Multipolarity The Podcast

Thank you @jimmycarr

Last night, I recorded a thrilling episode of @MultipolarPod with @policytensor. I was buzzing for hours afterwards and couldn't sleep. But it won't be to everybody's taste. Why? Because I wanted to be one of the first to have a serious discussion on public record about the geopolitical consequences of the Iran War. These are huge and are simply not being discussed or even recognised. It is as though people just cannot grasp it. Therefore, I got giga-brain @policytensor to basically walk me, and thus the listeners, through the academic literature on all of this—the basis of American power, the postwar role of the US in the Middle East, how regional orders respond upon the emergence of a dominant power, the US position in East Asia/the Western Pacific, warfighting doctrines, and much more. As we went through this, I asked my dumb questions to try to coax out how it would apply to the current situation. Through this process, we built a picture, as best we could for such a non-linear situation, of the strategic contours of the coming years. Not a usual episode of @MultipolarPod. Those of you who like to move above and beyond the usual level of discourse, or those of you who would like a more serious intellectual framework for what's happening, or those of you who just like nerding out, will love it as much as I did. But I'll confess that those who like easy listening, or feel happy to have left the tutor room behind at university, probably won't. I think it was a necessary conversation. I hope it sets the foundation for a serious discussion (as much as any such episode involving an ignoramus like me could), because it really feels that nobody, even in the specialist end of the legacy media, have quite grasped what has happened.

Seconded for the most part. Let me add a few notes. — There are three theories of air power. We know Douhetist terror bombing has never destroyed the will of the enemy to fight. Decapitation has now failed. As long as the US remains ‘up in the air’ there is only one path to avoiding strategic defeat: winning the interdiction war to disarm Iran. — The interdiction theory of victory is ‘analytically attractive’ because it empirically testable in real time. If Iranian strike tempo is dwindling to zero, the US is winning; otherwise it is losing outright. — The all-important interdiction war is going very poorly. I look at the attached map every day from ACLED, the gold standard of conflict data (acleddata.com/iran-crisis-li…). Iranian strike tempo shows no sign of dwindling. To the contrary, depletion of interceptor inventories and the use of heavier missiles has dramatically increased the effectiveness of Iranian missile strikes, as we are seeing in the strikes on Israel. — The Iranians’ interdiction/counterforce campaign has been surprisingly successful. At least 10 radars have been destroyed, partially blinding US forces and interceptor systems. US bases in the region have been largely evacuated, forcing the US to use European bases. — There have been some big kills. Two dozen heavy drones and a half a dozen manned aircraft have been lost to Iranian fire/accidents, not clear which, including an F-35. A mighty carrier group has been put out of business. — Iran enjoys escalation dominance. This was confirmed when Trump had to walk back his ultimatum. Iran has a very powerful threat at the top of the escalation ladder: the O&G infrastructure and water desalinization systems in the gulf are both under Iranian fire control. — Iran holds horizontal escalation options in reserve. The Houthis have their ‘fingers on the trigger.’ That is a deterrent to keep the Saudis out of the war, and may be used at any time to expand the war and impose greater costs on the West. — Iran retains a firm grip on the Hormuz weapon. No serious military option to retake Hormuz exists as long as the interdiction war is not won. No matter where you land the marines, they will be fully exposed to Iranian fire, including artillery fire. US force protection requirements, ultimately a function of casualty intolerance, mean that the Kharg idea etc are just not going to fly. — The United States is at a crossroads. Either it swallows this military humiliation and accepts a ceasefire largely on Iranian terms, or it must send in ground forces to in a bid to retake Hormuz and restore US military prestige. — If the US chooses a negotiated ceasefire, Iran will emerge as a regional hegemon with the Hormuz weapon firmly in its hands; and, having defeated the US in a high-intensity conventional war, as a great power in the international system. — If the US chooses to escalate to a ground war, the war will last for years. This is because both force protection and the overriding objective of fire suppression will drive ever greater commitment of ground forces. But the US cannot win the ground war under any circumstances because the division math (x.com/policytensor/s…) is even more forbidding than the drone math (x.com/policytensor/s…). This means that the choice facing the aggressor is between accepting strategic defeat now at limited costs, or later at far, far higher costs. — So the United States has already suffered a catastrophic military defeat. The multipolar world was a hypothesis until last month. Now it is a demonstrated military fact. It has obtained due to the diffusion of military technology (x.com/policytensor/s…). The US monopoly in precision-strike is now gone. Deterrence in Asia is now dead. This cannot but fail to have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, which I will lay out in detail in a forthcoming interview on @MultipolarPod with @admcollingwood later today.

