@justakeelguy Age has nothing to do with pivoting from BTC mining into HPC/AI. The only thing that matters is experience!
Saying "great hire by the board" is a misrepresentation of the company as he went from CMO to CEO.
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72 posts
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@GetWITTit97
I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful, an idiot can run them. Sooner or later, one will. ** NFA **
Canada 参加日 Temmuz 2024
561 フォロー中163 フォロワー
Ben Gagnon.
Young CEO. Young company.
Exactly the kind of leadership you want in a rapidly evolving industry.
Great hire by the board.
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@InvestNorthwise I have plenty of investment banking experience. Let me know if you require any contributions to the modelling/ valuation techniques.
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@GetWITTit97 Building out full models for energization timeline, dilution, capex/financing requirements, price targets, pv, including an acquisition case.
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$BITF and $KEEL illustrate that even a shell-style strategy implies $1.29B to $3.01B of capital for 430 MW at $3M to $7M per MW, far exceeding the current $520M liquidity base.
Expanding that same framework across the 2.2 GW pipeline pushes total capital needs into a $6.6B to $15.4B range, placing the opportunity in an entirely different scale category.
The valuation therefore hinges on the ability to finance and phase these builds, since the asset base alone does not bridge the gap to full development.
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@InvestNorthwise What exactly are you modelling? I have created several comprehensive models and am working on a PF model currently. Please let me know. I would like to view your model as well.
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@GetWITTit97 We have numbers for both the shell and owned approach. This is an example of the shell capex requirements. It’s a hypothetical based on common comparisons.
Our upcoming full model will take a mix and really assign our views of likely capex and ARR scenarios.
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@justakeelguy @InvestNorthwise and @bitcoinbutcher1 - What is everyone's perspective on the private credit market for HPC/AI DCs? Securing long lead times from ISA into ESA is important; however, permitting is incredibly difficult given the number of counterparties involved.
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I’ve been overanalyzing this stat and here’s where I land…
If nearly half of new data centers are delayed or canceled, that’s not bearish.
It’s a bottleneck.
And bottlenecks reward the players who already have power secured.
$KEEL doesn’t have the largest portfolio,
but what they do have just became significantly more valuable.
This is bad for new entrants.
It’s great for those already plugged in.
@InvestNorthwise @McnallieM @bitcoinbutcher1 would love to get your thoughts!
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Nearly half of the U.S. data centers planned for 2026 are reportedly expected to be delayed or canceled.
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@MintzerMiguel @DustinHuntwn No, I'm asking about the conversion between ISA into ESA? Given curtailment risk for data centers, firm power agreements with backup power generation is essential.
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@GetWITTit97 @DustinHuntwn It's a bad day to ask me that. I'm feeling very negative. PPL is moving slowly, and I think the reasons there are no signs of an agreement and the company isn't showing any urgency for a contract isn't the best prices, but rather they don't have the MW and it will take till 2028
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$BITF Ben is doing a fireside chat with Jefferies tomorrow at 10:15am.
Earnings talk, Jefferies, and McNally Money all back to back. My best guess is that he wants to get investors pumped up about the rebrand. I'm sure he is going to say the demand is super high and the margins are getting better as we wait, but we are closing in on a contract. Seems like he seeing the trends in the industry and really evaluating things. Crazy cause the stock is acting like it did back last summer. And Bitfarms sold off a good 30% of their sites, so btc price shouldn't be bringing it down so much. Plus their all in price with options last Q was 55,000. Completely oversold!
Like if you STILL believe $BITF.
Also you can follow me！I'll be tracking $BITF all the way.
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@DustinHuntwn Please share more as to what you had previously uncovered pertaining to Quebec's 170MW facilities. Are you referring to the AMD commentary?
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$BITF adding more if this drops tomorrow under $1.80. Regardless of macro environment this is bound to get some really positive news on Tuesday. Institutions own 37% now. Everyone remember Iren, Cipher, and Wulf were all under $5 last spring?
And if Ben isn't going to start Panther Creek soon, he should use some of that money and buy back any shares under $2. Last year they did that and the stock exploded. I don't even think they brought many shares back but the market obviously liked it. Sure would be nice to get the float under 500 million.
Also somebody on X claimed to see something leaked about Quebec but now it's been taken down. So yea, hopefully we all get surprised with good news on the smaller sites. If you ask me, I would do Washington, Quebec, and Sharon this year. Start Panther Creek by end of year and hopefully Scrubgrass by end of 2027. All depends on permitting and approvals I guess.
Like if you STILL believe $BITF.
You can follow me！ I'll be tracking $BITF all the way.
Dustin@DustinHuntwn
$BITF Expecting some major news as we head into the 4th month of the year, especially with over $1 billion in cash on hand. Ben has clearly been holding back on big announcements until the rebrand is complete. Permitting across the portfolio should be much further along by now. So the big question is — outside of Washington, which site is dropping next? Sharron, Quebec, or Panther Creek? Will Ben go ahead and sign an early contract in Washington just to get momentum going on the other sites? Or do they line up more project funding to push everything forward, on top of that $1B war chest? Another $400–500 million in project loans for the other sites would be ideal. They don’t want to get too leveraged without revenue coming in, but they also can’t afford to sit still and do nothing. I think we’ll see more project funding announcements soon, along with meaningful updates on the other sites.Still believe Ben is waiting until summer for the Washington deal to get the best possible terms. Once that contract is signed, they can comfortably raise more equity through convertible notes.
