₿en Gagnon AKA Hashoveride@hashoveride
Good afternoon farmers!
Glad to be back on X after my blackout period (technically my blackout ended Monday the 17th but I had a very busy week speaking with institutional investors and revising our strategy through 2030). Because so much has happened since I entered blackout I would like to provide my thoughts on the market in the interim.
The macro environment for the last few weeks has obviously been weak but when you are dealing with multi-year infrastructure projects and decade-long investment cycles short-term market conditions do not impact long-term fundamentals. To the contrary, panic in the markets like we have been seeing for a few weeks is exactly what is needed to test support levels, hit a reset in charts, establish new entry positions, cut interest rates, restart QE and go risk on into midterms which I strongly believe is coming in the months ahead. This is a very bullish setup for 2026.
In times like these it’s important to take a step back and see the forest through the trees. Take a look at the charts attached that show the universe of publicly traded companies that I am following in HPC/AI (QTD and YTD). As of the time of writing this we are basically flat QTD (albeit down from a peak over $6 in October) and we are up ~73% YTD. Almost everyone is up YTD but QTD performance has pulled back across the board.
Emerging markets like HPC/AI are incredibly volatile and without volatility you would have no reward as an investor. Case in point take a look at $AMZN who has one of the biggest data center business in the world but diversification as one of the largest retailers in the world. They have one of the best performances QTD up 2.7% but they are at the bottom of the barrel YTD only up 2.6%. With risk comes reward and YTD $BITF is outperforming the biggest names $GOOGL, $NVDA, $ORCL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META and $BTC. Why? Because we are solving a very valuable problem, the bottleneck that is slowing down the growth of HPC/AI and the value created in solving that problem is transformative.
At Bitfarms we believe that the biggest limitation between humans and computers/data is the interface. We also believe that improving the interface drives humanity forward.
In the early days you had to write computer programs with index cards that you punched holes in and had to arrange in meticulous order. When programming went from that to human language it significantly improved the interface and unleashed a wave of productivity and adoption.
When people were first using the internet everything had to be shared directly. When google started crawling web pages and made the internet actually searchable, it changed the interface again unleashing another wave of productivity and adoption.
When Apple first introduced the iPhone, it changed the interface on how we interact on the go. The internet went from something only accessible at a desk to available in the palm of your hand whenever and wherever you needed it. This again unleashed a wave of productivity and adoption.
With AI you no longer need to understand how computers think, computers now understand how you think.
This is by far the biggest leap forward in the interface yet and we haven’t even scratched the surface of what’s possible and how AI will be deployed, utilized and adopted. This is a revolution that will play out over years and decades, not days.
So while mainstream news puts out article after article comparing AI to the dot.com bubble, you may ask yourself did the internet and ecommerce peak at the dot.com bubble? No, the industry is worth exponentially more today than it was during the peak of the dot.com era.
If you could freeze time and walk up to a wave you could stand so close to it that you would only see bubbles but that's a matter of perspective. Take a step back, change your perspective and you would only see the wave. This is very common at the beginning of fundamental paradigm shifts because capital is trying to position itself effectively amidst a new reality at the same time that it is trying to understand that same new reality.
Will some companies be overvalued as capital tries to simultaneously understand and position itself in this paradigm shift? Yes. Does that mean we are in a bubble and AI has peaked? Absolutely not.
The reality is that while many people use AI daily the amount of value created by consumers pales in comparison to the value that will be created by enterprises when they apply AI. And while most corporations are talking about how they will apply AI to reduce costs, increase productivity or restructure workflows most of these are in pilot stages. Compared to what will be done in the coming 5-10 years it doesn’t even round to 1%. It rounds to zero. That’s the wave.
It's important to keep perspective in mind during paradigm shifts. Lots of money can and will be made by flipping and day trading but true wealth is created through vision to see out years in the future and executing against that vision with conviction.
The current situation reminds me of when Mark Zuckerberg was offered a Billion dollars for Facebook by Yahoo. Yahoo wanted Facebook because they saw it’s potential and wanted a great deal. Mark could have made a bunch of money in a very short period of time but he never really entertained the Billion. At the time people thought he was crazy but he wasn't. They just didn’t have his vision for what the future held and the conviction that what he was building was revolutionary. That didn't make him crazy it made him able to do things inconceivable to other people.
This is where Bitfarms is today, looking out at the future of this industry with vision and conviction.
We know what the future holds.
We know the value of what we own.
We know the value of what we are building.
I'm bullish.
