Colonel Foley

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Colonel Foley

Colonel Foley

@ColonelFoley

Futures trader - CTA

Monaco 参加日 Temmuz 2025
12 フォロー中4 フォロワー
Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@ed_fin Maybe that's going to wake the hedge funds a little bit
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@wisdomandboats We've got something like 20% VLCC who are stuck inside the strait or in the waiting...Rates are going to fall a little bit and stabilize also routes are going to be much longer I am still bullish on the tankers even if the Strait stays closed
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Wisdom & Boats
Wisdom & Boats@wisdomandboats·
This is starting to come into fruition VLCC rates in West africa and Brazil have now dropped below pre-war rates on the week of 2/23 That week West Africa loading hovered around ws 150-195 with rates now at ws 140. Same story for Brazil as rates hovered around ws 155-185 the week before the war with now a recent fixture going for ws 144 USG/Carib VLCC rates are holding stronger at $16-17 million, but rates the week before the war hovered around $15-16 million, so the initial rates spike has largely subsidized. This decrease has also been prevalent in other segments as Suezmax rates in West Africa while black sea rates hold stronger than expected. Aframax earnings, especially in the Caribs, probably had one of the most dramatic spikes in rates due to extremely limited vessel supply. Over the past 1-2 weeks a substantial amount of tonnage has started to ballast west massively pushing down rates from their peaks, but rates still hold high above pre-war levels. The markets will continue to stay volatile and hard to predict, but the fundamental drivers will hold if the situation persists. The USG will hold as a very active loading zone with stronger rates as VLCC and aframaxes both benefit from their symbiotic-like dynamic for lightening. Med rates will likely remain stronger for Aframaxes and Suezmaxes while loading zones like West Africa and Brazil continue to face softer rates looking ahead. Expect the market to stay very volatile and with more vessel supply freeing up and migrating, we’ll likely see an ongoing wave-like dynamic in rates fluctuating stronger and weaker as vessel supply decreases and increases. #tankers #oott #iran
Wisdom & Boats@wisdomandboats

Crude tanker rates have been obviously enormously strong lately, but looking forward to the next 1-2 weeks we’ll likely see a weakening ahead (assuming the SOH remains closed) An increasingly large amount of crude tankers are now heading West and are now entering the availability to be fixed for cargoes. Many of the vessels are coming for Asia, but also a lot (particularly VLCCs) are coming from OPL near Sri Lanka and anchorage throughout the Arabian sea. (seen below in the map) The demand loss in the Middle east has become much more apparent over the past week. Many owners are deciding to cut their losses and head west for available cargoes after slow steaming and/or anchoring these past few weeks. Most notably rates in West Africa and Brazil will likely feel this most and Suezmaxes and VLCCs compete for cargoes, ultimately increasing supply and options for charters, thus pushing down rates. USG markets will likely remain less impacted for VLCCs and Aframaxes as export demand remains heightened and lightering options remain very limited, but rates will likely see some pressure, especially for Suezmaxes as they lack the fundamental support in the USG compared to other segments. European markets will also feel the supply increase, but likely lessened and delayed (due to longer distance & Black Sea risk) as impacts seem more muted for now. This was bound to happen as a lot of vessel supply has been caught up in the East. But don’t get me wrong, rates will still stay strong nonetheless. Rates may dip closer to pre-war levels, especially in West Africa, but owners will still be making a killing. However it is worth to note, if the situation remains the same tanker demand to Asia will most likely increase further as floating storage is depleted and oil reserves start to become heavily reduced. The crude supply loss has been damped in Asia due to the usage of Iranian/Russian oil on the water (especially China) and with oil reserves releases in Korea and Japan. This buffer won’t last much longer and later in this month (assuming the situation persists) Id expect another uptick in demand to Asia as desperation for supply becomes very apparent in the East, driving up tanker rates again. And maybe even to new highs… #oott #tankers #iran