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@DustinHuntwn A couple of things worth noting:
1. A share buyback, no... when ROIC is much higher on data centers is not an effective way of using capital.
2. Scrubgrass should be non-existent in our analysis given time to market would be earliest YE'27.
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@MintzerMiguel @DustinHuntwn Given the large-scale and presence within PA, I would significantly reduce my position if they didn't take advantage of any tax incentives. The company mentioned they would redeploy capital into the local communities ~1m USD. What's your take on the ISA and ESA?
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@GetWITTit97 @DustinHuntwn The first thing they declared when the Planning Commission approved the project (still pending) was that they would not make use of the tax exemptions.
I refer to the ATM and the use they made of it in investments that ended with the sale of all the assets in SA to Hive.
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@MintzerMiguel @DustinHuntwn I agree with almost all your analysis. In terms of PA, there are certain tax exemptions this rebranding will unlock. Given Shapiro's stands on tax credits for DCs. The ATM is not necessary to build out Moses Lake excluding GPUs. They have plenty of working capital ~698m USD.
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@GetWITTit97 @DustinHuntwn But the change means little to nothing for retail. And even an announcement may have limited impact, unless it is a major one. I've seen them burn out their ATMs on unproductive trips back and forth, miners burning out (bought by this CEO), and imgs of them pumping the site at PY
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@DustinHuntwn This Fireside chat with senior management will be important for showing investors progress esp. at Moses Lake. If the demand exceeds 27% YoY for HPC compute, that is material!
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@MintzerMiguel @DustinHuntwn If you seriously believe the name change was completely a marketing PR, factually that is not correct. The rebrand was imperative for its sites in PA.
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@DustinHuntwn The rebranding means nothing. The context is terrible, but the lack of progress is being punished. It's incomprehensible that in six months, after draining the market of a fortune, they haven't been able to announce anything. Money isn't there to be burned through mo after mo
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@DarkEMP96414129 @StephenZeiner You're thinking too small, what about the entire 2.1GW including all the future development capacity!😂
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It appears that $KEEL (c/t/a $BITF) *may* have a new home on the web that's currently under development:
👉 keelinfra.com
I'm optimistic that in addition to announcing new business cards and a new website, there might be something like a GPUaaS or CoLo deal announced.
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@matthew_sigel While the cost of GPUs, companies like $BITF are direct beneficiary of this phenomenon as they are waiting to sign HPC/AI DC contacts.
@matthew_sigel - what's your take on companies locking in Greenfield infrastructure developments? It's beneficial from a project finance lens.
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🚨NVDA B200 rental prices spike +35% this month to all-time high > $6/hour
Sean James@Sean__James
@matthew_sigel How is the B200 looking?
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@DustinHuntwn Interesting post! I agree with the holding back on announcements aspect; however, I completely disagree with the notion of project-level financing. You're incorrect, not over $1b, instead it's 698m USD. The difference matters! The facilities next are either PC or Sharon. *NFA
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$BITF Expecting some major news as we head into the 4th month of the year, especially with over $1 billion in cash on hand.
Ben has clearly been holding back on big announcements until the rebrand is complete. Permitting across the portfolio should be much further along by now.
So the big question is — outside of Washington, which site is dropping next? Sharron, Quebec, or Panther Creek?
Will Ben go ahead and sign an early contract in Washington just to get momentum going on the other sites? Or do they line up more project funding to push everything forward, on top of that $1B war chest?
Another $400–500 million in project loans for the other sites would be ideal. They don’t want to get too leveraged without revenue coming in, but they also can’t afford to sit still and do nothing.
I think we’ll see more project funding announcements soon, along with meaningful updates on the other sites.Still believe Ben is waiting until summer for the Washington deal to get the best possible terms. Once that contract is signed, they can comfortably raise more equity through convertible notes.
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@McnallieM @hashoveride @Bitfarms_io @power_analys1s @cazenove_uk Also, ask them to share some colour on the project finance of phase 2 PC (300 MW) with LTV of 70% plus Moses Lake and future developments including Sharon's 110 MW, working capital isn't sufficient nor debt on the project finance given no contracted deal. Please and thank you!
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@McnallieM @hashoveride @Bitfarms_io @power_analys1s @cazenove_uk @McnallieM: I have been covering this company for a while. Please ask about the conversion between ISA and ESA power agreement at PC. We need more information on the load studies. Also, will Phase 1 be funded via working capital (50 MW * $8-10m USD). Thanks!
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Hosting @hashoveride CEO @Bitfarms_io on the @power_analys1s podcast April 1st to cover Q4 Earnings & Keel Infrastructure rebrand!!! $BITF $KEEL
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@Bitfarms_io Rather than pointless gibberish, this is vitally important to the transition given its footprint in Pennsylvania and government framework. Happy to share more if anyone's interested! @Bitfarms_io @hashoveride @TheKamaHsutra @StephenZeiner @chinoalemano
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Bitfarms shareholders, your vote matters!
Help us finalize our strategic pivot to the U.S. and rebrand as Keel Infrastructure. Our Board unanimously recommends voting FOR the proposed Arrangement.
Learn more: investor.bitfarms.com/bitfarms-us-re…
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@chinoalemano FYI - I can appreciate your post; HOWEVER, I posted my tweet WAY BEFORE your post. Please fact check before saying inaccurate information. I posted it at 8 whereas your post was 12.
I NEVER repost your information.
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JUST IN: $BITF - Moses Lake approved.
"Based upon the above Findings of Fact and Conclusion of Law, and subject to full compliance with the Conditions of Approval, PLN2025-0092 is hereby APPROVED."
Moses Lake.
Approved.
Hopefully deal soon.
Are you ready?
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