David Batty がリツイート
No civilisation thankfully died last night, but a Presidency deserves to.
Here below a former senior US security official concedes that the ceasefire agreement Trump has signed is not “status quo ante bellum” ie the US is now worse off than at the start of this war of choice.
To spell it out, Trump needlessly started a war at the urging of Israel, refused to listen to those experts urging caution, devised a strategy built on a misapprehension of Iran, sparked a ruinous regional conflict, caused the death of thousands of civilians, unhinged the world economy, strengthened, for now, the repressive instincts of the Iranian and Russian governments, left America more discredited & isolated, provoked serious questions about the President’s fitness for public office, laid waste to large parts of Iran and Lebanon, including medical research centres, primary schools and universities, did not resolve Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium or its future nuclear program, strengthened those in Iran backing possession of a nuclear weapon, and yes ensured Iran and Oman still plan to control and toll the Strait of Hormuz for the first time.
A return to war will doubtless soon be threatened even before the 2 week ceasefire ends, but the use of force in this decades old conflict has now been test driven and proven the wrong vehicle since it can only achieve its objectives at an inconceivable price.
Trump has now agreed that Iran’s 10 point maximalist plan is a “workable basis for negotiation”, and Trump’s 15 point plan will also be considered. But that leaves him worse off than when Witkoff and Kushner were in Geneva in February. The US with a weaker hand may need to send a team led by Vance and some proper nuclear experts to Islamabad to rescue the negotiating progress previously made, and prematurely spurned. Iran will feel less to no pressure to concede on its right to enrich uranium domestically, the single biggest previous point of dispute. Iran has also not explicitly conceded the need to negotiate over its ballistic missiles or support for proxy resistance groups such as Hezbollah. It will instead negotiate bilateral or multilateral “non aggression pacts with its regional neighbours”.
Trump is now prematurely speaking of a golden era for the Middle East but scars are deep and negotiations will require far more than a fortnight.
With luck the exhausting governing style of threats, deadlines, expletives, and menacing abuse that demeans America will now be set aside or denounced, starting with Cuba. Someone in the Trump cabinet may even look in the mirror and realise dollops of sycophantic praise may feed the narcissist, but only sullies them, and the political future of Republicans. Even Lindsay Graham might learn there is virtue in reticence. Some way of tethering Trump in the seven months to the mid terms is badly needed.
European countries including UK Italy and Germany will now have to decide what lessons they learn from this shameful episode, and how they secure their national sovereignty. The European pillar in NATO may have to become the only pillar relatively soon.
For when the US vice president crosses the Atlantic to campaign to keep a pro Russian authoritarian Viktor Orban in office, it looks as if America has tragically evolved into something more sinister than a wayward ally. As Mark Carney at Davos advised “it’s time to live in truth”.
Brett McGurk@brett_mcgurk
Trump posts Iranian FM statement: transit through the SoH “will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” That is not status quo ante bellum.
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