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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@wisdomandboats Also offshore rigs will be called by a lot of countries trying to smooth out their commercial balance if this happens
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Wisdom & Boats
Wisdom & Boats@wisdomandboats·
Middle East crude oil (DPP) imports to Asia have declined by over 11 million bpd, & Asian oil product (CPP) exports have fallen by over 6.5 million bpd. Intra-Asia trade is collapsing & the impacts are being felt everywhere. Southeast Asia, Oceania, & the USWC are being hit the hardest by this so far For tankers, the impacts are massive as crude and clean exports have increasingly rerouted to Asia. Crude oil import have rerouted to the East mainly from: -The USG -Brazil/Argentina -Europe/Med -West Africa -Yanbu -Vancouver via the TMX pipeline Clean products have mainly rerouted to Asia from: -The USG -India -Europe/Med Further down the supply chain, previous major importers of Asian refined products now have to source products elsewhere. Because of this, very unusual voyages across huge distances are starting to be seen that would normally be wildly uneconomical. But now, they are supported due to high prices and huge price differentials as many regions face massive shortages. It’s chaos in the market and It’ll only worsen as paper markets catch up and as the supply buffer disappears in Asia, making the shortages become even more prevalent. But for tankers, an unbalanced market fueled by a massive supply disruption, is a shipowners dream come true. #tankers #iran #oott
Wisdom & Boats tweet media
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@wisdomandboats Your right if this happen even for a year or 2...the tanker markets will become the hottest thing
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@wisdomandboats This rerouting is taking a trend that the market hasn't recognized yet. If you look geopolitically speaking the US is trying to make the rest of the world dependent on the Americas oil (USA Venezuela Canada Brazil...) It will save the petrodollars maybe for a decade
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@NStepmum RIG with the merger will have almost a monopoly on offshore oil
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NS Investments
NS Investments@NStepmum·
Energy indepence/infrastructure has never been more important $RIG $VAL $OIH $COAL $GLNG $TNZ.TO Have been forcing myself to find reasons to sell RIG but dont see much bear cases to this.
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Ed Finley–Richardson
Ed Finley–Richardson@ed_fin·
Me, reading hot takes by influencers w/ 100k+ followers who had never heard about Hummus (or shipping) until 3 weeks ago:
Ed Finley–Richardson tweet media
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Alain Soral Officiel
Alain Soral Officiel@officielsoral·
Voici ce qu'on appelle une belle inversion accusatoire !
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@MABobserver What a bunch of degenerates...Reminds me of the movie There will be blood...Typical american heritage : Sociopathic protestant illuminates hungry for wealth
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MAB Observer
MAB Observer@MABobserver·
🇺🇸🇮🇱 Un pasteurs à Pâques à la Maison Blanche « Dieu a élevé Trump pour tuer les Iraniens islamiques pour le peuple juif »
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@christankerfund I am out...They should have done multiples buybacks with the stock swings...Hit the jackpot in 2022 with a highly leveraged balance sheet...The stock could've gone from 10 to 120.Bad decisions on extremely good circumstances
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Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢@christankerfund·
$STNG closed on its Notes. Full $50M exercised for $375M total
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢 tweet media
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CNEWS
CNEWS@CNEWS·
Catherine Nay sur la relation entre Jordan Bardella et Maria Carolina de Bourbon des Deux-Siciles : «Il sait que s'il est candidat dans un an, il ne peut pas, à 30 ans, arriver seul à l'Élysée», dans #Punchline Toute l'info est à retrouver sur cnews.fr
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Colonel Foley
Colonel Foley@ColonelFoley·
@ed_fin BWET at ATH and tanker going down...tough day again for the shipping stocks
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Robin Monotti
Robin Monotti@robinmonotti·
Did you know that there are more than 300,000 Christians living in Iran & over 650 Christian Churches? Why is Trump hiding this?
Robin Monotti tweet media
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