Caspian

The Art of the First Day - SpaceX Edition $SPCX comes public Friday in its record-setting $1.75 billion IPO. The question is how to trade it? The Art of the First Day answers by focusing on 2 things: -Where fear sets in -Where FOMO sets in You can argue all day about valuation and growth potential. But the the price action will show you where real demand and supply are. That's how we get paid. I've used the Art of the First Day in countless names over the years - everything from $CBRS to $COIN to $HOOD to $META and even oldies like $LNKD and $TWTR. And you can learn it here for free:

AI data centers are expected to consume more than 600 TWh of electricity in 2026, accounting for 6% of the United States! Data centers are reshaping the pattern of electricity demand. I believe we can build positions in $BE in batches from now until the end of this year with high certainty. This is especially suitable for investors who have profited handsomely yet feel wary of the overvalued storage sector. Here is a fact-based analysis: —Demand: AI data centers are expected to consume over 600 TWh of electricity in 2026, accounting for 6% of total national power usage. U.S. commercial electricity demand growth has been revised up to 5%, driven almost entirely by data centers. —Sector shift: Power utilities are evolving from cyclical stocks into dual-asset plays: AI infrastructure plus defensive high-dividend stocks, bringing strong growth certainty. —Capital flow: Top institutions including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been increasing their holdings in power stocks since Q4 2025, as the sector remains significantly underweighted.

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history. To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution. Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence. The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing. Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies. The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead. So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference. As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT. More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL. But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV. Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs. But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing. Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing. OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot. So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year. I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt. And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals. As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy. Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028. Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well. OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet. So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

$AXTI was a generational find brother. I remember you talked about it when it was around $17 or so and then there were a lot of doubters, especially in WSB BETS who named you “exit strategy “. Then the results came out and it crashed to $11. That’s when I picked up a bunch to think that it goes from 11 to over 140 in a period of six months it’s insane. Sadly, I sold out between 60 and 70 and I don’t have this anymore.