Please keep enjoying the Multipolarity Brief - 800 hot words of analysis from @admcollingwood ever week, in your inbox, on Substack. Link below.

Issue 8 of the Multipolarity Brief is now live. 🇮🇷We underestimated Iran's reconnaissance-strike complex 🎃Trump has no good options left ⚠️Why Trump is likely to escalate even though it will make things worse ☢️Why nuclear weapons probably won't be used Link next post.

Is Bibi booboo? A new wave of rumours has him six feet under, backed by… videos of him looking basically fine? @philippilk & @admcollingwood welcome you to the AI hall of mirrors in new Multipolarity... youtu.be/HMtil9wlTxA

As Iran smoulders, ships burn in Hormuz, and TACO traders search for signals, we’re celebrating the end of the world in the only way we know how... @philippilk & @admcollingwood are here with brand new Multipolarity. youtu.be/TltlPqX91_k

On @MultipolarPod Substack I wrote a brief but I think concise overview of the overall structure of the war. 🇺🇸🇮🇷

Not loads to discuss this week in geopolitics, but @admcollingwood & @philippilk have managed to cobble something together. The one and only Malcom Kyeyune is back on brand new Multipolarity. Strap in, it's Gulf War 3... youtu.be/TPz3iN5GzE8

"Don't listen to them, babe. You do know a lot about geopolitics."

We need more than the vapid takes of legacy media and remain X accounts. IN HALF AN HOUR: Academic- and pro-level deep analysis from @firasmodad and @policytensor 🇮🇷Iran strategic calculus 🇺🇸Trump Admin position 🇨🇳Secondary effects — Russia; China x.com/i/spaces/1nKOL…

Sunni NATO on the march…

El Mencho. El Tuli. It’s all LOL until you realise that this is just the start. By targeting the cartels, the US has poked a hornet’s nest; And the hornets are on cocaine. @philippilk & @admcollingwood are back with a fresh serving of Multipolarity. youtu.be/RspryzgNxCU

Rumours of the destruction of Iran remain premature. Turns out it would take 10% of all the Tomahawks in the world to flatten three mullahs and an oil derrick. You saw @philippilk's tweets on the matter, now hear him discuss it with @admcollingwood... youtu.be/zYAiNBEHM3Y

Between his sweet nothings at the Munich Security Conference, it seemed like Marco Rubio was on his way out the door. Do Europe’s friends need to tell her this was a break up speech? New Multipolarity with @admcollingwood & @philippilk out now. youtu.be/zYAiNBEHM3Y

This week's Multipolarity Brief has landed. The Sound of Munich The Dhaka Knight Rises Europe's Missing Missiles Subscribe on substack. multipolaritypod.substack.com/p/multipolarit…

With rumours of an imminent attack continuing to swirl, what future is there for a post-Khamenei world? And do Iran’s neighbours even want the regime to fall? @firasmodad joins @admcollingwood on a brand new Multipolarity out now. youtu.be/zG8zkB34ttI

It looks like @FCDOGovUK might be forced to run with this. If it is accepted as true then British diplomacy has been completely compromised by Russian intelligence, as was the Blair and Brown government and the @UKLabour party generally. 🥵🌶️

1/ On the @MultipolarPod Substack I have just posted the definitive analysis of how the USD has now entered its terminal phase of decline as the hegemonic currency. Here is a brief thread summarising, but if you're interested read the entire post. CC @Brad_Setser.