 3: Financial Signals Since Wave requires the full product suite (Analytics + Session Replay + Experiments + Guides + Feedback), multi-product attach rate (47% of customers on 1+ product as of Q1) should inflect upward if Wave adoption is meaningful. NRR (106% spot, 105% TTM) is the ultimate downstream metric. Also watch AI inference cost pressure on gross margins, which already compressed ~200bps in Q1. Wave's agent swarm architecture will intensify this. Tier 4: Competitive and Narrative Signals Watch for: (a) whether sell-side coverage picks up Wave in their models or keeps it as qualitative, (b) competitor announcements of similar full-loop product agents, (c) design partner case studies or customer references that Amplitude publishes, and (d) amplitude.com/wave page updates for any transition from "closed beta" to "open beta" or GA language. Primary catalysts to monitor: Q2 FY26 earnings call (~August 5-6) for any Wave adoption metrics. CFO/CEO conference appearances between now and then for qualitative color. The product page itself (amplitude.com/wave) for status changes. And any incremental Wave-related blog posts from Carlson or the AI team. Sources: Wave Product Launch Analysis Memo (06/10/26), Product Demo Memo (03/05/26), MCP Plugin Install Analysis Update #3 (06/24/26), Q1 FY26 Earnings Call (05/06/26), Amplitude Investor Day Presentation (Mar 2025), Eric Carlson Wave Blog Post (06/10/26).

Fun math: $CXW just sold two owned detention facilities to DHS at a blended price of $322k/bed. Apply $322k/bed to $GEO's 50k owned bed footprint and it implies a replacement cost of $16B for their owned facilities or $120/share. Or... Take their own Lawton facility sale and use that sale price of $131k/bed and the same math gets us to $48/share in replacement cost. Most likely, of the GEO assets today, we estimate there are ~16k beds that they would sell or would be desired by DHS. These assets are in GA, CA, TX, NJ, LA, MI. Say GEO gets $250k/bed on these held for sale assets...that gets us $31.6/share in proceeds. Bottomline, $GEO can easily double or triple or more from here based on the current market equity value relative to NAV.

@Bob382475496782 Leaning long. For no good reason. Small size. Short 4.50 puts writing $5 calls. Decent core slug right here. Just trying to pick up nickels. Ive been terrible in this thing. Worst stock this year. Still think super mis priced (low)

@BoxLongs You still eyeing $3.80?

$SNAP gotta love that intraday in Snap. cant wait for the day the platforms flip from short to long, they are so damn fat and happy betting against this company for years - lol

$GEO is not drowning in debt anymore - that is a false characterization. Actually the opposite.

@NftSpaceman Yes $330k / bed would be a massive #. I dont think they are getting that on the facilities in play. More like $200k ball park.

@BoxLongs if price is 330K based on civic wouldn't that make them worth at least $40+?

$GEO the results... and so much more coming...

*TRUMP: THE MARKET IS GOING TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF

@blueoutliercap i think the numbers they get for these facilities are going to be a lot higher than people think $GEO

@BoxLongs Holy shit, over $330k a bed??

$GEO Is worth a lot of money- here are some marks... ir.corecivic.com/news-releases/…

Strategy has sold 3,588 $BTC for $216 million to fund dividends on our Digital Credit securities. As of 7/5/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserves and $2.55 billion in our USD Reserves. strategy.com/press/strategy…

We need a bit more shame. People used to avoid certain self-interested behaviors to avoid shame, private and public. Law and customs assumed this. Now, 38% of Stanford students claim to be disabled. 40% of young women (under 35) claim mental illness, and SSI disability payments have gone up 400% in a single generation. It isn't good for anyone, least of all people who are actually disabled, when everyone looks the other way as friends and family and peers con the system with a level of shamelessness no architect of our safety net ever imagined could be possible in America. When everyone is disabled, nobody is.

@EvaLovesDesign Beautiful

It was July 4, 1976, the Bicentennial, and New York Harbor filled with the grandest parade of tall ships. Operation Sail 🇺🇸

The problem with truth is, once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

BREAKING: Treasury officially unveils U.S. bills bearing Trump’s signature for America’s 250th birthday.

Happy Birthday USA

@trustfundterry Haha. god bless bottle rockets and M80s

How drinking a case of domestic beers and becoming an amateur pyrotechnician looks at me today

Happy 250th Birthday to a nation like no other. America is exceptional because it is the exception — a place where a particular set of ideas, a particular set of values, and a particular set of customs, formulated by a particular set of men in a particular place at a particular time created a covenant nation. That the covenant has extended to men with different beliefs and histories — first to Catholics and to Jews, Irish and German and Italian, freed slaves and others, so long as they would embrace the ideas and values and customs and swear fealty to the same in the form of our Constitution — has not been a weakness but a strength, as has been borne out by the incredible rise of the new nation to heights previously unknown in human history. The American Experiment, the “experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people,” as George Washington called it, is always just that. It’s never fully proven. It is a promise made by the republic to us and by us to the republic and to each other. It is a republic, if we can keep it. A republic conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. The promise is ours to keep or to discard at our great peril. The promise has been abused, both by the state and by ourselves and our neighbors. It has been strained and tested. It is being strained and tested now. The ideas and values and customs are often attacked or co-opted by novel philosophies, or overwhelmed by uncontrolled and unassimilated migration, or hollowed out by our lack of faithfulness to them and to the Creator who is their author. The covenant isn’t fragile. It has endured in the face of many faithless acts over two and a half centuries. But nor is it, like the New Covenant of our Salvation, secured by the blood of Christ. No. It is secured only by our own blood — and some incalculable measure of God’s grace. It is ours only so long as we fight for it —against all enemies foreign and domestic — even the chief domestic enemy, our own faithlessness and fear and anger and despair. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes. The American experiment should not be abandoned simply because it is showing wear. So beautiful, if a bit bruised, a reed we should not break. To do so would be to forsake the blood of our fathers, and to flaunt the greatest blessing of God to man in almost half a millennium. Today, let us renew the covenant. Let us carry on the great experiment, and let us embrace the exception so that it may remain exceptional. Let us live out the great creed handed to us by those particular men and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity. God bless America and help us to keep her.

Two hundred and fifty years ago, a band of patriots gathered in Philadelphia and changed the course of history. What followed was eight years of war, sacrifice, and an unshakable belief that liberty was worth fighting for. Against all odds, they defeated the greatest empire on earth and founded a republic unlike any before it. Their courage secured the blessings of liberty for generations of Americans. Today, we celebrate 250 years of American Independence. As @POTUS has said, the best is yet to come. Happy Independence Day, and God bless the United States of America.