If it's such a 'simple military maneuver' to clear the Strait of Hormuz, and NATO is just a paper tiger without the US, then why can't our military clear it on their own?
I'm going to say my catchphrase again.
You all know it was coming.
Trump has no idea what he's doing.
@realassetrebel@FirstSquawk@Analyst_G Yup … all the fear mongering the administration yapped about … and 🇷🇺 + 🇨🇳 didn’t have to do a damn thing; but sit back and watch 😂😓
JUST IN: The Strait of Hormuz blocks the fertiliser from shipping. China just blocked it from being replaced.
Beijing has instructed exporters to suspend overseas shipments of nitrogen and potassium fertiliser blends. Urea. NPK mixes. The molecules that American, Indian, Bangladeshi, and African farmers need to plant are now gated at two chokepoints simultaneously: a 21-mile waterway controlled by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders, and a government directive issued from Zhongnanhai that requires no radio at all.
One third of global seaborne fertiliser trade transits Hormuz. China is the world’s largest fertiliser producer. When the strait closed and China suspended exports in the same month, the global food system lost its primary supply route and its primary alternative supplier at the same time. There is no third source at this scale. There is no backup to the backup.
Urea has surged roughly 40 percent since the war began. CBOT March futures settled at 610.50. The peak at New Orleans touched $683. Those prices were set by the Hormuz blockade alone. China’s ban adds a second floor underneath them. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, Chinese urea would not flow until Beijing lifts the directive. Even if Beijing lifted the directive, the strait would still need to reopen, insurance to normalise, and vessels to be available. The two gates operate independently. Both must open for the molecule to move.
China’s logic is transparent. Hormuz disrupted global supply. Prices surged. Chinese domestic farmers face the same planting windows as everyone else. Beijing chose to protect its own agriculture by hoarding the molecule the rest of the world needs. This is the same country that is simultaneously drawing commercial crude reserves at a million barrels per day, running military exercises near Taiwan, receiving discounted Iranian oil through the permissioned strait, and restricting the phosphate exports it suspended months ago. Every decision serves one objective: China first. The rest of the world absorbs the shortage.
The American farmer is now squeezed from two directions. The Gulf urea he used to buy cannot transit the strait. The Chinese urea that could have replaced it is embargoed by Beijing. Domestic US production covers roughly 75 percent of normal needs, but normal needs assumed Gulf and Chinese imports filling the gap. The gap is now unfillable on any timeline that matters for spring planting.
USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres. Soybeans rising to 85 million. The RFS mandate consumes 43 percent of a shrinking corn crop. The cattle herd sits at 86.2 million, a 75-year low. The protein cascade runs from corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the grocery shelf. China’s ban did not create that cascade. The Hormuz blockade created it. China’s ban removed the last exit ramp.
Oman crude at $154. Brent at $102. WTI at $93. Gold at $5,000. The Fed holding at 3.50 to 3.75 with PCE revised to 2.7. Trump telling Israel to stop hitting gas fields. Iran threatening to burn the Gulf to ashes. Four countries’ energy infrastructure offline. And now the world’s largest fertiliser producer has locked its warehouse and told every farmer on Earth that the key is in Beijing, not for sale, and not available until further notice.
Two gates. One molecule. No alternative. The calendar closes in four weeks.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Trump has got a real economic problem on his hands, and all the hubris in the world won’t fix it.
Mortgage data today was very weak with 30 year rates back above 6.3% and loans collapsing from January. Housing is cooked and like I’ve told my readers for well over a year, a harsh price correction in housing was inevitable.
Then, PPI numbers are shockingly bad. PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, which is an annualized rate above 8%.
Tariffs from last year are finally starting to impact the economy in a meaningful way. It’s always important to remember (and respect) the 9-12 month lag effect before the economy will authentically reflect changes to input variables.
So here we are: rapidly increasing layoffs and corporate bankruptcies, private lending in free-fall, tech companies no longer able to BS their way to higher highs, extremely volatile energy prices, and now the resumption of meaningful inflation.
When John Williams first played the SUPERMAN march for Richard Donner, they said the music literally “says” the word “Superman,” which convinced everyone it was the definitive theme.
@rawsalerts Trump is right—secure the Strait of Hormuz NOW! No more Iranian blackmail on global oil. America First means strong leadership protecting our interests. Let's go! 🇺🇸 #MAGA
🚨#BREAKING: Officials say that President Donald Trump plans to take full control of the Strait of Hormuz by force, in a move that could also last several weeks
Crossing names off the list is good - doing it shoulder to shoulder with our American friends is even better.
Good to see Ambassador @GovMikeHuckabee. Always a pleasure.
🇮🇱🇺🇸