
IONQ Long (Gabe)
351 posts


@DesFrontierTech Perhaps software was the wrong term. Just something to pass the computation onto another machine in the daisy chain before decoherence occurs. Sounds like they are already doing that. But it sounds like there's room for improvement.
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Good instinct. The catch is decoherence is more than timing. It's when the quantum state is lost. Once that happens, the information is gone. Software can't save it by passing it to another machine. What engineers actually do is use error correction, move the state carefully between systems, and design hardware that keeps it stable long enough to keep going. You can plan around decoherence, but you can't avoid it with software. This is a long way of saying you don't outrun decoherence with software, you manage it with architecture.
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@cb_doge I'm sure the mega-corps will spend hundreds of billions to develop and build those robots and then just give them away for free. LOL. Give me an effing break.
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ELON MUSK: "In the future, the robots will make so many robots, that they will actually saturate all human needs, meaning you won't be able to even think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point, like there will be such an abundance of goods and services. There'll be more robots than people. I think everyone on earth is going to have one humanoid robot because you would want a robot to watch over your kids, take care of your pet, take care of elderly parents.
I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. Definitely we are in the most interesting time in history."
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@beffjezos "Deep moats compound over longer timescales." -- Indeed
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@SpacBobby Hope they can pick up the pace. 1 every 6 weeks isn't going to cut it.
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@HannaSuds Excellent, Hanna! We all appreciate your write-ups. Great times ahead!
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@DesFrontierTech I would imagine what IonQ is striving to do is about as hard a task as any startup could take on. It's like starting 10 complicated tech business all at the same time. Crazy.
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At some point serious technology companies stop optimizing for possibility and start taking responsibility for their hardest constraints.
Manufacturing, security, iteration speed, and supply chain trust. The unglamorous layers that determine how quickly systems can be improved, and whether they can actually be relied on.
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$IONQ Wow, listen to Katie Arrington (Former CIO at DOW) talk about her first week at IONQ:
"Big things are coming for IONQ, keep on the news wire, you'll be seeing some stuff in the coming days and weeks that are really going to blow your mind and you'll understand why I moved".
linkedin.com/posts/katie-ar…
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@ASTS_SpaceMob The best investors are those who lost their trading account password.
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@SpacBobby Wish I had gotten in way back then. Established my position in the low $40s. But I'm HODL'ing long term!!!
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$IONQ Interesting potential acquisition target for IONQ.
"DARPA is funding startup Diffraqtion to develop what the company said in an announcement today is “a first-of-its-kind quantum camera” capable of providing near-real time imagery at “up to” 20 times faster than that enabled by current optical surveillance cameras.
Diffraqtion hopes to launch its first space domain awareness satellite, called Galileo-1, in 2028. A second satellite, for Earth observation and Golden Dome missions, is planned for launch in 2029."
breakingdefense.com/2026/01/darpa-…
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@HannaSuds Build the networks, the rest follows. Crawl > walk > run.
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@guo_lin99725 My impression is that D-Wave is grasping as straws to try to regain ground. Too late, though. IonQ has already lapped everyone about 3 times.
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$qbts vs $ionq: the technical showdown (who prints 10x?)
on jan 7, 2026, d-wave entered the chat with a $550m check. they bought quantum circuits inc to challenge the benchmark ionq set back in oct 2025 (99.99% fidelity).
here is the brutal truth about their tech stacks. they are solving the same problem (noise) with two completely different religions.
1. the enemy is noisequantum computers are fragile. if a qubit sneezes, the math breaks.
to get a 10x stock return, you need a machine that can run for hours without crashing.
2. $qbts (d-wave): the "smart keyboard" (tech: dual-rail)d-wave is betting that perfect hardware is impossible, so they built hardware that admits when it fails.
the tech (dual-rail): they use two physical components to make one qubit.
the analogy: imagine a keyboard that physically locks up if you press the wrong key.
the mechanics: in standard computers, an error is a "bit flip" (a silent lie). in d-wave’s new stack, an error is an "erasure" (a blank space).
the edge: an "erasure" is 100x easier to fix than a "bit flip." it allows them to build a fault-tolerant computer with fewer qubits.
the bet: efficiency. they don't need to be perfect; they just need to be self-aware.
3. $ionq: the "chip factory" (tech: eqc & 99.99%)ionq is betting on manufacturing supremacy.
the tech (oct 2025 breakthrough): they hit 99.99% fidelity.
that is the "four nines." it means the hardware is nearly flawless.
the secret weapon (oxford ionics): this is the part most investors miss. they replaced lasers with electricity (electronic qubit control - eqc).
the analogy: old ionq was a physics lab filled with mirrors and lasers. new ionq is a standard silicon chip.
the edge: because they use electricity instead of lasers, they can print these chips in standard semiconductor fabs (like tsmc).
the bet: scale. they turned a science project into a semiconductor product.
4. head-to-head: technical stacking
error handling:
$ionq: prevention. (make the hardware so good it doesn't break).
$qbts: detection. (let it break, but catch it instantly).
scalability:
$ionq: "semiconductor scaling." (print more chips).
$qbts: "architectural scaling." (use fewer qubits to do more work).
5. the verdict: who gets the 10x?
the case for $ionq (the "nvidia" path)
they are technically ahead. 99.99% is real, and it happened in 2025.
moving to "electronic control" means they can ship volume.
probability of 10x: high certainty, slower burn. they are the standard-bearer.
the case for $qbts (the "turnaround" path)
market perception is lagging. people still think d-wave is just a "logistics" company.
if "dual-rail" works in 2026, they unlock error correction cheaper and faster than anyone else.
probability of 10x: lower certainty, violent upside. if they prove the dual-rail thesis, this stock is wildly underpriced.
my take:$ionq has the better hardware (semiconductor manufacturability). $qbts has the smarter architecture (erasure conversion).
in a gold rush, i want the company that owns the factory. right now, that looks like $ionq, but $qbts just bought a map to a shortcut.
#quantumcomputing #stocks #qbts #ionq #techinvesting #deepdive #hardware

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